Jack Stern

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Since the Brewers acquired him from the Rockies at the trade deadline, Antonio Senzatela's tenure with his new team has gone poorly. In 18 appearances, many of them in high-leverage situations, the right-hander has pitched to a 6.48 ERA, 5.55 xERA, and 4.79 SIERA with a poor 2.7% strikeout-minus-walk percentage. From Daniel Norris to Andrew Chafin to Shelby Miller, Milwaukee's recent deadline relief acquisitions have an infamous track record. Even relievers with excellent stuff and strong peripherals at the time of a trade have pitched far worse after joining the Brewers. At this point, Senzatela's regular-season performance will not break that trend, but not for a lack of effort. "I think we're still cracking the shell a little bit," pitching coordinator Jim Henderson said a couple of weeks ago. "We've made some adjustments." Matt Trueblood recently broke down those adjustments, which have been a typical Brewersification. With the Rockies, Senzatela threw his four-seamer 40% of the time as his leading pitch, but the Brewers immediately converted him to their preferred sinker and cutter sequencing to both sides of the plate. They also moved him to the first-base side of the rubber, which makes that sinker easier to command and helps it enter the zone at a more deceptive angle. The pitch mix change made sense, as the sinker is Senzatela's slightly better fastball, particularly away from Coors Field. He naturally cuts the ball at release and doesn't generate much spin, which usually limits the movement of a four-seamer but can create more seam-shifted sink on a two-seamer. Even after accounting for the Colorado altitude and his arm slot, Senzatela's four-seamer has less carry than average, while his sinker has more sink. "We believe in good process of a pitch, and we believe that if he does that and keeps the ball in the ballpark with our defense, we're going to have success with it," Henderson said. "So we're kind of leaning into [the sinker and cutter] a bit more." The move to the first-base side wasn't just about improving the overall angle of Senzatela's sinker. Henderson said it was also an attempt at making him more platoon-neutral. From the first-base side, the Brewers believed Senzatela could better execute front-door sinkers to lefties. They also felt the more extreme angle would freeze more lefties on back-door cutters that come back to the outside corner. "We're just looking for more freezes, just to track a little bit better and get in there, and, if you have the eyes of a hitter, not being able to track him the whole way so much," Henderson said. Senzatela's stuff would always benefit from leaving Coors Field, but the Brewers have helped it level up further. They've tightened his delivery and worked on landing more firmly with his front foot, allowing his hand to work on top of the ball. Those tweaks have contributed to a velocity bump, and they've given his sinker more depth (lower induced vertical break) and more arm-side run. In recent outings, he's gotten that sinker as low as 3 inches of IVB and as high as 18 inches of horizontal break. Team Sinker MPH Sinker IVB Sinker HB Sinker Stuff+ COL 96.0 7.1 12.9 99 MIL 97.2 6.4 14.6 105 "We're just trying to keep him a little bit tighter with delivery," Henderson said. "If you get through the ground and you have a tight rotation and you get your hand in the right spot, hopefully you can manipulate the ball any way you want. So just trying to get him through his heel, a little bit better posture, so that his hand can work out here. If he gets on his toe, then he starts losing his hand, and that's where he sees the runners instead of the sinkers." It's all sound in theory. In practice, it isn't working. Senzatela's fastballs are his bread and butter, but as he's mixed those heaters differently and thrown more fastballs overall, their effectiveness has flipped. Team Fastball% FB xSLG FB Run Value FB Run Value/100p COL 80.4% .332 5 0.798 MIL 94.1% .422 -3 -0.951 Regressed command is a big part of the problem. Senzatela's Location+ (a metric that measures whether pitches were thrown to locations that produce the best results) has dropped from 108 as a Rockie to 94 as a Brewer. His in-zone rate has decreased from 50.1% to 44.9%, and his walk rate has jumped from 7.8% to 10.8%. Throwing more fastballs hasn't helped. Since the start of August, Senzatela's 94.1% fastball usage effectively leads all pitchers to throw at least 250 total pitches (only Jose Alvardo is higher, but what's labeled his cutter has the velocity and movement of a slider). Only fellow Brewer Chad Patrick and Jonathan Pintaro are in the same realm. The difference is that Patrick and Pintaro are mixing in plenty of four-seamers, so their high fastball usage consists of three different iterations. Senzatela is throwing mostly sinkers and cutters and only flashing the occasional four-seamer with two strikes. Patrick and Pintaro change eye levels with their fastballs. Their four-seamers have more carry and create a different look at the top of the zone. Because his sinker and cutter have identical depth, Senzatela is currently showing the same vertical movement with roughly 85% of his pitches. Even though Senzatela's sinker and cutter move in opposite directions horizontally, going all-in on that pairing has allowed hitters to sit on a tight velocity and vertical movement range. They know they're getting something hard, and they know it will have some sink. Most of hitting is timing, and disrupting that timing is how a pitcher avoids barrels. Senzatela was doing that with the Rockies. According to Statcast bat tracking, hitters were on time with only 64% of swings against his three fastballs, well below the league average of 74% against fastballs. They were late on 34% of fastball swings, one of the highest rates in baseball. As a Brewer, hitters have been on time with 74% of swings against Senzatela's fastballs – exactly the league average. They've made him the most extreme fastball pitcher in baseball, and it's allowed opponents to time him up. Senzatela's