Jack Stern

Image courtesy of Jon Endow-Imagn Images Multiple reports indicated that the Brewers were in on the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes before the Tigers traded him to the Dodgers. Hours before Monday afternoon's trade deadline, manager Pat Murphy confirmed that Milwaukee pushed to acquire the most notable name on this year's market. "I know we went after trying to get that player," Murphy said. He made clear that it wasn't a half-baked pursuit or a due-diligence check-in on Detroit's asking price. From Murphy's comments, it sounded like the Brewers felt they made a compelling offer—possibly one they felt exceeded the three-player offer the Dodgers made. "I don't know exactly the details of it, but I know this: it isn't as simple as, 'That's a better package,'" Murphy said. "It's not as simple as that. There's a lot more layers to it. I don't understand it fully, but I think this is a bigger situation, rather than, 'Well, that was a better package.' To say the Brewers didn't try is simply incorrect." Murphy wasn't implying that a conspiracy was afoot, of course. He just meant that teams accept some trades and decline others based on idiosyncrasies of evaluation and based on some externalities. That the Tigers took the Dodgers' offer doesn't mean that, objectively, that offer contained more talent or future value than the one the Brewers made. "I think we were prepared to push a lot of chips in," said president of baseball operations and general manager Matt Arnold, speaking generally after declining to discuss specific trade targets and negotiations. Yet, Skubal became the latest star to join the large-market, high-spending, repeat-champion Dodgers on Saturday night—two full working days ahead of the deadline—in exchange for a polarizing package that many pundits deemed light. Murphy's remarks will further fuel theories of shady operations making it happen, but that's a discussion for a different time. For the Brewers' front office, the immediate reality was that Skubal was off the table, and they needed to look elsewhere for reinforcements. "When you're in on a lot of stuff, there's certainly some things where you come up short, and you just got to pick yourself up and dust yourself off, and try to do what you can to get the next thing," Arnold said. "And ultimately, I think we were able to accomplish a lot over the last 48 hours to get some stuff done to really help the team." That included a deal with the division-rival Cardinals for right-hander Dustin May and left-hander JoJo Romero, and a trade with the Rockies for breakout reliever Antonio Senzatela. The trio satisfies Milwaukee's greatest need for the rest of the regular season: pitching. The Brewers rank third in baseball in ERA- and first in FIP-, but several key hurlers are facing workload concerns. "I think, especially this time of year, you can never have too much pitching," Arnold said. "I think the guys that we got are pretty battle-tested, experienced guys." First came the deal for May and Romero, which cost what many deemed an overpay in breakout prospects Josiah Ragsdale (Brewer Fanatic's No. 16 prospect) and Alexander Frias. However, it could be that the Brewers' internal evaluations of Ragsdale and Frias, who were behind a few other outfielders on the prospect depth chart, are lower than the Cardinals'. Both May and Romero have steep power sinkers, and the former has upside after rediscovering his upper-90s velocity this year. The deal could age better than the industry expects it to for the Brewers. "It's hard to make trades. It's not as easy as, 'Well, just this guy for this guy or this guy.' It's just not that easy," Murphy said. "And the rating of the prospects and all that kind of stuff, be careful. That's been proven not to be very valid, specifically." May should provide an upgrade over an inconsistent Brandon Sproat in the rotation, while allowing the Brewers to manage the innings of Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison, and Shane Drohan. Romero will be out a few more weeks as he recovers from an appendectomy. Senzatela, who has broken out as a multi-inning reliever by adding velocity and supporting his four-seam fastball with a new cutter and sinker, will join the bullpen immediately. He'll ease the strain on Aaron Ashby and Chad Patrick, who have recently been inconsistent after heavy usage. With 50 regular-season games left to play, the Brewers are looking to secure a first-round postseason bye while holding off the Cubs in the NL Central. To maximize their success for those 50 games, they needed more pitching depth. At minimum, May, Romero, and Senzatela are solid additions, and each has the upside to become even more impactful. However, for the Brewers to take down