2014-05-13 Pirates (Cole) at Brewers (Estrada), 7:10 PM CDT [Braun returns, Gomez still active; Brewers win, 5-2]

[ttsather]

Following on Gameday -- did they really double steal with two outs, on a 2-0 pitch with Braun at the plate?

 

I'm hopeful there were some extenuating circumstances that Gameday didn't describe, but I have a sinking feeling that there weren't.

[coolcool]

Probably a stupid decision for the steal, but hey, it gave us a run.

 

Also wondering if they're trying to limit Braun or something.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Brewers aren't even close to the favorites:

 

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

 

16/1, behind 11 teams.

 

I wouldn't put too much stock into those websites. I prefer to get the numbers from the source itself

 

I suppose with the Hot start for the Brewers and the long shot odds at the beginning of the season everyone jumped on the bet and drove the odds way down. 5/1 is probably more a correction than a reflection of their actual chances. Still seems way out of whack though.

 

Even with the hot start, I don't think the public would bet on the Brewers to win the series. I think it's more the casinos making the Brewers more expensive before the sharps start to bet on them. The public is still going to back popular teams like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Tigers, etc. Anyways, I find it pretty cool that Milwaukee is at 5/1. I never thought that I'd see that.

[phnxcrew]

too much to ask for you to get through 5 marco? Huge pitch count

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm only watching on gamecast, did the Gomez HBP look at all intentional, or did one just get away from Cole?

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

Even with the hot start, I don't think the public would bet on the Brewers to win the series. I think it's more the casinos making the Brewers more expensive before the sharps start to bet on them. The public is still going to back popular teams like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Tigers, etc. Anyways, I find it pretty cool that Milwaukee is at 5/1. I never thought that I'd see that.

 

 

Interesting that the sub .500 Cardinals are still 4/1 and 8/1 to win the NL, and the WS, respectively.

[two_three_the_count]

I'm only watching on gamecast, did the Gomez HBP look at all intentional, or did one just get away from Cole?

 

Naw, FSN showed a slow mo replay of the ball coming out of Cole's hand and it was clearly a changeup grip.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

 

Even with the hot start, I don't think the public would bet on the Brewers to win the series. I think it's more the casinos making the Brewers more expensive before the sharps start to bet on them. The public is still going to back popular teams like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Tigers, etc. Anyways, I find it pretty cool that Milwaukee is at 5/1. I never thought that I'd see that.

 

 

Interesting that the sub .500 Cardinals are still 4/1 and 8/1 to win the NL, and the WS, respectively.

 

The casinos still give them a lot of respect. I can see why though. You can never count out that team. How awesome would it be if they completely fell apart?

[Dean Machine]

I put $50 on the Brewers at 75/1 to win the World Series when we were in Vegas at the beginning of March.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

I put $50 on the Brewers at 75/1 to win the World Series when we were in Vegas at the beginning of March.

Nice! You'll have a very nice payout if it happens. Too bad I didn't take the futures bet back in March. I think I might pull the trigger now.

[dlk9s]

If they are really 5/1, I wouldn't touch that.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

If they are really 5/1, I wouldn't touch that.

why?

[jjkoestler]

Some Badger Mutual Insurance runs would be nice right now.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

atta boy!!!

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Scooter is such a good and reliable player.

[jjkoestler]

I really thought they would walk Braun. Luc needs to come up big here.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Ouch...bad at bat by Braun

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Come on Luc finish it here.

[phnxcrew]

That was one of the worst ab's i've ever seen braun have

[brewcrewdue80]

If they are really 5/1, I wouldn't touch that.

why?

 

Me Neither. That's pretty terrible odds imo. I wouldn't touch 5-1 even the day before the playoffs began and the Brewers were in it. What are you going to bet? $100? to win 500? Way too many games/too much can happen to take a team out of the playoffs, no matter how many games they won in the regular season. Pitching matchups after the first round could make or break a series. Ryan Braun/Gomez injuries would make that 5-1 odds bet look sad 2months from now.

 

I'd get 5-1 if the regular season were over and the Brewers had the best record in baseball with hosting the WS due to a NL win in the AS game. But today? I wouldn't touch 50-1 to win the WS.

[jjkoestler]

Let's go 3TO

[endaround]

Why did Estrada bat at 102 pitches?

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

mother freaker

[phnxcrew]

ugh. ugly inning. Needed one or two runs there.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

If they are really 5/1, I wouldn't touch that.

why?

 

Me Neither. That's pretty terrible odds imo. I wouldn't touch 5-1 even the day before the playoffs began and the Brewers were in it. What are you going to bet? $100? to win 500? Way too many games/too much can happen to take a team out of the playoffs, no matter how many games they won in the regular season. Pitching matchups after the first round could make or break a series. Ryan Braun/Gomez injuries would make that 5-1 odds bet look sad 2months from now.

 

I'd get 5-1 if the regular season were over and the Brewers had the best record in baseball with hosting the WS due to a NL win in the AS game. But today? I wouldn't touch 50-1 to win the WS.

 

you do realize that's still pretty decent right? you're never going to get a good team at 20/1 or 50/1. there's no such thing as a safe bet. if you're the type that looks for the home run, then you're going to strike out a lot. you've got to look for singles and doubles.