whiff rate as a Brewer is still 22.1%, a decrease of only two percentage points since the trade, which speaks to how dominant the sinker-cutter pairing can be. The sinker has also boosted his ground ball rate. However, his strikeout rate has cratered to 13.5% with Milwaukee. "I think that's the only thing that's missing right now, is just to try to find a little more whiff," Henderson said. Those strikeouts are hard to find while throwing 94% fastballs. "He's went to more sinker-cutter, sinker-cutter-curveball, and I think that when you're a sinkerball guy and you're throwing hard and people know you're coming at them, you're going to give up contact," Pat Murphy said on Sunday afternoon, after Senzatela allowed a go-ahead three-run home run in another fastball-only outing. Let's be clear: Senzatela should throw lots of fastballs. Public stuff models see his curveball as a fine pitch, but it has clear limitations. It's a low-spin breaking ball, and he struggles to throw it for strikes. Senzatela noticeably raises his arm slot (the blue line in the graphic below) so he can get on top and in front of the ball. The solution is not to throw this many fastballs, though. Even if Senzatela's curveball isn't a great pitch, it still shows the hitter a necessary change of speed. The Brewers have been working on his breaking pitches during his daily flatground work, but Henderson said the extreme fastball usage isn't just an attempt to get by until the breaking stuff improves to their liking. "I think we're just leaning into his strength," Henderson said. "I don't think it's necessarily just trying to get away [without a good breaking ball]. But, you know, we have our systems." At this extreme, Senzatela's strength has become a weakness. His most recent outings have hinted that tempering his fastball usage could improve his effectiveness. After throwing 122 straight fastballs starting on August 25, Senzatela threw three curveballs in a scoreless inning against the Cubs last week. After Alex Bregman saw a curveball in the dirt, he fouled off a sinker on a late swing, then flew out to left field on a cutter. After Michael Busch saw two straight curveballs for balls, he whiffed and grounded out on two straight sinkers, both late swings. On Saturday against the Reds, Senzetela threw four curveballs in another scoreless inning with a strikeout. One was a hard Ke'Bryan Hayes lineout to left. Dane Myers then saw three straight curveballs, swinging well in front of the third one and popping out to right. On Sunday, all eight of Senzatela's pitches were fastballs. Sal Stewart punched a cutter back up the middle for a single, then Eugenio Suarez drove a sinker to right-center for that go-ahead homer. Without a threat of the breaking ball, his electric stuff doesn't flourish. "We want him to mix in some of the slower stuff, for sure, but I can't tell you the exact difference in the contact quality," Pat Murphy said. The Brewers will need Senzatela to record big outs in October, particularly if they deploy bullpen games behind Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson. He's capable of that, but he needs the right pitch mix for things to fall into place. Even bringing his fastball usage down to 85% could be the difference between a dominant Senzatela and one who is easy for great hitters to time up in key situations. "I think he's got a definite role for our team," Murphy said. View full article

Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-Imagn Images In a 20-0 blowout win over the Reds that made the Brewers the first National League team to secure a playoff berth this season, a few inconsequential add-on runs stood out the most to Pat Murphy. After a William Contreras RBI single gave the Brewers a 13-0 lead in the fifth inning, Christian Yelich and Jake Bauers struck out. It had already been a productive night and a productive inning, and it seemed the scoring might finally be subsiding. Murphy had seen this movie before. On Wednesday against the Cubs, after his offense scored seven runs in the first three innings, it managed just two baserunners the rest of the way, one of whom reached on an error. Failing to add on nearly proved costly in the ninth, as the tying run came to the plate for Chicago after Brandon Sproat’s meltdown. Afterward, Murphy praised those early at-bats, but criticized his hitters for easing off the gas pedal with poor process. It wasn’t a problem this time. With two outs and a runner on first, Luis Lara roped a first-pitch single into right field. Cooper Pratt saw four of five pitches from Luis Mey well outside the zone and remained selective to draw a walk. With the bases suddenly loaded, Garrett Mitchell blasted a 3-1 pitch for the Brewers’ first grand slam of the season. Instead of a four-run inning, it was an eight-run frame. “It's insignificant to a lot. We're already up in the game a bunch,” Murphy said. “Strikeout, strikeout, and then we went base hit, walk, homer, base hit.” Those continued quality at-bats are what Murphy wants to see in the postseason. For the eighth time in nine seasons and for the fourth year in a row, the Brewers will play meaningful October baseball. “I think you have to appreciate it,” Murphy said. “I’m grateful that I’m part of a group, that I have the type of personnel and the type of people that live up to these expectations, live up to the standards, and are very serious about it.” Because the postseason has become the standard in Milwaukee, the celebration has become more subdued. The Brewers no longer pop champagne bottles until they clinch the division, which could also happen this weekend. “The Chicago White Sox, when they clinch a playoff berth this year, they're going to go crazy, and they should, because they did an incredible job coming from where they came from,” Murphy said. “We've been kind of steady for a while, and we want to just keep going. We want to see how far we can go and how complete this can be.” Instead, Murphy gave a private postgame toast in which he focused on members of the club’s support staff. “Him calling out the guys behind the scenes,” Brice Turang