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Is Prince going to see a power dip this year?


adambr2

No reason to be alarmed, but we really haven't seen Prince drive the ball much since late last year. 1 HR in spring training. Even the one he almost hit out yesterday looked like one that normally carries enough for him to get it.

 

I'm not a nutritionalist, and I have no knowledge of whether a strict vegetarian diet is possibly detrimental to his homerun power. Probably not. But after 5 weeks of showing little power I do wish it would start coming around a little bit.

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He's been spraying the ball more with less power to all fields it seems - thus a higher BA possibly. So we may see him go .320/30HR.. he may dip this year and then next season may be a monster year with a .340BA/50HR.. but right now with what he's doing I think so far he's more likely to do the .320BA mark with 30HR's,.. I'm sure his power will come around, but to what extent?
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I guess it all depends on what one means by "power." He's very unlikely to surpass 50 HR again, just because it's incredibly hard to do, but Prince is a lock for 35+ HR per year just almost by accident. However, when I'm considering power, I don't want to sell short the value of 2Bs & SLG in general. Better SLG tends to lead to more OBP, which is obviously a great thing.

 

I personally expect Prince to hit around 45 HR this season, but I'm guessing he'll have his first 40 2B/40 HR season, too. Imo his BA & OBP will go up, and his SLG will be down ever so slightly.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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I guess the problem I see is that you can't use how a guy "starts out" to determine what he's going to produce -- these are just games like Aug.18th-Sept. 12th are just games, too. I like much better to rely on past performances, since you obviously have a larger sample. Seeing as how Prince is a young player who's growing, at the least we shouldn't expect him to regress much. Then again, "regress" is all so subjective. Some fans would see a season where Prince "only" hit 38 HR as a step back, even if he drew over 100 BBs & surpassed 40 2Bs.

 

What I try to do is gauge a range of 'expectability' (sorry, don't know how to say it). Prince has high 30 to low 60 HR potential imo, so I can't really be too upset if he hits 37, or too excited if he were to hit 58 (well, that would be pretty exciting... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ). I'm no expert, but I've found that not trying to define 'success' or 'failure' too strictly has helped me understand the fluctuations of baseball much, much better.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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Didn't it take until May for Prince to start cranking home runs last year? Personally, I don't think Prince looks that comfortable at the plate right now, but it's so very early and he will find a groove because he is that good of a hitter.
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