Matthew Trueblood

Image courtesy of Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images If you wanted to sum up David Hamilton's 2026 season in one play, you could do much worse than the ground ball Sean Murphy hit during the Brewers' loss to the team from near(ish) Atlanta in MLB's Little League Classic Sunday night in Williamsport, Penn. It was a tricky play. With runners on the corners and two outs, the slow-footed catcher hit a slow bouncer toward third base. Hamilton had been playing deep and guarding the line, respecting Murphy's ability to hit the ball hard and the risk of a second run scoring should he hit a double into the corner. That left a lot of ground for the speedy infielder to cover, but because Murphy moves so poorly, it should have been a relatively easy play. Hamilton got to the ball in fine shape—but then, things crashed to an ugly halt. Having taken a slightly errant angle on a ball that died faster than he'd expected on the soft turf of the Williamsport infield, Hamilton tried to come to a two-footed stop and pick the ball up with both hands. It was a late adjustment in response to that initial misread, but it made for an awkward stop—and his feet simply went out from under him. A big chunk of turf gave way, too, making clear that the player alone wasn't at fault. He'd had to adjust because of the field conditions; the conditions further betrayed him and put him on the seat of his pants. A run scored, and the inning continued. M3k2ampfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0F3a0RBUUlDWGxZQURsdFJCUUFBQWxKZkFBTURBQVFBQjFjTUJ3VlRVZ2RSVmxaUQ==.mp4 The metaphor for Hamilton's season was almost overwhelming. He started in a position from which he had a chance to succeed, and it was undoubtedly the best position for the team, but it asked a lot of him. He didn't make the play correctly, but he also paid a heavier price than seemed fair. That's what it's been like to watch him all year. The Brewers brought him in with a role in mind, and he's filled that role. He hasn't thrived in it, though, partially because it's not a role in which anyone is likely to thrive; partially because he hasn't quite held up his end of the bargain; and partially because of some rotten luck. While the Brewers have a tried-and-true system for the development and optimization of a certain type of player, Hamilton has proved not to be a perfect fit for that system. He's been left with some developmental whiplash, even at a phase of his career where 'development' ceases to be the word a player wants to associate with their progress. He's been asked to become more patient, hit more line drives, catch the ball deeper in the hitting zone and make more contact; he's managed that. However, he's lost what little pop he had in the process, and the gains in his plate discipline (on an outcome basis) haven't been what the Brewers surely hoped they would be. He's not walking enough to justify the way he's altered his swing itself. Part of the blame for that, though, falls on Hamilton, who has joined Team Swing Decisions and not made materially better ones. Meanwhile, in the field, he's been a colossal disappointment. The play above encapsulates some of the issue. Yes, the ball slowed down more than he expected, and yes, the softness of the ground makes that diamond different from most big-league infields. Had he turned his body correctly and charged the ball straight-on, though, he would have been able to deal with both complications and get the out. Stopping that way and fielding that ball with two hands is precisely the wrong way to do it; that needs to be an on-the-run, one-handed pick, be it barehand or glove. Hamilton took an initial angle that left him a smaller window in which he could field the ball that way, so when it was slower than he thought, he had to change to a more difficult form of playmaking. That's been his defense this year in a nutshell. You can see the special tools, but the fundamentals are often wrong by just enough to cause disaster. His throws are strong, but not always accurate. His range is excellent, but his hands aren't as quick or as soft as you would guess. The only place where Hamilton has come as advertised is on the bases, and even there, he hasn't been quite as aggressive or as efficient as the team might have hoped. Pat Murphy was effusive about Hamilton's potential in the spring, in a way that always seemed a bit too rosy for a player who had gotten so close to 30 without having a breakthrough. Sure enough, Hamilton hasn't delivered on that potential, even though you can still see it there, waiting to be tapped. Not all of that is Hamilton's fault. Playing mostly as a platoon option at two different positions that are each demanding, he's been denied any easy routine. He also dealt with an elbow issue for much of the season, and then tried to manage and rehab both that injury and his hamstring strain once the latter force him onto the injured list. He's tough, and he's worked hard for the team. The results haven't been there, but the club hasn't been disappointed in his work ethic or willingness to do what they ask of him. Still, one has to hope better days lie ahead for him. The Brewers need as many of their roster pieces functioning at a high level as is possible, come the postseason. Their patience with Hamilton could yet pay huge dividends, because the player Murphy described and envisioned earlier this year does peek out now and then, and he can be a game-wrecker—especially offensively. If he never takes to the difficult jobs he's been given, he could depart this winter, with the team sliding Joey Ortiz into that role next season as they make way for Jesús Made. For now, though, Hamilton remains in the medium-term plans. Thus, he needs to overcome the things the universe keeps putting in his way and make some good things happen. View full article

Well, no, the best option they have at first is Bauers.