said. “Obviously, everyone sees the players, and they don’t always see the guys behind the scenes. The trainers, the weight coaches, the chefs, stuff like that.” “It matters that we’re a team, but everybody contributes, and everybody gets recognized for this, because it doesn’t just happen because you have good players,” Murphy said. After that, it was a normal postgame clubhouse. Players quietly filed out of the room as they do after a normal regular season win. That’s because the Brewers have not accomplished their final goal of winning a World Series. “We’ve still got a lot more to go,” Garrett Mitchell said. “This is just the beginning.” During this otherwise successful run, the Brewers have not gone very far in October. Their win over the Cubs in last year’s NLDS was their first postseason series win since 2018. The run ended unceremoniously with a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers in the NLCS. Murphy wants this group, which includes many returners from that team, to let that failure motivate them to bring their best deeper into the fall. The standard has been raised. “This isn't enough for this group in there. They want more,” Murphy said. “They remember last year. They want more.” That’s why he circled the second half of an eight-run fifth inning on his scorecard. The Brewers already did something impressive. They could have stopped at a 13-0 lead, especially after a few unsuccessful at-bats, but they didn’t. That’s what they’ll have to do in the postseason to get further than last year against elite pitching, when the runs are not coming easily. In last year's NLCS, they ran out of steam and stopped punching. “You just got to stay in the fight, stay in the process, stay in the now, and good things can happen,” Murphy said. “When you get that realization as a team, then you realize, ‘Hey, we can score at any time.’ Down three, that's not the end of the world.” “We all know what the end goal is, and that's what we're chasing,” Turang said. “So this is a small little step, and we just enjoy it tonight, and then tomorrow we go out and try to win a game.” View full article

Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images Brandon Sproat’s audition for a postseason bullpen role did not go well. In fact, it went so poorly that it might be a one-and-done opportunity. In Sproat's return to the big leagues after last month’s demotion to Triple-A, Pat Murphy tasked the former starter with recording the final six outs against the Cubs with a seven-run lead on Wednesday night. He only recorded four of those outs, issuing four walks and hitting a batter. Before long, Abner Uribe was facing pinch-hitter BJ Murray as the tying run, with the dangerous Pete Crow-Armstrong on deck. Uribe struck out Murray to extinguish the fire and close out a three-game sweep. Despite a trio of statement wins against the Brewers’ top division rival, however, Murphy’s postgame presser carried a mixed tone. His offense had backed off the gas pedal after scoring six early runs against Kevin Gausman, and Sproat’s poor performance nearly made it costly. “It’s unacceptable,” Murphy said. “You’ve got to throw the ball over the plate to be a major-league pitcher.” That was already a recurring issue for Sproat, who walked 11.6% of batters faced before his demotion. It was even worse in Nashville, where he posted a 12.8% walk rate and threw just 42% of his pitches in the strike zone. Because of his electric stuff, Sproat struck out 34.6% of opponents and pitched to a 3.18 xERA against less disciplined hitters, but there was no improvement from a process standpoint. It wasn’t for a lack of effort. The development staff in Nashville tried simplifying things for Sproat to get him back into the zone, leaning more on his straight four-seamer and relying less on the new cutter that had the worst run value of any pitch in his arsenal this year. In a two-inning relief appearance before his call-up, 67% of Sproat’s pitches were four-seamers or curveballs. That’s a simple, vertical sequence that he can tunnel by aiming both pitches right down the middle. That approach often turns converted starters into successful relievers. Getting less cute with pitch usage and command can free a pitcher mentally and physically. By throwing their two or three best pitches at max effort anywhere in the strike zone, things can click into place pretty easily. The Brewers have recently seen it work for Chad Patrick and Shane Drohan. It doesn’t address Sproat’s biggest issue: letting things get out of hand quickly after a bad sequence or plate appearance. He showed brief flashes of dominance in nearly every start, but he was prone to big innings, and when something disrupted his rhythm on the mound, he couldn’t recalibrate. That’s what did him in on Wednesday. Sproat walked Crow-Armstrong on eight pitches to open the inning. The adage is that leadoff walks will haunt defenses, but the real turning point was when Sproat attempted to pick off Crow-Armstrong in a situation where every team would give him second base on defensive indifference. Andrew Vaughn was not holding the runner, so Sproat’s throw sailed into foul territory. The floodgates opened from there: a wild pitch as part of a five-pitch walk, a third walk to load the bases, an Alex Bregman strikeout, then a run-scoring walk. “I knew he was nervous,” Murphy said. “No matter what, you can’t let it snowball like that.” “It’s a game of highs and lows,” William Contreras said. “I don’t know if he’s out there trying to do more than what he is. We all know who he is in this room. We’ve seen plenty of him this season. He’s helped us this season. But it’s a hard game whenever you’re trying to do more than maybe what you’re capable of.” Until that part of Sproat’s game is resolved, he’ll keep running into similar issues in any role. For now, he’ll almost certainly head back to Nashville in exchange for a fresh arm. Given his upside, it’s still hard to rule him out for a postseason roster spot, but that won’t happen until Sproat proves he can stay poised and course-correct during an outing. Time is running out for that to happen in 2026. View full article

