Rick Sweet: Something is going on with Lara

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Anyone want to guess at numbers?  Something similar to Pratt’s deal?

[patrickgpe]

I agree an extension makes the most sense with Sweet saying he should be in the lineup tomorrow. Would be good news and I would imagine its less or the same as Pratt's.

[patrickgpe]

4 minutes ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

Anyone want to guess at numbers?  Something similar to Pratt’s deal?

in system rankings, Pratt is 4 and Lara is 5. As I just posted, I wouldn't be surprised if its identical or a hair less. 

[adambr2]

12 minutes ago, MoreTrife said:

Seems like a weird extension candidate. Why wouldn't we see how his stature and numbers translate to MLB? Pratt and Chourio are respectively at a premium position and felt like can't miss. Lara seems much more mirage.

Because once he’s a proven MLB commodity it’s a different conversation and different price point. I’m totally fine if we do 10 of these contracts.

If 3 turn out to be superstars. 4 turn out to be serviceable starters, and 3 turn out to be busts, we will come out way ahead.

I can understand some skepticism on Lara given his production before this season, but I have a lot of faith if the scouting department feels like he unlocked something.

Truth be told Pratt got his deal without really any proven offensive prowess.

 

[mrn1ceguy]

All these extensions could be the brewers thinking there will be a lot less years of control after the new cba.  It may be less about getting a good deal and more about ensuring 6-8 years of cost controlled players they have high confidence will be at least an average starter.

[sveumrules]

26 minutes ago, MoreTrife said:

Seems like a weird extension candidate. Why wouldn't we see how his stature and numbers translate to MLB? Pratt and Chourio are respectively at a premium position and felt like can't miss. Lara seems much more mirage.

Jackson has been much better in the corners (+14 DRS | +7 FRV in 1,795 innings) than in center (-4 DRS | +2 FRV in 803 innings) to this point. If they are indeed extending Lara it's a pretty good sign they believe he is at least a similar calibre defender to Jackson in the corners, but in CF instead. 

The closest comp for me given their respective size, plate discipline, speed, and defense is Frelick. Obviously off to bad start this year, so maybe not the most popular comp but here's the body of work (among 125 players min. 600 PA as OF since 2023)...

1,540 PA (26th) | 5.9 WAR (35th)
13.7 K% (7th) | .099 ISO (119th)
.264 AVG (29th) | .332 OBP (36th)
+7.5 BsR (22nd) | 97 wRC+ (81st)
+27 DRS | +17 FRV (both 3rd in RF)

So despite being a below average overall hitter with some of the worst power in the pool, Sal has still put up solid starter numbers on account of getting on base, running the bases and fielding well.

But why extend that guy? Well, when Sal was Lara's age he was still at Boston College, it would take him until the end of the following season before he got to AAA and put up the kind of numbers Lara is putting up now. Luis is also a switch hitter for whatever that is or isn't worth.

But the big one might just be that Lara sounds like a surefire CF. For his career Sal has a -14.1 run positional adjustment playing predominantly RF. Playing all his innings in CF instead of mostly RF would have been like a +5.4 positional adjustment instead. Add those two extra wins onto Sal's total and his 7.9 WAR would move him up to 22nd on that 2023 to present OF leaderboard.

Essentially boils down to his age relative to Sal & being a switch hitter should hopefully give him a higher ceiling at the plate, while his scouting reports as a top end defensive CF should give him a higher floor.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

39 minutes ago, mrn1ceguy said:

All these extensions could be the brewers thinking there will be a lot less years of control after the new cba.  It may be less about getting a good deal and more about ensuring 6-8 years of cost controlled players they have high confidence will be at least an average starter.

Would really make things interesting (if there is less control)

for the guys that come out hot out of the gate, this gets them to FA sooner, but also less of a chance for guys to prove themselves…

I would anticipate with less cost controlled years, more clubs (and potentially players)  seeing a mutual benefit to locking in pre-majors service deals.

all be told, might be a gravitational shift that puts more $$ in the pockets of younger players but also far less potential for 30+ year old players to cash in unless they are truly elite.   I actually prefer paying on potential rather than what was done in the past.  

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

I think Cooper Pratt is a good analogy here...

And I consequently don't expect that Pratt will be in AAA for the remainder of the season.

Lara based on his performance is already knocking on the door in a way which Pratt isn't. 

[Yaz19]

Lara be like.....

[patrickgpe]

1 hour ago, mrn1ceguy said:

All these extensions could be the brewers thinking there will be a lot less years of control after the new cba.  It may be less about getting a good deal and more about ensuring 6-8 years of cost controlled players they have high confidence will be at least an average starter.

I agree with you, but I think players know that is on the table so taking these deals is even more riskier than in the past because you can get PAID a year or 2 earlier. I do get why they take the money, since its guaranteed generational wealth if not wasted with no production yet in MLB to back up that paycheck. 

[adambr2]

Couple questions regarding this:

1) if an extension happens is it immediately necessary to clear a spot on the 40 for Lara?

2) would it make a promotion in the near future more likely, or no impact? It certainly wouldn’t make it less likely and if he’s added to the 40 that certainly helps but as we’ve seen with Pratt it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re coming up. Lara has outperformed Pratt considerably this season, though.

[wallus]

Just now, adambr2 said:

Couple questions regarding this:

1) if an extension happens is it immediately necessary to clear a spot on the 40 for Lara?

2) would it make a promotion in the near future more likely, or no impact? It certainly wouldn’t make it less likely and if he’s added to the 40 that certainly helps but as we’ve seen with Pratt it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re coming up. Lara has outperformed Pratt considerably this season, though.

1. Yes

2. I think the team is dangling promotion along with a possible extension. I would assume he would be called up not long after signing.

[markedman5]

The other thing to remember that these guys are so young that even if they out play the contract they can get a crack at free agency when they are still in their late 20s( assuming 2 team option years like Pratt).

So yes they have to balance security vs risk but if they turn out to be great they can still get a big payday.

[rickh150]

I cannot believe it’s about an extension….but ok. Seems odd to sit a week to get an extension de midseason.

[igor67]

Well maybe it started with that bug going around. Maybe Lara was laid low and in his suffering called his agent and said "I need that Pratt deal"

[adambr2]

7 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

I cannot believe it’s about an extension….but ok. Seems odd to sit a week to get an extension de midseason.

It’s a bit unusual , but not unprecedented, for players to sign extensions during the season.

In Lara’s case (if it is indeed an extension), the logic seems to track. It’s unlikely the Brewers would have been interested in a long-term deal with Lara before this season.

As the season progressed it’s plausible that the Brewers saw enough to believe that this is someone they wanted to build around and approach Lara’s representation to gauge interest in the last week or two.

[patrickgpe]

55 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

I cannot believe it’s about an extension….but ok. Seems odd to sit a week to get an extension de midseason.

I don't think it's unreasonable for the Brewers, after they get the Pratt extension done, to approach Lara and see if he'd be interested in a similar deal.