There's a chance both are gone. I think it's a small chance. In addition to everything they bring on the field, the team really likes what each brings in the clubhouse. This is one of those subtle places where I think you'll see this team evolve, as their success begets more success and their revenues rise: Where you might have seen them let both guys go a couple years ago, they'll keep one, even if it means raising the payroll $5-10 million.

Fear Of Missing Out envy, in this case

Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-Imagn Images It was a bad night for the Brewers' latest two-player trade package. Dustin May's third start with the team went dreadfully, as the Mariners took out their frustrations over Tuesday's 22-0 whupping by chasing May after seven early runs. JoJo Romero is still on the injured list. The clock is ticking on getting value from that deal, since both May and Romero are impending free agents. Besides, it would have been nice to win that game, securing a series victory and widening the team's advantage over the Cubs after they lost Wednesday afternoon. For those willing to look beyond the final score, though, there was some real consolation to be found as the game unfolded. Joey Ortiz had three hits, including a home run, and his hot streak continues. In fact, it's only picking up steam. Since the promotion of Cooper Pratt that pushed Ortiz back to third base, the former Orioles farmhand is batting .302/.340/.519 in 142 plate appearances. He's not walking nearly as often as he did before that (6.3%, versus 11.8% prior to Pratt's call-up), but for Ortiz, walks aren't always a good sign. They often signal passivity, rather than real selectivity and a balanced approach at the plate. When Ortiz is focused on drawing walks, it's because he's not confident in his swing and because he's not able to get the bat head out and do damage. Over this recent stretch, he has 14 extra-base hits, more than doubling his season total in less playing time than he had before the transition. An aggressive Ortiz who's getting to the ball even a little bit farther out in front is the best version of the player, at least at this juncture of his career. It's helped that, of late, Ortiz's bat speed has trended up. Early this season, he struggled to generate the same lethal swings that made him enticing as a prospect, but that element is back in his game this summer. In a perfect world, a batter would create that extra whip without making a significant tradeoff in the shape of their swing. Ortiz isn't a perfect-world kind of hitter, though. He has an unusual profile, letting the ball get much deeper than most hitters with similarly flat swings. In some ways, it makes him dangerous and difficult to defend, but it's also the source of his inconsistency and occasional slumps. He's not a guy who comfortably generates bat speed the same way other hitters do; he's always making tradeoffs. Unsurprisingly, therefore, his boost in swing speed has come with a flattening of his bat path. What Ortiz has also done, though, is get rid of some of the bat wrap in his load. Early this year, you could see Ortiz counterrotate with his hands and shoulders even as his front foot came down, turning such that the end of his bat momentarily faced out toward the pitcher. That move creates considerable torque, but it also risks making you late. It makes your swing longer early, and it ever-so-slightly delays beginning your actual progress toward the ball. Nowadays, Ortiz isn't doing that as much. His move keeps the bat more neutral in its position before he starts to move his hands toward the hitting zone. When that does happen, there's a bit more snap to the hands. He can't create as steep a swing that way, but by generating the same bat speed and starting a hair earlier, he's getting to the ball with his bat working uphill more often than earlier this year—making the force he delivers to the ball pay off more handsomely. NXk5UUJfWGw0TUFRPT1fVlFaU0JnSUhBRmNBV1ZRQ1VRQUhBQUZWQUFNRVZBY0FWd05YQ1FaV0J3QUFDQVpV.mp4 For a few weeks this spring, it looked like Ortiz might not have any place in the Brewers' future. He was displaced positionally by Pratt, but if David Hamilton had been playing just a little better or Ortiz had responded just a little worse to that change, he might not even be in the majors right now. Because of Milwaukee's glut of infield options, he might still have to find his forever home somewhere else, but the last two months have made it clear that Ortiz can be a productive big-leaguer. Wednesday night offered the latest proof of his upside. One way or another, he's got a lot of value left to offer the team. Ditto, it seems, for DL Hall, who worked three shutout innings as the bullpen kept Seattle