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect Last week at Wrigley Field, Pat Murphy made a rare admission to the media: in a close game, he made a decision that didn't maximize the Brewers' chances of winning. After hitting Andrew Vaughn for David Hamilton last Sunday against the Rangers, Murphy kept him in the game as the third baseman. That was a hit to the infield defense with Milwaukee trailing by three runs, but Murphy was thinking ahead to their first September series against the Cubs. "I wanted to get him two at-bats, because I knew coming into the series he was going to get some at-bats," Murphy said. "Do I do that if I'm ruthless about winning every single game? Probably not. But I have to think of those things." Murphy has to think ahead as a manager, but it's one of his least favorite parts of the job to discuss. Having cut his teeth as a coach in the uncertain and chaotic environment of college baseball, he believes you can't control much about the future. The best thing you can do is try your best to win the game in front of you. One of Murphy's most repeated mantras is "Win Tonight." That means Murphy puts his chips on the table when he sniffs a potential win. He wants his best players on the field whenever possible. He doesn't push players to the point of immediate injury risk, but Murphy will wade into the gray area on workloads to win tonight. The standings aren't changing his view—at least not yet. Milwaukee entered their final regular-season series against the Cubs with a seven-game lead over Chicago in the NL Central. According to FanGraphs, they had a 98.6% chance of winning the division. Still, Murphy has insisted repeatedly over the last several weeks that the Brewers cannot start thinking ahead about October ("We're not in the postseason yet," he cautioned before the Wrigley series). In fairness, there is still something to play for; securing baseball's best record would guarantee home-field advantage through the postseason. On Monday, Murphy pitched Abner Uribe in a back-to-back outing while trailing by one run in the eighth inning, saying afterward that he considered it a high-leverage situation. On Tuesday, he kept Uribe off-limits and gave Jake Bauers a second straight maintenance day as he deals with shin splints. However, he also pitched Aaron Ashby for the sixth time in eight days and pinch-hit for Bauers in the fifth inning, so he played the second half of the game at first base. As they often have, Murphy's more aggressive decisions paid off, at least in the short term. The Brewers notched comeback wins in both games, including Tuesday's particularly dramatic walk-off win. Even though neither meant much for the divisional standings – particularly after the Brewers secured the season series and postseason tiebreaker over the Cubs on Monday – both had a playoff-like atmosphere. "Playing here and being close to Chicago and playing in Wrigley, it's always pretty crazy," DL Hall said. "But I think we just look at it like any other game, and we just play our game, no matter who's across the field in the other dugout." For the Brewers, that means leaving everything on the field and refusing to quit. Redemption was the story of the night, as the key contributors behind the late-inning comeback were having unproductive nights, made mistakes earlier in the game, or both. "We made some junior mistakes before that, but hung in there and [were] resilient," Murphy said of the eventual walk-off victory. "That's just kind of what you'd love to be part of, trusting your team and believing they'll keep coming back." After Trevor Megill allowed two runs in the top of the ninth, the Brewers were down to their final strike. Christian Yelich battled back from an 0-2 count for a pinch-hit single, giving Jackson Chourio a crack at Cubs closer Jacob Webb. The Brewers may have taken a lead to the ninth had Chourio not cost them a run on the bases an hour earlier. Trying to score from second on William Contreras's two-out single in the fifth, Chourio awkwardly slid feet first into the plate, trying to swipe home plate with his left hand. He jammed his thumb and was tagged out on a tag he should have beaten, even if it was a great throw by Seiya Suzuki. "He's got a lane to slide in. You hope he's safe there," Murphy said. "Feet first at the plate, I just don't like it." He made up for it in the ninth. After fouling off a first-pitch changeup over the inner third of the plate, Chourio turned on the next one he saw and launched a game-tying home run to left. After his go-ahead single in the eighth the day before, it was the latest addition to his growing resume of coming through in the biggest moments. "You got to get 27 outs, right? There's not another person I probably want up in that situation." Garrett Mitchell said. "He just does less and demolishes baseballs." Mitchell was having a rough night at the plate himself, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, but he set up the walk-off with his defense in extra innings. When Alex Bregman led off the top of the tenth with a fly ball to center field, Mitchell positioned himself, stepped into the catch (with Chourio alerting him that the placed runner Suzuki was preparing to tag up), and fired to third. David Hamilton held the tag as Suzuki slid past the base to complete the double play. "It's baseball. You can have a really good day and a really crappy day," Mitchell said. "I think I've talked about this a lot. There's not a lot you can control on the offensive end when things aren't going well, but if there's one thing I take pride in, it's playing good defense, and you don't take your offense to defense." Luis Lara was also 0-for-4 when he stepped up with the bases loaded in the bottom of the tenth. In the sixth, he emotionally challenged a third strike that was fully in the zone, exhausting the Brewers' final ABS challenge. That proved consequential in the ninth, as what should have been a Michael Conforto strikeout became a one-out walk when ball four clipped the zone and William Contreras could not challenge. Lara also struck