the Dodgers or another juggernaut in a short October series, they arguably need more power bats who can change a game with one swing. Their 101 home runs are the fewest in baseball, and their .144 isolated power ranks 27th. They probably would have been well-served by adding a bat, but it's easy to see why they didn't. There were few true power hitters traded, and pitching was a greater need to reach the postseason. Furthermore, the clearest way to upgrade the offense would be replacing Christian Yelich (92 wRC+) at DH, a move that could have negative implications off the field. It was not a fantastic deadline, but it was among the Brewers' best in recent seasons. They went fishing in deeper waters than usual this year, and after coming up empty on Skubal, they struck their usual balance of improving their big-league roster without losing any of their blue-chip prospects. "We certainly talked about doing some irresponsible stuff as well, but I would say we tried to thread the needle," Arnold said. The tight-knit clubhouse will try to weave their way through the rest of the campaign with the help Arnold found in the eye of that needle. View full article

Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-Imagn Images The Brewers began their trade deadline activity on Saturday morning with a four-player deal with the Guardians. Reliever Craig Yoho and outfielder Blake Perkins went to Cleveland, while catcher Bo Naylor and reliever Codi Heuer joined Milwaukee. In optioning both Naylor and Heuer to Triple-A Nashville, the Brewers reinforced that the deal is (for now) a swap of peripheral players. None of the four had clear roles in their former organizations, but each may be more appreciated by their new teams. Naylor is the most notable piece coming back. The Guardians' first-round pick in 2018, he enjoyed a productive rookie year, hitting .237/.339/.470 (123 wRC+) in 67 games. He didn't make much loud contact, though, and his approach of catching fastballs out in front to pull them in the air left him vulnerable against secondary pitches. Those aspects of his profile quickly caught up to him, and he's hit just .192/.266/.351 (74 wRC+) since the start of 2024. Patrick Bailey, Austin Hedges, and David Fry all surpassed Naylor on Cleveland's catching depth chart, but he has a clearer path to playing time in Milwaukee. Reports have been mixed on whether the Brewers are shopping incumbent backup catcher Gary Sánchez, but if he's dealt in the next 50 hours or so, Naylor could take his place. Even if Sánchez stays, he'll be a free agent after this season, and William Contreras will hit the open market after 2027. Once that catching core thins, Naylor could be ahead of Jeferson Quero as the next man up. Quero was an excellent defensive catcher with a promising bat, but his development was stalled by a shoulder injury two years ago, and Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic report that the reason why he's been exclusively a DH since June 28 is a biceps injury. Even if Quero rounds into better form on both offense and defense, Naylor could have more upside, particularly at the plate. Despite his subpar hard-hit rate in the big leagues, he was scouted with above-average raw power. The Brewers diverge from much of baseball in emphasizing deep contact and an all-fields approach over pulling the ball in the air, so they could make Naylor's bat more consistent and tap into some doubles power with a more balanced approach. In any case, Naylor looks like a potential supporting piece for the stretch run, then a more important long-term piece if things go according to plan. The 26-year-old is controlled through 2030 and is first-time arbitration-eligible this winter, but the Brewers could push that back one more year if he remains in Triple-A for the rest of the season. He's more likely to help than Perkins, whose defense in center field and left-handed swing cratered after he fractured his shin last spring. It's the opposite tradeoff in swapping Yoho for Heuer, as the former is a rookie reliever with enticing stuff, while the latter is a non-tender candidate in a few months. After the Brewers selected him in the eighth round of the 2023 draft, Yoho skyrocketed through the minor leagues with an arsenal of elite east-west movement and debuted last season. The writing was on the wall for his time in Milwaukee, though, as the big-league coaching staff remained reluctant to trust him over concerns about his control and whether his stuff could deceive more disciplined hitters. The Brewers will replace him with Heuer, who owns a passable career 3.76 ERA, 3.97 FIP, and 4.20 SIERA but has spent most of the season with Triple-A Columbus. As a 30-year-old journeyman, he lacks Yoho's upside, but the Brewers