quiet. Over his last five appearances, Hall has fired eight frames of one-run ball, allowing two hits and two walks against eight strikeouts. Like Ortiz, Hall finds his success unconventionally. He's not a huge strikeout guy, and he walks more batters than is ideal, but he consistently limits damage by opposing batters. Earlier this summer, I wrote about the broad skill of swing disruption, using Statcast's swing timing and miss distance data. The piece focused on Aaron Ashby, but only because Hall was on the injured list at the time. It's Hall who best dominates batters in this specific sense. He's great at forcing them to slightly (only slightly, but that's often enough) mistime their swing, and at getting them to hit the ball off the end of the bat, and at getting them to hit the bottom third of the ball, which often results in lazy fly balls. Unconventional though he might be, Hall is now fully back in the groove, and he's more important to the team's bullpen than initially planned or hoped. His showing Wednesday night was the latest evidence that he's up to the task. The Brewers lost an ugly game, but it was just one. They're still in good shape as they try to sew up their fourth straight division title and secure a bye to the Division Series. The game also yielded reasons to hope that Ortiz and Hall can sustain their positive contributions, which is great news. Both players, acquired as a package like May and Romero but at the much higher cost of Corbin Burnes before the 2024 campaign, have multiple avenues by which they can help the team remain successful for several more seasons. View full article

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-Imagn Images It's not easy to be a 5-foot-10 big-league first baseman. Anywhere on a baseball diamond, there are ways to make up for a lack of size or speed in certain ways, but the dimensions of the field and the timing of the game remain constant, and that creates real constraints for players based on their physical gifts and skills. Andrew Vaughn has spent time at third base for the Brewers recently and played a couple of games at second base for the White Sox earlier in his career. He's had slightly longer tours in each outfield corner. Because he's thickly built, slow and has a relatively weak arm, though, he's mostly been a first baseman, and he'll never fit neatly anywhere else. Unfortunately, the latest Statcast data on receiving throws at first base reveal why he's not a good fit at first, either. Of the 42 first basemen who have had 100 or more chances receiving throws this season, Vaughn ranks fourth-worst in Outs Above Average based on that skill, with -3. The three players who have racked up more negative value have all had more than double his number of opportunities. Pound for pound, he might be the worst receiver of infield throws in the game. Let's dig into the how and why of that. Baseball Savant breaks down Receiving OAA based on the type of play the first baseman in question is trying to make, as well as reporting a total. Included categories are: On Target: Throws that pass within a 2.5-foot of first base while also between 1 and 7 feet high Bounce: Throws that bounce at least 15 feet from the base en route to the first baseman Scoops: Throws that bounce between 5 and 15 feet from the base Low: Throws that arrive less than 1 foot above the ground High: Throws that arrive more than 7 feet above the ground Wide: Throws that arrive more than 2.5 feet wide of the base There's some slight overlap in these categories, because some scoops and bounces also go into the low or wide bin, but you get the idea. Breaking it down this way lets us study which players struggle with which types of throws. For Vaughn, unfortunately, the most glaring problems don't come on the balls farthest off the mark. There are some problems in that area, and we'll get to them in a bit, but the worst news is that only Phillies first baseman (now right fielder) Bryce Harper is the only player with a worse OAA on On Target throws this year. Vaughn has cost the Brewers 2.6 expected outs on plays that didn't feature an errant or challenging throw at all. Here's an example. SzRYMWVfWGw0TUFRPT1fQVFJQ0JsMVZWbE1BRDFzQVZnQUhWRkpSQUFNSFVsQUFWbEFCQVFGVVVsY0hVUU1B.mp4 Again, height is a negotiable constraint on the way a player handles first base, but it's not a fully escapable one. On this play, the speed of Eli White and the length of the throw Joey Ortiz had to make made it vital that Vaughn intercept the ball as soon as possible. He didn't get there soon enough. The sheer length of his stretch is limited by his height and the length of his arms and legs, but there's another factor, too. Watch his anchor foot, on the side of the base, and the way his body is oriented