out with runners on second and third in the eighth to end a potential rally. Before Lara stepped into the box, Murphy approached him in the on-deck circle with a message of encouragement. "He asked me if I was ready, and he told me that he believed in me 100 percent," Lara said through translator Daniel de Mondesert. "I was just trying to get him to take the emotions out of it and just have kind of a clear head," Murphy said. "'It's not about you, it's about the ballclub right here. The ballclub needs you to stay level-headed.' I don't think that had any difference in the at-bat." On the first pitch, Lara drove a walk-off single down the left-field line. "I think the only thing that was repeating in my head over and over again was, 'Wow, wow, wow,'" Lara said. "It was just unbelievable." "He just cares," Murphy said. "When you come into the environment here, you care about the team. That's the deal." On one hand, resiliency should serve the Brewers well in October. Regular-season baseball already punches you in the mouth repeatedly, and it hits even harder in do-or-die playoff environments. The Cubs could again be Milwaukee's NLDS opponent, and in recent games, the Brewers have embodied the traits of a successful postseason team. They've bounced back from bad losses, pitched well against a formidable lineup, played great defense, and gotten enough big swings from hitters like Chourio to flip the scoreboard when it matters most. On the other hand, last year's NLCS sweep showed what happens when the tank runs dry too soon. The offense looked like a shell of itself after grinding out every plate appearance for six months and playing through injuries. With diminished command and velocity, respectively, Ashby and Uribe looked to be running on fumes. The Brewers didn't back off that September. With that context, it's fair to wonder whether Monday and Tuesday's high-effort wins would look different after a playoff exit. Are a few extra regular-season wins worth it if they send a club to an earlier October burnout? Every team has wear and tear by the postseason, but unlike most teams, the Brewers played so well that they earned the luxury of pacing themselves down the stretch. Is continuing to go full-throttle with the best playoff odds in baseball the best use of the next three weeks? That's the balance Murphy and the Brewers must strike, particularly after they clinch a postseason spot and the division in the coming days. They should still make a push for the top seed, but at that point, there are more important considerations than winning the game in front of you. The last two wins can be an October preview, but not the premature peak of Milwaukee's season. View full article

Image courtesy of David Banks-Imagn Images The Brewers’ young outfielders were right in the middle of their Labor Day comeback win over the Cubs, which inched Milwaukee closer to another NL Central title by securing the season series. Luis Lara scored their first run in the fifth inning. After Jackson Chourio delivered the go-ahead single as part of a three-run eighth, Lara added more flair in the ninth with a leaping catch at the wall, robbing Pedro Ramírez of extra bases against Trevor Megill. “In that situation, I’m just reacting,” Lara said through interpreter Daniel de Mondesert. “That’s the only thing going through my head, is reacting to the play and to the ball off the bat, and just finding any way I possibly can to make the play there.” It wasn’t lost on Pat Murphy that Lara made a pivotal play in the field minutes after a poor at-bat to end that eighth-inning rally. “That response type stuff is what it’s all about,” Murphy said. “Responding after things don’t go right, and as quickly as possible.” His closer appreciated the effort. “He goes balls to the wall,” Megill said. “That’s what we want from our outfielders and our defense, and that’s the standard. He goes out there and does that every single day on defense.” That’s a crude but accurate way to put it. In fewer than 50 big-league games, Lara has already assembled an impressive highlight reel. He entered Monday with 6 Defensive Runs Saved and 2 Outs Above Average in 339 outfield innings. Before that, Lara won a Gold Glove in 2025 in the minor leagues, where he developed a reputation for his daring patrol of the grass. “He makes that play at the wall look really, really easy,” said Christian Yelich, who formerly traversed right field at American Family Field. “And it’s not an easy play, especially in right field, because of how [the wall] slants in and goes back. It’s just a funky area over there, and he makes it look easy.” That wasn’t the case immediately after Lara’s promotion to the majors. After he played mostly center in the minor leagues, the Brewers have used him primarily in right field. While most modern big-league stadiums measure at least 325 feet between home plate and the foul poles in both outfield corners, many minor-league parks have smaller dimensions closer to 300 feet in the corners, with shorter warning tracks. Lara has maintained that he has always felt confident in his ability to play any outfield position, but he was clearly unfamiliar with that newfound space in right field. He seemed uncertain of how close he was to the wall, leading to some early hesitation on plays that should have been easier for him. The most notable moment came in his second big-league game in St. Louis. When Masyn Winn drove a deep but relatively routine fly ball to right, Lara kept checking on the wall. As soon as he hit the warning track, he believed he was running out of room, so he slowed down and leaped. Instead of hitting the padding as he expected, Lara fell forward into open space, flubbing the ball and turning what should have been an out into a double. MDRYV05fVjBZQUhRPT1fVTFjQUJsd0JVd0VBQVZZS0JBQUhCd0JmQUFNTldsWUFCRkFHQndjRUExSUdBVmRU.mp4 A couple of weeks later, Lara was tested with a bloop fly ball down the right-field line, with Brice Turang and Jake Bauers converging toward him as the play unfolded. It was Lara’s ball, but he hesitated to avoid a collision, and the ball dropped for a