probably believe his arsenal gives him a higher floor as a middle reliever they can shuttle between Nashville and Milwaukee. Like Yoho, Heuer throws from a low right-handed slot and naturally pronates when he releases the baseball, giving him a solid fastball-changeup combination. The difference is that he has less raw movement and a tighter velocity spread. His mid-90s fastball runs less than Yoho's, his changeup has less downward movement and is 8 mph faster on average, and his short gyro slider is more useful than the big 77-mph curveball Yoho could not control. The Brewers' top assignment for Yoho was to throw more strikes. They also felt hitters could pick up his changeup too early because of its low velocity and big movement, prompting Pat Murphy to say last month that it was "not a swing-and-miss" pitch, even though Yoho has gotten whiffs on 33.1% of changeup swings in his limited big-league career. With shorter shapes and closer velocity across his pitches, Heuer may be better-equipped right now to throw strikes and make his pitches look similar to each other out of his hand. According to the tunneling metrics at Baseball Prospectus, batters have an 82.4% chance of correctly identifying Yoho's changeup by the time they must decide to swing or take, and a 69.5% chance of identifying his sinker. For Heuer's changeup and four-seamer, those chances are 56% and 78.7%, respectively. Even though those pitches have less actual movement, their perceived depth to the hitter is similar to Yoho. Standing 6-foot-5, Heuer is three inches taller than Yoho and throws from a slightly higher slot. His pitches move downward less, but because he's throwing them from a higher release, they approach home plate at more of a downward angle. Vertical approach angle looks at both movement and where the pitcher releases the ball, making it a great metric for measuring how much carry or drop a pitch appears to have to a hitter. Vertically, Heuer's stuff looks strikingly similar to Yoho's. His secondaries have actually gotten more swings and misses, both this season (the table below) and for their careers. Craig Yoho Pitch Type MPH Vert Horz VAA Stuff+ Whiff% Sinker 94.4 6.3 16.2 -5.3 91 12.1% Changeup 79.1 -4.2 16.4 -7.6 92 35.0% Curveball 77.7 -9.1 -17.3 -9.5 174 - Codi Heuer Pitch Type MPH Vert Horz VAA Stuff+ Whiff% Four-Seamer 95.4 14.2 10.4 -5.2 94 10.5% Changeup 87.1 5.2 16.0 -7.1 91 33.3% Slider 86.5 0.7 -4.3 -7.9 107 54.5% Yoho, meanwhile, could be a better fit with the Guardians, who throw significantly fewer fastballs (57.9% as a team) than the Brewers (67.3%, once again the highest rate in baseball). Even if he pans out as a high-leverage arm in Cleveland, the Brewers would only lose so much future value in giving up on a talented one-inning reliever. It's fair to question whether they truly gave Yoho's skill set a fair opportunity and shipped him out too quickly for what they believe is the better short-term version of him. For now, though, the Brewers have probably made their bullpen slightly better today and their catching mix slightly better in the future. More moves are almost certainly coming as the trade deadline nears. View full article

Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images With baseball’s August 3 trade deadline days away, pitching remains the Brewers’ greatest need. They're a great team in an enviable position, but in order to maintain their lead in the NL Central and make a push for the top postseason seed, they need to gather some reinforcements. It would be surprising if Milwaukee did not acquire a mid-rotation starter, a reliever, or both. If the club adds a couple of arms, it will have to send a couple out. Joel Kuhnel currently lives on the roster bubble. The 31-year-old right-hander owns a career 5.58 ERA and 4.73 FIP in 117 appearances, most of them in low-leverage situations. As a Brewer, he’s pitched to a 6.52 ERA and 9.32 FIP. He’s out of minor-league options, so if there’s no room for him, they must remove him from the 40-man roster and expose him to waivers. Whether by design, coincidence, or a combination of both, Kuhnel’s ramp-up to return from the injured list is lining up with the trade deadline. The Brewers haven’t revealed his next steps after a live batting practice session in Appleton on Thursday, but as a one-inning reliever, he should only need one rehab appearance before he’s ready to return next week. Their trade deadline activity will probably determine whether there’s a spot for Kuhnel. Even with DL Hall on the mend, the Brewers could use another reliever capable of pitching multiple innings in close games to ease the strain on Aaron Ashby and Chad Patrick. A short-range lefty to take what was formerly Jared Koenig’s role would also help. Adding a