5 Biggest Moments of 2026 Brewers' Pennant-Winning October So Far

Image courtesy of Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

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Baseball is a beautiful, emotional game. At the same time, every play and outcome is measured and assigned a number. For example, Championship Win Probability Added, or cWPA, determines how much an individual play changes a team’s chances of winning a World Series.

Milwaukee's historic playoff run has been shaped the most by these five moments, as measured by cWPA.

5. Trevor Megill Retires Mookie Betts in Game 1 of NLCS: cWPA 2.24%

In the opening game of the NLCS, Milwaukee muscled two runs across against Tarik Skubal. The Brewers’ bullpen backed Jacob Misiorowski with 11 outs of scoreless relief before handing the ball to Trevor Megill. The closer entered the game in the top of the ninth inning to protect a one-run lead. The first two batters were disposed of on five pitches. Then things got interesting. Kyle Tucker and Josue De Paula both drew walks to bring up the leadoff hitter, Mookie Betts.

Megill bounced a knuckle curve for ball one. The next pitch was a 98-MPH fastball over the heart of the plate. Betts belted it 375 feet to the warning track, where Garrett Mitchell squeezed it for the final out. Milwaukee took Game 1 and moved 2.24% closer to a World Series title.

4. William Contreras's Home Run Against Kris Bubic in Game 2 of NLCS: cWPA 2.45%

Logan Henderson pitched fine over four innings the next day, but nearly threw the game away with two errant throws to first. The Dodgers carried a 4-3 lead into the bottom of the fifth, when left-hander Kris Bubic entered the game for Los Angeles. Brice Turang struck out looking, and William Contreras came to the plate with one out and nobody on.

Bubic's 0-1 pitch was a middle-middle fastball, and Contreras did not miss it. His 436-foot home run tied the game, as the Brewers ultimately won 7-4.

3. Christian Yelich's Go-Ahead Single Off Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2 of NLCS: 3.10% cWPA

The Dodgers held six leads during the NLCS, but Milwaukee quickly overcame the deficits each time. In Game 2, Los Angeles had taken its second lead of the night by the third inning, when Jake Bauers worked a 12-pitch walk to load the bases for Christian Yelich.

Yamamoto hung a breaking ball, and Yelich lined it into center field for a base hit. Hamilton and Turang scored, putting Milwaukee back in front.

2. Jake Bauers's Series-Flipping Homer Against Blake Snell in Game 3 of NLCS: 3.90% cWPA

Blake Snell offered a valuable lesson on adversity prior to Game 3 in Los Angeles. The Dodgers’ left-hander backed up his words and retired 14 consecutive Brewers at one juncture, before a leadoff walk to Andrew Vaughn to start the 7th inning.

For the second consecutive game, Jake Bauers delivered an impressive, marathon at-bat. Snell tried to sneak a fastball past Bauers on the 11th pitch, but Jake the Rake was ready. His 109-MPH laser beam deposited into the bleachers put the Brewers ahead for good—and seemed to sew up the series, even if that wasn't quite the truth.

1. Jackson Chourio's Walkoff Single Against Mason Miller in Game 2 of NLDS: 6.94% cWPA

The bases were loaded with two outs. Milwaukee trailed by a run. Chourio was down to his final strike against (arguably) the best relief pitcher in the world, Mason Miller. This moment carried more tension than any at-bat in Brewers postseason history, with an off-the-charts Championship Leverage Index of 173.47.

Miller’s 40th pitch of the afternoon was a 101-MPH fastball that caught too much of the plate. Chourio ripped a liner past the outstretched glove of Jake Cronenworth and into center. Yelich scored easily, and Sal Frelick narrowly avoided the tag at the plate.

Pandemonium in Milwaukee, and the greatest single moment of the 2026 postseason (so far), by the numbers. Over the next week or two, the team might just top it.