How Should Brewers Pitch Dodgers' Fastball-Hunting Offense in NLCS?

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

After posting a 1.80 ERA and 3.47 FIP against the Padres in the NLDS, the Brewers' pitching staff faces a more daunting assignment against the Dodgers in a rematch of last year's NLCS. That, at least, is how it looks at first glance. The Padres were a capable offense, finishing the regular season with a 102 wRC+, but the Dodgers' 111 wRC+ ranked second in baseball.

Season-long numbers can be misleading for projecting a playoff series, though. The Padres entered October hot, ranking second with a 119 wRC+ in the second half. The Dodgers will make the Brewers work for every out, but the Padres already did that for most of the NLDS. In that sense, Los Angeles won't be a new challenge.

It won't be from a matchup-specific perspective, either. During that second-half surge, the Padres led the league with a .358 xwOBA and 0.57 runs per 100 pitches against fastballs. The Brewers' pitching coaches prioritize fastballs because they're easiest to throw for strikes; no team has thrown fastballs with a higher percentage of their total offerings since 2023.

Facing a team that was crushing fastballs, the Brewers stuck to their approach. After throwing fastballs 66.4% of the time in the regular season, they threw them 64.9% of the time in the NLDS. It worked swimmingly, as the Padres managed just a .294 wOBA against those heaters.

They face a similar matchup against the Dodgers, who were easily the best fastball hitters in baseball this year. Even during a second-half dropoff, their .356 wOBA against heaters trailed only the Padres.

Team	FB wOBA	FB xwOBA	FB Run Value/100
Dodgers	.363	.370	0.397
Cubs	.355	.346	0.306
Brewers	.361	.350	0.201
Rockies	.353	.340	0.152
Tigers	.352	.360	0.141

If the NLDS was any indication, the Brewers won't back down from throwing fastballs to fastball hitters.

"By executing pitches, that stops offenses," Pat Murphy said before a team workout on Saturday afternoon. "We're still going to pitch to our strengths, and we're going to try to go—it's like any other fight. It's like, styles matter, but we can only do what we can do."

Leaning on each pitcher's strengths is the correct starting point. The Brewers boast some of baseball's best fastballs. Jacob Misiorowski's four-seamer led all pitches in run value this year, and Logan Henderson's four-seamer was 19th. They also have plenty of excellent secondary pitches, which means they have room to maximize matchups by using velocity more strategically. Here's how the hitters the Brewers are most likely to see in the NLCS fared against different pitch types from right-handed pitchers (minimum 80 pitches per pitch type), measured with expected wOBA:

Hitter	Side	Four-Seam FB	Sinker	Cutter	Curveball	Slider	Sweeper	Changeup	Splitter
Mookie Betts	R	.347	.422	.301		.271	.376
Tommy Edman	L	.254	.372	.431	.234	.286		.286
Freddie Freeman	L	.391	.371	.463	.340	.374		.343	.352
Teoscar Hernandez	R	.353	.344	.313		.275	.136	.405
Max Muncy	L	.450	.442	.472	.270	.340	.098	.314	.201
Shohei Ohtani	L	.416	.550	.498	.295	.404	.423	.346	.279
Andy Pages	R	.296	.339	.436		.270	.319	.396
Miguel Rojas	R	.316	.288			.278
Dalton Rushing	L	.341	.343	.419		.464		.285
Will Smith	R	.507	.487	.591		.280	.271
Kyle Tucker	L	.350	.429	.370	.347	.301	.263	.269	.234

Here's that same breakdown against left-handed pitchers:

Hitter	Side	Four-Seam FB	Sinker	Cutter	Curveball	Slider	Sweeper	Changeup
Mookie Betts	R	.379	.394		.273	.170		.351
Tommy Edman	R	.259			.103			.277
Freddie Freeman	L	.304	.328	.469		.311	.209
Teoscar Hernandez	R	.413	.573	.300	.268			.361
Max Muncy	L	.386	.341			.310
Shohei Ohtani	L	.266	.533			.261	.318	.579
Andy Pages	R	.407	.488	.461		.369		.272
Miguel Rojas	R	.303	.372	.328		.442		.242
Dalton Rushing	L	.220	.419
Will Smith	R	.361						.409
Kyle Tucker	L	.401	.292	.243		.328	.490

This is an incomplete, imperfect snapshot. Pitch-specific xwOBA only looks at pitches that ended a plate appearance, so it ignores productive takes, called strikes, and whiffs that occur earlier in counts. Still, it's a decent starting point for scouting reports.

A few things stand out. Most Dodgers hitters punish sinkers, regardless of pitcher handedness. That shouldn't preclude some of the Brewers' best sinkerballers (Antonio Senzatela, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby) from throwing their primary fastballs, but their multi-fastball guys (Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan, Dustin May, Chad Patrick) may want to lean toward other pitches. On the flip side, many Los Angeles hitters struggle against short sliders. That means Drohan and DL Hall could play big roles in the series. Uribe has also gone more slider-heavy in certain matchups over the last two years, and this could be one of them.

To advance to their first World Series since 1982, the Brewers must beat the Dodgers with their best on both sides of the ball. Misiorowski shouldn't suddenly become a junkballer, and the relievers behind him shouldn't pitch scared. But when the Brewers have the arsenal to adapt, they should consider mixing things up if the Dodgers' swings call for more secondaries.

"We can't worry about changing what we do," Murphy said. "We just have to go in and be a little better at the things we do."

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