double. V0FXUVBfWGw0TUFRPT1fQkZjRkJsRlNBRlFBRHdRRkFBQUhCd0JUQUFNQ0JRY0FWd0ZXQXdZRkFRVUdVd3BS.mp4 Both misplays were understandable for a young outfielder acclimating to new and unfamiliar surroundings. Lara had played very little right field as a professional, but there was reason to believe that his instincts and ability would allow him to transition quickly. That’s precisely what happened. August brought more reckless catches, with Lara sacrificing his body to the wall without hesitation. His coming-out party was an extra-innings win against the Twins on August 9. With the game tied at 3-3 in the sixth inning, he robbed Brooks Lee of extra bases with a leap at the wall. NHlLZUJfWGw0TUFRPT1fQWdkVVVnVlNBbFlBWFZFRVZ3QUhCVklEQUZnTlYxUUFCUU1GQmdRRlVsRlVWQVlI.mp4 He made a far better play in the 10th, taking a perfect route on a Kody Clemens drive and slamming into the wall, preventing the go-ahead run on second base from scoring. NHlLZUJfWGw0TUFRPT1fVlZkUVhBQlhBMWNBV3dNQ1V3QUhWdzVXQUFNTldsWUFDMU1HVlFBQ0NWWUdVZ3BU.mp4 At that point, Lara had played just two big-league games in center field, and nearly all of his action came in right. Pat Murphy revealed that to be a deliberate decision after the game, saying he wanted to limit Lara to one position to ease his transition. “He’s very capable of [playing] center field, but I didn’t put him in center because I want him to just keep getting more and more comfortable in right field,” Murphy said. Lara has since gotten more action in center while Garrett Mitchell nursed a foot injury, and the highlight-reel plays have accumulated at both positions. Pair that defense with a passable 97 wRC+ and .337 on-base percentage, and the 21-year-old has already been an impact player in his rookie season. “In all areas on the field, I feel like I have confidence,” Lara said. “Defending, at the plate, running the bases—whatever it is, I have confidence in my ability, so [I'm] just really out there enjoying it.” View full article

Image courtesy of David Banks-Imagn Images Looking at the box score, one wouldn't think that anything was wrong with Kyle Harrison. Since returning from a month-long stint on the injured list with left forearm tightness, Harrison's results and peripherals largely matched his pre-injury dominance. Entering Monday night’s outing against the Cubs, he had pitched to a 1.83 ERA, 3.61 xERA, and 3.13 SIERA with a 31.7% strikeout rate since his return. While Harrison’s results were nearly identical to before, his stuff was not. Before his IL stint, his signature fastball averaged a career-best 95 mph. Since his return, it’s averaged 93.7 mph. He was also unintentionally dropping his arm slot for a couple of starts, which killed some of the fastball’s carry. The downturn in stuff made him more homer-prone – Harrison allowed 1.83 home runs per nine in his first four starts back, after a 1.08 rate before the injury – but for the most part, he was making do with what he had. Against mostly below-average lineups, the fastball was still getting whiffs at 92-to-94, and he corrected the arm slot problem after a rough outing in San Diego. Still, the velocity dip remained noteworthy. Monday night was the first time Harrison faced a postseason-caliber lineup with his diminished fastball, and they demolished him. The Cubs, who lead baseball in runs scored and wRC+, whiffed only twice on 32 swings against Harrison’s fastball and hit four of their five home runs against the heater. Each home run pitch was under 95 mph, and three were under 94. Harrison allowed a career-high nine earned runs in 3 ⅔ innings. Velocity wasn’t the only issue. Harrison and Pat Murphy said that he was tipping his pitches early in the outing by coming set with his hands in different positions for each pitch type. “When you know what’s coming, it’s a little bit easier to hit, I think,” Harrison said. “So it's on me [to address] during the week. I knew these guys are looking for any sign of edge that they can get, and they got a little bit of an edge on me, I think, in that first inning.” Harrison’s command was also poor, as three of those four fastball homers came on pitches over the middle of the plate. However, Harrison’s fastball has been effective right down the middle at higher velocities. This season, on fastballs thrown at least 94 mph where Statcast considers down the middle, Harrison has produced a +2 run value and held hitters to a .190 batting average with a 23.6% whiff rate. The Cubs hit fastballs in locations that have been effective for Harrison this year. Even after he tried to fix the tipping after the first inning, they still hit him hard. Above all else, the bottom line is that his current fastball is not the same pitch it was in the first half. That also includes the pitch’s movement. When Harrison generates less velocity, he also generates less backspin on his fastball. On Monday, it averaged one less inch of induced vertical break than his season average. “I don't think it's necessarily about the velo as much, it's about the shape,” Harrison said. “That's some of the frustrating stuff. I thought we were in a good spot last bullpen, was able to get back up to like 20 [induced vertical break], and then coming out today was more like 13.” “It's more about not only the [velocity] number, but if the ball's taking off the way it usually does at the top [of the zone], then that makes him really effective, because it looks like it's going to be here and then it takes off,” Murphy said. “When it's not doing that, it's more hittable. We saw a little bit of that in spring training. We've seen it a few times.” That backspin usually gives Harrison’s fastball above-average carry (which hitters often describe as “ride” or “late life”) from a low release height. When that carry is there, it hasn't become unusable around 93 mph. Instead, it goes from an elite pitch to an above-average one for his career. MPH Run Value Run Value/100p wOBA Whiff% 94+ 20 1.5 .257 29.0% 93-94 5 0.7 .313 23.7% 92-93 2 0.3 .331 28.4% <92 -11 -2.6 .469 17.2% In reality, Harrison’s fastball is not entirely dependent on velocity to be effective. The real issue is his