as a result. A taller (and/or left-handed) first baseman could have received this throw differently, as well as being able to stretch farther. Knowing the limitations of his stretch, when taking such a long throw from that across-the-diamond angle, Vaughn has to cheat toward the center of the bag so he can adjust and slide back to play throws just like this one. Other first basemen could have come more to the front corner of the bag and cut the throw off a foot sooner in flight; that would have made the difference here. Statcast estimates an expected out rate of almost 78% on that play, so Vaughn is docked by the metric for not being better positioned and better able to reach for the ball. Here's an even more straightforward case of a good throw going to waste because of Vaughn's positioning on the base. Yes, it would help if he were taller, but he also has to get to the front part of the base here. If he does, he's a crucial few inches closer to the incoming throw and makes the catch in time. OTdWNWxfWGw0TUFRPT1fQlZOVFVnVlNBRllBQ2dOVVZnQUhWVk1FQUFOVEFWSUFBbDFSQkZJQVVGVlhWUXRW.mp4 Even when he gets to the right part of the base and stretches almost heroically, though, sometimes the dimensions are just against him. Here, Luis Rengifo makes as strong a throw as he can under the circumstances, but Vaughn's height leaves too much time and space. Fernando Tatis Jr. outruns the throw and catch. QndSNmRfWGw0TUFRPT1fVlZkVkIxeFZVQW9BRFFBREJ3QUhVRkJVQUFBTlYxRUFBbGNEQ1FFSFVGWmRCbEZS.mp4 Often, in baseball, there's something you could have done better, even if making a given play would have been viciously difficult and no one would think of giving you an error. With Vaughn, we can sometimes see cases in which he simply couldn't do anything more—but someone else, with just a bit more leg length and wingspan to work with, could have converted the out. Here's another such case. TDY1cWJfWGw0TUFRPT1fQUFoVkIxZFhYMUFBQ2dZRlZ3QUhCVk5YQUZrSFZGUUFBRnhXVmdNR1VGZFdVbGRV.mp4 Though initially called an out, this one was overturned on review. That's how close plays like these often are, and why it matters more in this replay-review era than it might have 20 years ago. Watch the play a couple of times, and you can even imagine how one of the game's taller first basemen and better receivers would have made the play: a different angle, a longer reach, a quicker catch and an out that held up to slow-motion scrutiny. It's when his infielders are accurate that Vaughn's shortcomings (no pun intended) are most glaring, but of course, he's also ill-equipped to rescue a player who makes a high throw. MTZOYlZfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUZRQ1VnSU5CVkVBVzFGVFh3QUhCQVlFQUFBQ1dnQUFDbFVBQmdaV0JsWUFCQXBU.mp4 That goes down as a throwing error, and well it should. If Vaughn is the height of Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson, though, it's an out—a nervous-making one, but an out. Unfortunately, we also have to talk about how clumsy Vaughn often looks around the base. For a player whose professional experience has come mostly at the cold corner, he plays like it's a new spot for him sometimes. He's slow to reach the base, which is why he's sometimes not set up as well as he should be on it when preparing to catch the ball. It also leads him to get turned around and lose his balance on balls that would be much more catchable if he were bigger, but should be playable even at his size. MnI0QVFfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUFVRFZRZFJVZ0lBWEZKUkFBQUhCZ1VGQUZoVEJWZ0FVQUFFVlFzSENWZGNCd0JT.mp4 That slow decision-making even shows up on balls to his side of the diamond, and contributes to him reaching the base late and being improperly positioned for throws from Brice Turang when the second baseman has to range far toward first to make plays. Again, you can see how a bigger guy could still reach out and make up for his mistake, but the mistake is mostly that he was in such a bad position to begin with. TUFYRzFfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUZSVFVGVUdVQVlBV2dGV1Z3QUhVbFFDQUZrR1VWQUFBQWRUQ1ZVTVZWWURBVmNG.mp4 As you'd guess, Vaughn rates worse than average both on high throws and on wide ones. He's a plus scooper of throws in the dirt and navigator of long bounces, though. He takes proper advantage of his proximity to the ground when one of his teammates puts a throw there. That's not enough to balance out the lack of physical range (in three dimensions) on all other types of throws, but it's nice consolation. Alas, that's exactly where Jake Bauers struggles. The Brewers' bigger, more athletic, left-handed first baseman would rate as above-average, but for a few poor plays on which he's crouched awkwardly and unnecessarily when trying to pick low throws, with disastrous results. cU9sTmtfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0JRRlhBUVpRVXdRQVdWc0tYd0FIVnc4RUFGaFhXd0FBQndBQVZGSUFCRkVHVmxaZg==.mp4 The net effect of the Brewers' first base receiving has been to give up a few extra infield singles and foist a few unearned throwing errors on the rest of the infield defense this year. It's been ugly. Maybe you noticed this, in the clips above, but the negative impacts of those plays have also disproportionately fallen on the team's two best pitchers. Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison are two of the top three pitchers in the league this season in terms of OAA lost due to first base receiving, a strange quirk that underscores how good those two have been—but which also makes clear the urgency of fixing this issue (to whatever extent that's possible) come October. Bauers can operate much better mechanically on low throws and bouncers. Vaughn, however, is a trickier case. He might always be prone to leaking outs based on his size and the limitations of his range around the bag. It's one of the rare immutable realities of baseball, a sport that generally makes room for all body sizes and types. As the Brewers consider how to distribute their playing time at first base down the stretch and which (if either) of Bauers and Vaughn to keep this winter, this might be a tiebreaking consideration worthy of note. View full article

Image courtesy of Jon Endow-Imagn Images Earlier this season, I wrote about the way Cooper Pratt emerged from his shell after a few weeks in the major leagues. When he first got the call to the bigs, he maintained a very deep contact point and a patient approach. He didn't cut loose with his 'A' swing very often. He was there to provide steady defense at an important position and to be a low-ceiling, high-floor eighth or ninth batter on most days. Once he got to about 80 plate appearances, though, the Brewers allowed him to get more aggressive. This is a pattern you can watch unfold multiple times, as you sift through the slew of young players the team has promoted over the last few years. Joey Ortiz, Brice Turang, and Sal Frelick all went through similar apprenticeships, even after reaching the majors. Jackson Chourio's was a more chaotic first month or two, given that he was a 20-year-old rookie and one of the highest-ceiling prospects in team history, but the same essential principles applied. The Brewers believe a hitter needs time to learn how they'll be pitched in the majors, and what getting hits against that pitching requires. They want them to learn the situational aspects of hitting in that crucible, and to prioritize seeing the ball well and making good swing decisions. Once those hurdles are cleared, the team gives the player the green light to be their more assertive self. That process is still playing out with Luis Lara, even though he's come to bat 98 times since being recalled early last month. Lara is young, and he's small, and his calling card is defense, but that's not why the team has yet to take the training wheels off him. It's simpler than that. Lara is a switch-hitter, which means he's only come up 77 times as a lefty and 21 times as a righty. He's still earlier in that transitional phase than his raw numbers imply. Recently, that's put the player and the team in a tough spot. Frelick has been on the injured list. Christian Yelich is active, but he's clearly in decline. Turang has sputtered a bit and battled nagging injuries, and Pratt, Ortiz and David Hamilton have all been in and out of the lineup with injuries of varying severities. That's created a vacuum where the club's elite offensive production used to be. It would be great if Lara could step forward and fill a portion of it. As far as the Brewers are concerned, though, it's not worth asking their young outfielder to change what he's been doing since coming up. He's not yet having tremendous success, but his approach to date—that deep contact point, very little chase, very little swing-and-miss—fits the roadmap to success. One of the luxuries of being in control of your division, as the Brewers always seem to be, is the ability to keep telling a player like Lara to do what they've been doing—to stay dedicated to development. More than most good teams, the Brewers are willing to give up a run or a win now and then for the promise of a five-fold return on the investment two years later. Lara is in that place right now. That decision is made even easier right now, though, by the fact that Lara has two swings to maintain and two approaches to learn. With a cushion in the NL Central and the best record in the National League, the Crew have been able to eschew the potential to turn the youngster into a more dynamic (but more erratic) offensive