27 Things That Will Decide the 2026 World Series: 7th Inning

There aren't 27 different things that will decide this World Series, or else, there are way more than 27. What this series of preview posts dares to ask is: What if that's not true? What if there are exactly 27 key things that will tilt the Series one way or the other? We've already talked about 18 of them. Let's explore a few more.

19. Garrett Mitchell, Finally in Stride
There was something peculiar and old-fashioned-looking about the way Garrett Mitchell finished his swing on his two massive NLCS homers, wasn't there? Didn't it seem like he was walking out of the box almost before he hit it, with his bat still finishing a long and unusually low sweep? It was the opposite of a modern uppercut, at the very least.

This is what Mitchell has been working toward all season, aided by his first prolonged run of good health and more chances to play than he's ever enjoyed before. It wasn't easy to find it, though. To get to that confident stride-and-swing, Mitchell had to do some tricky trial-and-error work.

Early this year, Mitchell's stance was only slightly open. He set up with his feet a little less than three feet apart, and he took a fairly short stride. He was spread-out in the box, as hitters like to say. By early summer, though, he'd begun some big experiments with getting more upright in the box, which means starting with your feet closer together. It also meant, in his case, striding considerably farther, which helped him generate ever greater bat speed. He opened his stance a great deal, and became a big mover in the box.

That wasn't comfortable, though. After some experimentation, Mitchell has now landed back where he was (give or take) in June:

Every hitter is different. They all have to find their comfort zone, when it comes to stance and stride. For Mitchell, the sweet spot has turned out to be setting up with his feet closer to two feet apart than three, a bit (but not dramatically) open, and a stride of just under two feet.

In his first 200 plate appearances as a big-leaguer, Mitchell's average bat speed was 75 miles per hour. That's a very impressive figure, to begin with; it's markedly above the league average. Over his next 200, it was 76.2 MPH. Over the 200 after that, it was 76.4, and after that, 76.9. Finally, over his 200 plate appearances from about mid-June to late July, Mitchell's bat speed spiked all the way to a terrifying 78.3 MPH. It made him dangerous—but it was also too much. Managing that quick a stick proved too tough.

He's only given up a small portion of that bat speed since then, mostly by going back to a more controlled setup and stride. That's what we saw in the NLCS: a hitter whose bat is so fast that even without loft in the swing, he can be lethal. We also saw him moving under control, in a way he wasn't doing two months ago or so.

20. Does Nick Martinez Have (the Opposite of) a Wrinkle in Store?
The signature adjustment the Rays encouraged Nick Martinez to make this season was throwing more sinkers and changeups. They like his arm-side movement profile, particularly from a high arm slot that often makes hitters read glove-side movement at first. There's no denying that Martinez, a converted shortstop, is deceptive, and he's athletic enough to make that kind of change fluidly. Sure enough, he filled up the zone better than anyone in baseball this year. Much has already been written about whether he (and his Rays teammates, many others of whom excel at avoiding walks) will be able to take away the walk from the Brewers, who depend heavily on that as a driver of their offense.

I think that's an interesting question, and without a doubt, it will be fun to see what the Brewers come up with against a pitcher who ran strikeout and walk rates this year almost perfectly in line with late-career Bob Tewksbury—a hurler who pitched 30 years ago, in a very differenht version of the league. For now, though, I want to examine a different question: What if he pitches way differently than he has all year, again?

In his outing against the Guardians in the ALCS, Martinez suddenly swerved away from his newfound sinker dependence—especially against lefties, who made up most of the lineup against him. There's ample research on this, by now: Sometimes, stacking your lineup too comprehensively with opposite-handed batters allows a starting pitcher to get into a mental and physical groove. You might have the platoon advatnage, but they gain an execution advantage. In Game 4, the Guardians ran out a lineup against Martinez that included only one right-handed batter: cleanup man Jo Adell. With everyone else he faced batting left-handed, Martinez reverted to reliance on his four-seam fastball, for the first time (almost) all year.

As you can see from the chart (and the box I drew to pin down a timeframe for discussion), Martinez had already begun to make a change against lefties late in the season, leaning more on his cutter and changeup and eschewing the sinker. With only one righty (and a pretty four-seamer-vulnerable one, at that) on his docket of opponents, Martinez felt confident enough to reach back for a pitch that had been deemphasized in his arsenal this season.

That's less likely to happen in Game 1 against the Brewers. They'll run out Jackson Chourio, William Contreras and Cooper Pratt, at a minimum, making their lineup more of a back-and-forth affair. Martinez will probably use his sinker more and his four-seamer less than against Cleveland. Keep an eye on this, though, especially against lefty bats like Mitchell. The matchup between Martinez and Mitchell might be especially favorable for the Brewers, unless there's another unexpected adjustment up the veteran righty's sleeve.

21. Logan Henderson and the Rays' Approach
The matchup between Logan Henderson and Junior Caminero will be a delightful one. Henderson has exactly the combination of pitches and skills I would want to get Caminero out. He has not been very vulnerable to chasing outside the zone this year, especially on breaking balls away. He can be utterly lethal if you leave a pitch up in (but not above) the zone, and when he sits on anything soft, he can destroy that, too. He hit the first home run ever against Cade Smith's splitter to close out the ALCS.

However, Caminero's very flat swing is not great at adapting to changes of eye level that he can't anticipate, and Henderson throws the best-disguised changeup in baseball. Right-on-right changeups are the perfect way to get Caminero out, as long as you can get him thinking fastball first. It'll be cat-and-mouse between those two all Series. Caminero's exceptionally fast swing means (definitionally) that his barrel isn't in the zone all that long, at least on the proper plane. That makes him susceptible to timing disruptions, and Henderson excels at that. If Caminero ever gets the jump on him, Henderson will be in trouble, but he should be capable of making Caminero look very bad, too. We could see Caminero strike out five times and hit a homer against Henderson in the set; it's that extreme a matchup. The Brewers just have to hope they can either avoid the homer altogether, or have it come when the damage it does is minimal.

That encounter will be a microcosm of a larger dynamic at play, too. The Rays have very flat swings, well-tuned to attack a pitcher like Henderson but not (with some notable exceptions) well-prepared to pull and lift the ball against him. Their key adjustment this season, however, has been to simply swing less often. That's the rational behavioral choice when the strike zone shrinks, which it has unequivocally done since the advent of ABS (and even before it). Only the Cubs and Guardians lowered their team swing rates by more this year than did the Rays. The Brewers will have to attack them and force them to swing, just as Tampa's hurlers will have to do so to Milwaukee—but on both sides, there are guys who can punish you for trying to punish their patience.

It's crunch time, now. Time to come up with some big hits. Come back later today for the penultimate installment in this series.

Do you approve of the job Pat Murphy is doing as Brewers manager?

Do you approve of the job Pat Murphy is doing as Brewers manager?

• Do you approve of the job Pat Murphy is doing as Brewers manager? Required
  

  
• Save

See All Brewers Polls >