limited arsenal, which becomes exposed when his fastball velocity dips. Pitchers with deep pitch mixes can get by with a merely solid fastball, but Harrison is effectively a two-pitch pitcher with one fastball and one breaking ball. To make that two-pitch combination work as a starter, at least one must be excellent, and Harrison’s non-fastballs are not. His slider has big, loopy break with below-average spin. That kind of pitch does not play well on its own, so its effectiveness hinges on separation from an elite fastball. Harrison throws a kick changeup with significant drop as a third pitch, but he’s used it just 9% of the time this year with poor command. He threw progressively more changeups on Monday as the Cubs barreled his fastball, but he located just 21% of them in the strike zone. Harrison’s 2024 season showed what happens when his fastball is solid instead of elite. His fastball averaged 92.6 mph that year, and it still limited hitters to a .328 wOBA with a 23% whiff rate. However, his breaking ball was hit harder, producing a .347 wOBA, compared to just .188 this year. Harrison was a below-average pitcher that season, pitching to a 4.56 ERA, 4.33 FIP, and 4.18 SIERA. That’s not a postseason starter, an alarming twist after Jacob Misiorowski and Harrison looked like a formidable 1-2 rotation punch mere weeks ago. For most of the year, it seemed those two could give the Brewers a chance against any team in a short playoff series. Now they must prepare for Harrison to be entirely out of the mix. Logan Henderson should start Game 2 instead, and Shane Drohan and Dustin May, each of whom has his own shortcomings, will also have to cover more important innings. Where the Brewers go from here remains to be seen. Harrison has maintained that his velocity will return. “I'm not giving up on the velo. I think it’ll still be there,” he said. “I'm feeling great physically, so just gotta keep going, keep grinding, put the head down.” If Harrison truly is healthy, then where did his plus fastball go, and how can he get it back? “His delivery might be a little bit jacked,” Murphy said. “I think it's in there, and I haven't lost trust, but I think we got to go back and look at the delivery and make sure his mechanics are solid.” Harrison and the Brewers have four weeks to get him right. How he looks during that time carries massive implications for their postseason pitching picture. View full article

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-Imagn Images On August 14 against the Dodgers, William Contreras went 0-for-4 to drop his OPS to .702, its lowest point of the season. It was Contreras's sixth straight game without a hit. Over his last 30, he had hit .153/.241/.243. His struggles had grown so severe that Pat Murphy moved him from the top half to the bottom half of the lineup. When Contreras stepped up to the plate that night in Los Angeles, this was how his stance looked. He held his hands over his head and his outstretched arms well away from his body. Contreras has always been a tinkerer in the box. He's long toyed with different versions of his stance throughout the season, even when he's going well. At times, it changes from day to day. This was one of several stances he deployed during his slump, and he had been using it since the Brewers' previous West Coast trip two weeks earlier. It wasn't helping him break out of his struggles. If anything, it was digging him further into his hole. The screenshot above was taken seconds before a swing-and-miss on a 96-mph Yoshinobu Yamamoto sinker low and inside. It's a well-executed pitch that's hard to barrel, but Contreras is a strong athlete with above-average bat speed. When he's going well, he can pull his hands in on a down-and-in pitch and get the bat head far enough in front to make loud contact. That was harder to do with his hands starting so far from his body. By the time he pulled them in, he was late on that sinker and slashed over the top of it. YkJMMTRfVjBZQUhRPT1fQVFsVkJ3WldWRlFBQ3dBQkF3QUhDQVFGQUZsUUFsVUFBZ2NNVmdjR0NBUUhVVkZY.mp4 "Now you got to start early to get to that," Pat Murphy said. "Now guys [are pitching] him in, and your hands are way out here, you got to start early to get to that pitch. Now you're cutting across balls, missing balls, and you can't get there. It's just really hard to get to that spot." The following night, Contreras returned to his old stance. His hands were still above his head, but he held his bat above his shoulder and closer to his body. In his first at-bat, he roped a 107-mph line drive to left for a single. His next time up, he hit his first home run since July 19. That was the start of a torrid stretch for the Milwaukee backstop, who has hit .408/.456/.612 (191 wRC+) in his last 12 games. He's back to hitting the ball hard, posting a 51.5% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of 91.9 mph in that span. By the time of the Brewers' series in New York last week, he was resting his bat on his shoulder, allowing him to pull that same low-and-in sinker for a 106-mph double. TzA0OW9fVjBZQUhRPT1fVkFKVlV3WU1Bd3NBWGxWVEF3QUhWUUZWQUZsVFZsQUFBVmNOQmxJTUFBZFJCd3RV.mp4 On Saturday night, Contreras launched another inside sinker for a towering home run that gave the Brewers an early lead. TzA0UjlfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1UxUURWMWNCVXdVQUNGSldVd0FIQ1E1U0FGaFhVRllBVkYxVUJsQURCZ3RVQXdZRA==.mp4 There are more tweaks going on here—Contreras has also started using a toe tap lately—but more than anything, his hands are allowing him to get to the ball directly and on time. "He's now got himself a little more tight [between his hands and his body], and he can stay a little linear with his hand path," Murphy said. "He doesn't need that space in there. I think it's helped him." Most of hitting is timing, so in some cases, less is often more. By becoming more compact with less pre-pitch movement, Contreras has simplified his setup. That's one of the tenets Murphy and the Brewers preach to their hitters: stop thinking too much and let your swing do the work. His other warning is that what works in batting practice