presence. They're not ready, yet, to have him start attacking the ball more aggressively or changing what he's looking for. They want him to be the best version of himself next year and in 2028, and that means asking him not to risk too much in pursuit of being the best version of himself in 2026. Before the year is out, that will change. Lara will tap into a little more power and start contributing more to the lineup down the stretch. For now, though, despite the injuries and struggles afflicting the team, Milwaukee is still counseling their rookie to stay within himself and learn the ropes. They've earned the option to do so. Even if he never does fully click this season, they'll be ok—and they'll be better off next season, too, as they pursue what could be a fifth straight division crown. View full article

Image courtesy of Jon Endow-Imagn Images It's only been two starts, but the early returns suggest that the Brewers have a specific plan for Dustin May: throw your cutter more. No, more. No, even more than that. May, whom the team acquired just hours before the trade deadline on August 3, has allowed just 12 baserunners and three runs in 13 innings over his first two appearances for Milwaukee. The Crew prized him for the depth of his arsenal and his feel for moving the ball in all four directions, but while his best pitch (according to Baseball Prospectus's StuffPro) is his sweeper, it's the cutter the team has ratcheted up his usage of so far. As I often say, every pitcher is really two different creatures: one against same-handed batters and one against opposite-handed ones. For different reasons, the Brewers and May have elected to have him throw more cutters regardless of which type of batter he's facing, and the results speak for themselves. Let's drill down on their reasons for each change of gameplan. Against righties, May's exceptionally heavy sinker runs the show. During his stint with the Cardinals, however, he used that pitch to set up high four-seamers and sweepers that would run the opposite of the direction of his sinker. Since joining Milwaukee, the sinker has set the stage for the cutter, instead. It's a pitch May can keep on the plate and in the zone better, but as long as he executes each offering, the resulting contact is bound to be weak and harmless. Against lefties, the cutter was more prominent even while May pitched for St. Louis. His four-seamer and the cutter pair well to those batters. Since coming to Milwaukee, though, he's switched the roles of the two pitches. He's using the cutter as the primary offering, and then the four-seamer as the change of eye level. The Brewers do this more than almost any other team in the league: letting one of the more horizontal fastball shapes force hitters into a visual box, then throwing the four-seamer off that to make it harder to catch up to. The secret to both changes, though, is that May's cutter makes a better anchor pitch than most pitchers' do. Because of his size and extension, his relatively vanilla raw arm angle is more deceptive than the data initially suggests. That also changes what a hitter sees and expects out of his hand. According to Prospectus, batters are only likely to accurately identify the cutter 52.6% of the time. Meanwhile, the pitch his four-seamer and changeup are most frequently mistaken for is the cutter. May's ability to move the ball east and west, achieve depth on the breaking ball and find more carry on the four-seamer than most similar pitchers makes him an extremely high-upside addition to the starting rotation. His cutter is so firm (and his command of it to the glove-side edge of the plate is so good) that it sits neatly in the default position, allowing him to force both lefties and righties to cover a big strike zone and a wide variety of speeds and shapes by working off the cutter. Again, it's only been two starts. The matchups in his next two might dictate that May and whichever catcher is paired with him operate differently. So far, though, the returns on the Brewers' change to his pitch mix have been excellent. The team who most loves to attack with fastballs has a new hurler who thrives with three different flavors of fastball. It's a match made in heaven. View full article