starter could push someone currently in the rotation mix into long relief. Should those deals not come together, there are worse fallback options than adding Kuhnel back to the bullpen. Despite his grisly performance before his injury, there are reasons why he seemed to be Pat Murphy’s preferred choice when a ‘B’ reliever had to pitch in a pivotal situation. When the Brewers acquired him from the Athletics in June, it was actually the second time they brought him in; they also signed him to a minor-league deal during the 2024 season. Kuhnel’s sinker has helped him post a 50.4% ground-ball rate and hold right-handed hitters to a .614 OPS this season. His velocity has jumped a couple of ticks since coming over, making his stuff above average for the first time in his career. {C}%3C!%2D%2Dtd%20%7Bborder%3A%201px%20solid%20%23cccccc%3B%7Dbr%20%7Bmso-data-placement%3Asame-cell%3B%7D%2D%2D%3E--> Team Sinker MPH Sinker Stuff+ Cutter MPH Cutter Stuff+ Curveball MPH Curveball Stuff+ Total Stuff+ ATH 94.5 97 89.9 94 80.3 103 94 MIL 96.5 100 91.5 105 83.9 122 103 The problem has been controlling those gains. As a Brewer, he’s walked 12.2% of hitters and plunked two batters. That’s a flip from the kind of pitcher he has typically been. He posted an excellent 5.6% walk rate for the Athletics and has walked only 6.4% of opponents for his career. Leading up to his injury, Kuhnel was pitching frequently in key situations when the Brewers were short-handed in the bullpen, and that workload seemed to be taking its toll. That’s not a full excuse; taking the ball regularly is part of the job for a big-league reliever. Still, he could fare much better in the right role. The Brewers can do better than Kuhnel to round out their relief corps, and if they make additions before Monday evening, he’ll be among the first on the chopping block. There’s no harm in keeping him around as an insurance option, though. His stuff is good enough to be a serviceable middle reliever, if he's given the chance. View full article

Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images Early in the season, the left side of the infield looked like a short-term weakness for the Brewers. For now, Pat Murphy faces the good problem of finding playing time for three capable players between shortstop and third base. Barring an acquisition before next Monday’s trade deadline, Milwaukee will probably get less offense from shortstop and third base than most other positions. It’s still safest to assume none of Cooper Pratt, Joey Ortiz, or David Hamilton will be above-average hitters by season’s end. Pratt and Ortiz have been red-hot in July, though, and Hamilton’s elite range has helped him accrue 7 Defensive Runs Saved at third base despite shoddy fundamentals and a nagging elbow issue. Before the Brewers’ series against the Colorado Rockies last weekend, Murphy was asked how the club would handle playing time on the left side of the infield after Hamilton’s return from a brief stint on the injured list. “We get them all in there,” he said. “Pratt, Ortiz, Hamilton, they all play a lot. They’re all starters.” The Brewers like all three players, so it makes sense to balance their opportunities accordingly. However, since Hamilton and Ortiz are both great defenders and below-average hitters, it also makes sense to ride the hot hand for now at third base. That’s how Murphy seems inclined to play things. On Friday, Ortiz started at shortstop over Pratt to get him and Hamilton in the same lineup. On Monday night, he started at third base against right-handed starter Tyler Mahle. “If he keeps playing well, he’ll keep playing,” Murphy said on Friday. “There’s days that it doesn’t match up as [well], but he’s been great for us, and we’re not going to do anything to hurt his confidence.” “Confidence” has long been Murphy’s buzzword surrounding Ortiz’s play, but lately, it’s been repeated in a positive context. After he lost his shortstop job to Pratt, Murphy met with Ortiz and reminded him that the Brewers still valued his abilities. He cited longtime Marlins and Dodgers utility man Miguel Rojas as a shortstop who became the best version of himself after a long stretch as a spare piece. Within a few days, Ortiz responded. Since June 29, he’s hitting .316/.358/.592 (157 wRC+). In just 191 innings at third base, he has already racked up 4 DRS. “My view is that I’m on the team for a reason,” Ortiz said after falling a home run shy of hitting for the cycle last Wednesday. “Wherever they need to put me, I’m gladly ready to play anywhere they need me.” “He’s just in a good, free space,” Murphy said. “He sees the ball a little more confident with two strikes. A little more confident, period. Just swinging the bat with conviction.” Ortiz has made some subtle tweaks