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    Joey Ortiz is Letting it Rip

    It’s impossible to quantify confidence, but in Joey Ortiz’s case, how hard and how often he’s swinging the bat are pretty good indicators.

    Jack Stern
    Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

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    Early in the season, the left side of the infield looked like a short-term weakness for the Brewers. For now, Pat Murphy faces the good problem of finding playing time for three capable players between shortstop and third base.

    Barring an acquisition before next Monday’s trade deadline, Milwaukee will probably get less offense from shortstop and third base than most other positions. It’s still safest to assume none of Cooper Pratt, Joey Ortiz, or David Hamilton will be above-average hitters by season’s end. Pratt and Ortiz have been red-hot in July, though, and Hamilton’s elite range has helped him accrue 7 Defensive Runs Saved at third base despite shoddy fundamentals and a nagging elbow issue.

    Before the Brewers’ series against the Colorado Rockies last weekend, Murphy was asked how the club would handle playing time on the left side of the infield after Hamilton’s return from a brief stint on the injured list.

    “We get them all in there,” he said. “Pratt, Ortiz, Hamilton, they all play a lot. They’re all starters.”

    The Brewers like all three players, so it makes sense to balance their opportunities accordingly. However, since Hamilton and Ortiz are both great defenders and below-average hitters, it also makes sense to ride the hot hand for now at third base.

    That’s how Murphy seems inclined to play things. On Friday, Ortiz started at shortstop over Pratt to get him and Hamilton in the same lineup. On Monday night, he started at third base against right-handed starter Tyler Mahle.

    “If he keeps playing well, he’ll keep playing,” Murphy said on Friday. “There’s days that it doesn’t match up as [well], but he’s been great for us, and we’re not going to do anything to hurt his confidence.”

    “Confidence” has long been Murphy’s buzzword surrounding Ortiz’s play, but lately, it’s been repeated in a positive context. After he lost his shortstop job to Pratt, Murphy met with Ortiz and reminded him that the Brewers still valued his abilities. He cited longtime Marlins and Dodgers utility man Miguel Rojas as a shortstop who became the best version of himself after a long stretch as a spare piece. Within a few days, Ortiz responded. Since June 29, he’s hitting .316/.358/.592 (157 wRC+). In just 191 innings at third base, he has already racked up 4 DRS.

    “My view is that I’m on the team for a reason,” Ortiz said after falling a home run shy of hitting for the cycle last Wednesday. “Wherever they need to put me, I’m gladly ready to play anywhere they need me.”

    “He’s just in a good, free space,” Murphy said. “He sees the ball a little more confident with two strikes. A little more confident, period. Just swinging the bat with conviction.”

    Ortiz has made some subtle tweaks to his setup and stride in the box, but conviction has made the greatest difference. He’s swinging at more strikes, and he’s swinging harder.

    Split xwOBA Z-Swing% Bat Speed (MPH) Fast Swing% Hard Hit%
    Through June 28 .285 55.6% 72.3 21.6% 32.4%
    Since June 29 .341 60.8% 74.3 49.2% 41.3%

    Ortiz’s bat speed is up by 2 MPH, and his rate of “fast swings” (defined by Statcast as swings with a bat speed of at least 75 MPH) has more than doubled. That's allowing him to make more hard contact.

    Players can train bat speed with the goal of naturally swinging faster more often, but it's an offseason project. The in-season jump Ortiz has experienced generally does not come from training. That bat speed was already in there; he’s just unleashing it more often.

    During his struggles, Ortiz looked like he was playing defense on offense. He wouldn’t swing the bat until he had to with two strikes, and he wasn’t using his best, most powerful swing. Now, he’s seeing the ball well and letting it rip.

    “He’s way more confident, and when you’re more confident, you can get your 'A' swing off,” Murphy said.

    Publicly, Ortiz said that his confidence hasn’t fluctuated throughout his time in Milwaukee. That can't be fully quantified. However, the authority with which he’s swinging has typically been a solid indirect measurement of how he’s feeling at the plate. Ortiz was similarly great in May 2024, slashing .290/.366/.581 (159 wRC+). That stretch featured strikingly similar swing metrics: an average bat speed of 74.9 mph, a 49.5% fast swing rate, and a 57.4% zone swing rate.

    ortiz_bat_speed.jpeg

    Like that month of May, Ortiz is probably amid his hottest run of the season and won’t keep hitting at this level. He’s been a bit lucky during this stretch to make up for some poor luck earlier in the year. His swing decisions have been better lately, but they still haven’t been great. But there’s been a real shift in his conviction behind his improved results. The Brewers should take advantage of it while Ortiz stays hot.

    “I’m just really happy for the person,” Murphy said.


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