won't necessarily translate against live pitching. Contreras is known for his vigorous pregame hitting work, which is where Murphy said he fell into that pitfall while trying different hand positions. Raising his hands worked in that practice setting, but not in games. "He goes out in pregame, and he hits it a long way. And it's timing that does that," Murphy said. "It doesn't matter where you have your hands if you time it up with the barrel. You don't get to do that when a guy's changing pitches and that type of thing." This is the second straight season in which Contreras's offense has declined, but he remains one of the Brewers' most talented hitters. He has the raw power to change a game with one swing, and Milwaukee's lineup functions more efficiently when he's a spark plug near the top of the order. That's the version they've seen over the past couple of weeks, and the version they hope to get in October. "He's learning, and he's been a good hitter his whole career, so he'll get back to being himself," Murphy said. "I think he's on track." View full article

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Pitcher-batter matchups are often framed as a handedness thing. Generally speaking, a same-sided matchup is more favorable for the pitcher, while an opposite-handed matchup favors the hitter. Left-handed hitters are better against right-handed pitchers, and right-handed hitters are better against left-handed pitchers. The left-on-left matchup is particularly tough for hitters, partially because lefties see fewer southpaws than righties do fellow righties. In reality, it's more complex than that. Matchups are really about the angle at which the hitter sees the pitch. Handedness usually determines much of that angle. Most pitchers throw from a three-quarters arm slot or lower, and they run, cut, or sweep their pitches. Those right-handed pitchers release the ball closer to a right-handed hitter, making it tougher to pick up out of the hand. Add some late run barreling in on them or late break sweeping away, and it gets even more uncomfortable. A lefty, meanwhile, gets a clearer window to see that pitcher's release. That's not always the case, though. For over-the-top pitchers with riding four-seamers, 12-6 curveballs, and straight changeups, the horizontal angles of their pitches don't change much from one side to the other. These pitchers can sometimes be platoon neutral or even have reverse splits. Different swing paths also line up better or worse against different pitch shapes. Simplifying things to handedness makes sense because it usually tells most of the story, but it doesn't explain everything. For those reasons, Pat Murphy and the Brewers don't automatically default to the most obvious matchup when they write lineups or make pitching changes. Murphy believes in and abides by reverse splits when they can be explained by a pitcher's arsenal or a hitter's swing. He starts Andrew Vaughn and Joey Ortiz against righties who throw mostly four-seamers, but not against those who throw sinkers and sliders. On Friday night, the Brewers faced Texas Rangers southpaw Cody Bradford, who owns reverse splits throughout his big-league career. Righties entered the night with a .707 OPS against him, while lefties had a .731 OPS. That's not a statistical fluke. Bradford throws from a higher arm slot, and more than 85% of his pitches this year have been a straight fastball with occasional slight cut and a changeup. Here's what a right-handed hitter sees from Bradford, visualized with Statcast's 3D ball tracking. The fastball and changeup are nearly inseparable by the time he must decide whether to swing. Flip those same pitches to a lefty point of view, and that separation becomes much easier to see. That was part of the calculus when Murphy rolled out his usual lineup of left-handed hitters against Bradford. Christian Yelich, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, and David Hamilton all started. "The way we look at it, it's not any lefty versus any lefty, but there are times when that guy's kind of a reverse-split guy, there's times when we leave our lefties in there," he said. There was even more to it than the hitting matchups. Murphy and the Brewers also felt their left-handed hitters were better positioned to bunt for hits against Bradford. As a lefty, he falls off toward third base as he delivers the ball, making a drag bunt down the first-base line difficult to defend. Lefty hitters can also take an early step toward first while dropping down that bunt, getting them down the line faster and forcing Bradford to make an even quicker play. "Sometimes it's easier to bunt left-on-left with that guy falling off the other way," Murphy said. It worked right from the get-go. Brice Turang led off the bottom of the first by bunting toward first, stepping into the bunt and springing out of the box as he made contact. After Bradford redirected his momentum and spun around, he misfired the ball down the line, allowing Turang to advance to second. Turang advanced to third on Jackson Chourio's flyout, then scored on William Contreras's groundout. Yelich then one-hopped an RBI double off the wall in left-center to score Bauers, who reached base on a walk. Hamilton added insurance in the sixth, lining a left-on-left fastball up the middle to score Mitchell. After Bradford left the game, Murphy stuck with his lefties against lefty reliever Adam Macko in the eighth, and they continued to take advantage. Frelick and Hamilton bunted for back-to-back singles to lead off the eighth. Both later scored to make it a 6-1 game, allowing another day of rest for Trevor Megill after a rare multi-inning appearance in New York. "We executed that three or four times perfectly," Murphy said. "So, yeah, sometimes you leave lefties in." Murphy and the Brewers didn't play conventional matchups, and it created most of their offense on Friday night. It was the latest example of winning on the margins both on the field and in the dugout, which has made Milwaukee the most successful regular-season team in baseball for the second year in a row. View full article