to his setup and stride in the box, but conviction has made the greatest difference. He’s swinging at more strikes, and he’s swinging harder. Split xwOBA Z-Swing% Bat Speed (MPH) Fast Swing% Hard Hit% Through June 28 .285 55.6% 72.3 21.6% 32.4% Since June 29 .341 60.8% 74.3 49.2% 41.3% Ortiz’s bat speed is up by 2 MPH, and his rate of “fast swings” (defined by Statcast as swings with a bat speed of at least 75 MPH) has more than doubled. That's allowing him to make more hard contact. Players can train bat speed with the goal of naturally swinging faster more often, but it's an offseason project. The in-season jump Ortiz has experienced generally does not come from training. That bat speed was already in there; he’s just unleashing it more often. During his struggles, Ortiz looked like he was playing defense on offense. He wouldn’t swing the bat until he had to with two strikes, and he wasn’t using his best, most powerful swing. Now, he’s seeing the ball well and letting it rip. “He’s way more confident, and when you’re more confident, you can get your 'A' swing off,” Murphy said. Publicly, Ortiz said that his confidence hasn’t fluctuated throughout his time in Milwaukee. That can't be fully quantified. However, the authority with which he’s swinging has typically been a solid indirect measurement of how he’s feeling at the plate. Ortiz was similarly great in May 2024, slashing .290/.366/.581 (159 wRC+). That stretch featured strikingly similar swing metrics: an average bat speed of 74.9 mph, a 49.5% fast swing rate, and a 57.4% zone swing rate. Like that month of May, Ortiz is probably amid his hottest run of the season and won’t keep hitting at this level. He’s been a bit lucky during this stretch to make up for some poor luck earlier in the year. His swing decisions have been better lately, but they still haven’t been great. But there’s been a real shift in his conviction behind his improved results. The Brewers should take advantage of it while Ortiz stays hot. “I’m just really happy for the person,” Murphy said. View full article

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Craig Yoho ascended so quickly to the big leagues as a reliever that it's easy to forget he's only in his fourth season as a pitcher. A position player for most of his injury-riddled college career, the 26-year-old didn't move to the mound until 2023 at Indiana and was drafted by the Brewers that summer. He's now trying to find his footing in the majors in just his third full professional season. "This is, what, my third-and-a-half year pitching, something like that?" Yoho said at his locker in the Milwaukee clubhouse over the weekend. "So there's still a lot of stuff I'm learning about myself and stuff in the game of baseball that I haven't experienced yet. It's been, in a way, just a learning experience through it all." Yoho's elite movement, particularly the screwball-like shape of his changeup, helped him tear through college and minor-league hitters with ease. In the majors, he's encountered more first-time challenges. Some of the lessons have been mechanical, but most have related to the mental game and his daily work with the Brewers' big-league pitching coaches. "Just going in each and every day, understanding the work I need to put in to be ready to go that night, and just having the right mindset of going into the game," Yoho said. He's also learning the best way to use his arsenal. The pitches Yoho originally threw after converting to pitching were effective until he reached the majors, so he never needed to think much about which pitches he should throw to perform at the game's highest level. That changed after Yoho struggled to a 7.27 ERA, 6.48 FIP, and 6.61 SIERA in 8 ⅔ innings in his debut season last year. Late in the year, he experimented with a shorter slider to replace his curveball, but he ditched it when it started to blend with his cutter. He made a grip change this year to give his changeup even more depth, increasing its induced vertical break from -3 inches to -4.4 inches. During his most recent stint in Triple-A Nashville, Yoho made his most substantial yet simplistic change: he added a sinker and has since used it as his primary fastball instead of his four-seamer. "I decided to start pitching my last year of college, and [the four-seam was] the grip I chose," Yoho said. "It wasn't necessarily like a rhyme or reason to it. So, for the most part, my arsenal hadn't changed since the day I picked up a baseball." The four-seamer moved inconsistently because it wasn't the best fastball grip for Yoho. He's an extreme pronator, which means his palm turns outward, away from his body and over the top of the baseball as he releases it. That allows him to create the sideways spin that makes his