Image courtesy of Kirby Lee-Imagn Images The Dodgers sent the best left-handed starting pitcher in baseball to the mound Sunday. For most of his career, Jake Bauers could plan on being on the bench on days like that. Instead, he was not only in the lineup, but on base all day, notching four hits in a convincing Brewers win. By the end of the contest, he was batting .275/.384/.500 for the season. He's already come to bat 448 times, hit 21 homers and drawn 65 walks, which are all career-highs. At age 30, he's hurtling toward a significant free-agent payday, just two years after being a castoff who had to limp back to the Brewers on a minor-league deal. Because Bauers has never been an in-demand free agent before, though, the Brewers will have one more chance to realize some value even when his contract expires at the end of this year's World Series. He's eligible to receive a qualifying offer, which is likely to be worth around $23 million for 2027. If the Brewers issue one (and if Bauers declines it), they could receive a significant draft pick as compensation when he signs elsewhere. It's rare that the Brewers elect to extend a qualifying offer to a departing free agent. Historically, they only do so with premium players whom they would earnestly love to keep, albeit only on terms the player is likely to exceed by shopping their services to the highest bidder. They issued QOs to Willy Adames after the 2024 campaign and to Brandon Woodruff last fall. Whenever there's a real question of whether to do so, though, they default to not doing it, because their budget makes a player earning that much a bit of a burden. For anyone other than a beloved cornerstone, it's hard to justify giving out over $20 million a year when the whole team will make less than $150 million. Bauers, then, will be an interesting test case. His production this season is as good or better than that of Pete Alonso last year, before he signed a lucrative five-year deal with the Orioles this winter—though Alonso didn't have the QO attached to him then, after having circled back to the Mets on a short-term deal with opt-outs included in the 2024-25 offseason when he did have that encumbrance. It's also better than that of Nick Castellanos, who signed a five-year deal with the Phillies after declining the Reds' QO in late 2021. Bauers is a better athlete than either Castellanos or Alonso, and isn't significantly older than they were when hitting free agency in those years. However, he doesn't have the same lengthy track record that both Alonso and Castellanos boasted at those times. From the player's perspective, this is a first (and likely only) chance to cash in at a high salary on a multi-year deal. Even if they produce the way Bauers has this year, few first basemen garner big offers or long-term commitments as they head toward their mid-30s. If the Brewers did extend Bauers a QO, he would face a dilemma. Taking the deal would probably mean eschewing a larger one. The Brewers, however, face their own dilemma. As much as they might trust and like Bauers, and as valuable as he has been this season, he'd have to be similarly brilliant next year to be worth $23 million in the context of their payroll. Should they gamble on either getting that great a return or having him turn down the offer, or should they simply wish him well and wave goodbye after the World Series? The big, lurking variable in that problem might be Andrew Vaughn—but not in the way you'd expect. Although his season has been rendered strange and frustrating by the broken hamate bone he suffered on Opening Day and Bauers usurping him in his absence, Vaughn is playing superbly again this year. He looks like a solid option at first base for 2027, should Bauers leave, and the Brewers do have one more year of club control over him. However, Vaughn is also making $7.65 million already this year, and despite the missed time, he figures to get near $10 million via arbitration if the team doesn't first trade or non-tender him in the second half of November. In Vaughn and Bauers, Milwaukee has two players who profile as great first basemen for 2027. Either would be an expensive solution, though, and keeping both probably isn't an option. That, oddly, frees the team up in its decision-making, because Bauers will hit free agency just after the World Series and they'll have to decide about the QO within days. Bauers himself will then have to decide whether to accept the offer over the ensuring fortnight, and all of that has to happen before the decision point comes on Vaughn's arbitration eligibility. The Brewers can (and should, barring some development between now and then that alters the state of play) extend a QO to Bauers, and then wait to see whether he accepts it or not. If he does, they can save whatever money they need to save by trading or non-tendering Vaughn. If he rejects the offer, they'll be in position to gain a draft pick when he signs elsewhere, and they can simply keep Vaughn. This fall will bring one last wave of value rippling out for the team, from the great achievements that were their trade for Vaughn and their work to help Bauers blossom this way. They just need the courage to extend the offer to Bauers, in order to redeem that final voucher. View full article