changeup drop and fade, but it also produces a four-seamer with lots of arm-side run and very little carry, instead of a normal four-seamer that looks like it's rising due to more vertical backspin. In other words, Yoho's four-seamer is a worse version of a sinker with less sink. Why not add a real sinker instead? "It's always crossed my mind because his four-seam is kind of like a two-seam anyway, so might as well just get some depth to it," Brewers pitching coordinator Jim Henderson said. "It's something I've thought about pretty much every offseason, but hadn't actually done anything with," Yoho said. "I always kind of wondered if it would actually help my arsenal or not." At the beginning of July, he finally added the sinker. Yoho is using a standard two-seam grip with his fingers riding along the parallel laces of the ball, with the friction of those seams allowing him to rip the ball off his fingertips more comfortably than he can with a four-seam grip. "The hand coming off the ball feels great," he said. Unsurprisingly, the sinker has nearly the same amount of run as Yoho's four-seamer, but it has more depth. It has averaged 6.7 inches of induced vertical break, while the four-seamer has averaged 11.4 inches (excluding his outings at Coors Field, where the ball moves less due to the high altitude). Yoho has still mixed in some four-seamers to show hitters slightly different versions of two similar fastballs. In addition to generating more sink to induce more ground balls, Yoho and the Brewers are hoping that more consistent movement will help him throw more fastballs for strikes. "I got to start my line a little bit more on my glove side, just so that way when the ball runs, it comes back [into the strike zone]," Yoho said. "With the four-seam, I felt like sometimes it would come back a lot, sometimes it wouldn't as much, and so it was a little bit working against what I was trying to do. So the two-seam has helped kind of clean some of that up." "I like it because I think it's a training tool for his mechanics," Henderson said. "When you throw sinkers back-door [to righties], you can't come out of your delivery." The improved control has yet to materialize, as Yoho has thrown fewer sinkers in the strike zone (47.7%) than four-seamers (52.6%). That's what Henderson and lead pitching coach Chris Hook are monitoring most. Their main message to Yoho has been that he must force hitters to honor his fastball in the zone to get chases and early swings against his changeup. "If he commands the fastball, if they have to respect the fastball, then the changeup, no matter what [the velocity] is, is going to have them out in front," Henderson said. One of the reservations the Brewers have with Yoho's changeup is its low velocity, which can give hitters time to recognize the pitch and take it for a ball or foul it off, even if they were initially fooled by it. During the second half of July, his changeup has gone from sitting around 77 mph to more than 80 mph. That velocity bump wasn't by design, but it's a welcome improvement. "Movement's great, but when it's big and it's early, big-league hitters are good enough to spoil it or take pitches that aren't tracking [in the zone]," Henderson said. "So for him to be able to sell it a little bit more with some velo is good if he can maintain movement, and then there's still the Bugs Bunny one that can mess different hitters up." Yoho has done a solid job of missing barrels this year, posting a 29.1% whiff rate and 32.6% hard-hit rate. However, his current success is not sustainable. He's allowed three home runs and walked 10.8% of batters faced while benefitting from a .116 batting average on balls in play. For those reasons, his 4.84 FIP and 3.90 SIERA are both higher than his 3.32 ERA. As a result, the Brewers have used him mostly in a low-leverage role. Yoho still profiles as a potential trade candidate with a murky future in Milwaukee, but he's trying to adapt and do what he can to become a reliable member of the bullpen. "It hasn't really been a conversation about roles," Yoho said. "Honestly, from pitch one, I'm ready to go, to the last pitch of the game." View full article

Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Pat Murphy was eager to discuss Joey Ortiz's fantastic game after Wednesday's Brewers win over the New York Mets, but he was just as excited to talk about another hitter's multi-hit performance after prolonged struggles. "How about Yelich today?" Murphy asked after praising Ortiz. "Nine-pitch at-bat to lead off the game, which is underrated, RBI, an RBI triple—good at-bats against really good pitching." Yelich drove in Ortiz twice: first with a single in the second inning, then with that triple in the sixth. He has four extra-base hits on the current homestand, hitting .250/.375/.500 (a 140 wRC+). "I'm pumped for 'Yeli,'" Murphy said, deliberately shouting him out a second time in his five-minute press conference. After a rough first half, Yelich's production and role will be a major storyline down the stretch. If the season ended today, his 99 wRC+ would be the lowest of his career, and the first time he's been a statistically below-average hitter. Lackluster results in a sample of around 300 plate appearances aren't new for Yelich. His overall solid production has experienced more ebbs and flows in recent years. Just last year, Yelich got off to a slow start before doing his best work in the second half. When things went poorly in the past, Yelich was still hitting the ball hard and usually getting a bit unlucky. That hasn't been the case this year. His .299 xwOBA is lower than his .316 wOBA and is a career low. His hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are also personal worsts. Yelich has never really been a contact hitter, but his whiff rate has jumped to 30.5%, his worst mark outside of the shortened 2020 season. In the rolling chart below of Yelich's xwOBA over 200 plate appearances, that blip in 2026 below the red average line jumps out. It's still just a blip, but it's a first-time blip. In other words, Yelich has never had a stretch this prolonged in which his quality of contact (not just his results) has been this poor. Yelich is moving more rigidly. His average sprint speed is down from 28.2 feet per second last season to 27.3. He hasn't looked flexible enough to reach low pitches with his swing path, making it even harder for him to make contact with back-foot breaking balls (the league's whiff rate on those pitches is 40.2%; Yelich's is 63.6%). Being stiffer has also limited Yelich's skill set and made him less valuable in a few smaller ways. In another pair of unwelcome firsts, he now has below-average speed and has taken fewer extra bases on balls in play than the average runner, according to Statcast. Yelich's infield hit rate has cratered from 7% of ground balls in each of his previous two seasons to a career-worst 4% in 2026. Earlier this month in Pittsburgh, he laid down a near-perfect bunt for an attempted hit. It took him long enough to get out of the box and run to first that third baseman Nick Gonzales, positioned on the dirt near the traditional shortstop position, had enough time to charge the ball as it rolled down the third-base line and throw out Yelich by half a step. YkJMeExfWGw0TUFRPT1fQndBRUJWVldVRllBREFjQ1ZRQUhWdzlTQUZsVVUxa0FBZ2RUQkZZTVVnQUdWUVpT.mp4 These could all be symptoms of an underlying injury. Yelich missed time in April and May with an adductor strain and a recurrence of back issues. But with Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Jake Bauers, and (until his recent shoulder injury) Sal Frelick all playing well, there's been no need for him to play through pain. When his back has flared up in the past, the Brewers have usually shut him down pretty quickly. The likelier and more sobering answer is that at 34 years old, Yelich is physically declining and cannot move like he used to. If that's the case, he and the Brewers should not count on a return to form, because that form is gone. Instead, he must make physical adjustments to perform without his past mobility. As a 14-year veteran in tune with his body, Yelich is equipped to make that transition, but it's still challenging to do in-season. The Brewers are already quietly platooning Yelich; he's started just two of their last eight games against a left-handed starter. But it's too early to relegate him to a part-time player. Not only has he earned a long leash, but Frelick will be sidelined for an undetermined stretch, and Andrew Vaughn's 98 wRC+ against right-handers isn't much better than Yelich's. If Frelick returns and Yelich doesn't improve, it will be easy to say that the Brewers should reduce the latter's role, but it's not that simple. Yelich is their highest-paid player, their longest-tenured hitter, and a respected clubhouse figure who leads more with his conduct on the field than with his words. To demote him in the lineup—or, even worse, to the bench—is an open acknowledgment that something is wrong, and that it's not immediately fixable. The implications could bleed off the field. To avoid that dilemma, Yelich must start producing. That's why any signs of life, like those glimpses since the All-Star break, are encouraging. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images When the Brewers reconfigured their pitching plans to give Jacob Misiorowski a 12-day layoff between starts over the All-Star break, it brought to the forefront what was already going to be a significant story in the second half: how would the team manage his innings down the stretch? "It's a big discussion. It's a big topic," Pat Murphy said before Misiorowski took the mound against the New York Mets on Monday night. "It's all sorts of concern, planning, discussion, sidebar discussion. It's mechanics, biomechanics, everything about it. Strength testing, all that. Thus, the reason for the layoff. Now, how do we ramp it back up?" Misiorowski entered the break having thrown 111 innings. Last year, he set a career high with 129 ⅓ regular-season frames between Triple-A and the big leagues, plus 12 more innings in the postseason. After the Brewers frequently let him work deep into games during the first half, he's on pace to exceed last season's workload by a huge margin. The conventional rule of thumb for young pitchers—or, at least, the oft-cited approach—is increasing innings totals by 20-to-30% each season. Under that approach, Misiorowski could make up to 12 more starts while averaging five innings per outing for the rest of the regular season. In reality, it's not that straightforward. "I think it's very individual, very individually based, and I think that everybody's kind of keeping things in mind," Murphy said. "Has he had an injury history? Did he go through some setbacks? All that type of thing." That 20-to-30% rule probably won't apply to Misiorowski. Many of those deeper outings featured few high-stress pitches. More importantly, after he put on good weight in his lower half last winter, the Brewers believe he's physically equipped for a significant increase in his workload. "Offseason last year, we focused on legs and doing all that stuff to get myself ready for this track of the year," Misiorowski said. "I feel good where I'm at and ready to go." "It factors, yeah," Murphy said. "I always say this: when you're training to run a marathon, you don't ever go out and run the 26, you know what I mean? You never do. … So I don't think you have to set a number [based on] only what he did in the past. I think you can plan for more than that." Ironically, Misiorowski didn't have his legs underneath him a few hours later. With his body out of sync, he threw just 47% of his four-seam fastballs in the strike zone, prompting an in-game adjustment to lean more on his cutter. "He didn't throw a commanded heater past the second inning," Murphy said. "He was kind of coming off his legs and kind of getting stuck, and then trying to get out of it, and the ball was sailing." Entering Monday, Misiorowski had thrown his four-seamer 63% of the time and his cutter 14% of the time. In his outing against the Mets, those usage rates shifted to 55% and 29%, respectively. He threw as many cutters as four-seamers the second time through the order. "Going cutter kind of forces me to be shorter," Misiorowski said postgame. "I wasn't really feeling the legs, so kind of overcorrected [with] cutters. It worked out." Seeing that his body wasn't moving efficiently, the Brewers ended Misiorowski's outing at four innings at 65 pitches. "We would have probably let him go further if his delivery and his legs felt great," Murphy said. "I think he was a little bit out of it. The long layoff kind of affected his delivery and everything else. I think it was important to notice that and get him out of there then." The outing was a preview of how the Brewers plan to handle Misiorowski moving forward, even on nights when he's locked in. They may delay a few outings for extra rest days as the schedule allows, but the nearly two-week layoff was a one-time deal as a midseason break. Instead, they'll shorten some starts by an inning or two. It's less disruptive to Misiorowski's routine and the team's bullpen usage than outright skipping his turn in the rotation. "I think we lean more towards that, to keep the consistency," Murphy said, while also acknowledging that finding an extra start during a given turn in the rotation is harder than patching in a few extra innings from multi-inning relievers. "When you have a natural break like we just did—we kept him out of the Pittsburgh game three, the big break, kept him out of the first series—I think we take that as kind of a reset. Now, I think we have to build him back up and be sure that we do it in a mindful way." The Brewers aren't perfectly equipped to toe the line with their young ace—as the trade deadline approaches, they need more depth in both the rotation and the bullpen—but their position in the standings affords them some flexibility. Misiorowski's dominance and volume are a big reason why Milwaukee boasts the best record in baseball and leads the NL Central by 7 games. They won't treat him with kid gloves, but they have some wiggle room to be cautious when it makes sense. View full article