How Should the Brewers Deploy Their Pitching Staff in Game 3?

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After a couple of stressful but exciting NLDS games over the weekend, the Milwaukee Brewers sit just one game away from winning the series against the San Diego Padres. With Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson taking the hill for Milwaukee in the first two games, the team had a crystal-clear plan for those contests, but there was some uncertainty about who would get the ball for Tuesday night’s matchup. As it turns out, it’ll be right-hander Dustin May.

It’s an interesting decision, considering May owns a 5.65 ERA over 10 starts since being acquired from St. Louis at the trade deadline. But clearly, Pat Murphy has a plan in place. So, how should the Brewers utilize their pitching staff in Game 3, as they try to secure a spot in the NLCS?

Dustin May Sets the Tone

Although May worked deep into the game in each of his two regular-season starts against the Padres, he's likely to be on a short leash for this one. The key will be for Murphy to get him out of the game without allowing damage, while giving himself a path from the first pitching change to the final out. That means striking a delicate balance.

The way the first two games played out suggests that Murphy is comfortable leaning heavily on his bullpen. Misiorowski threw just four innings in Game 1, while Henderson made it through five in Game 2 on just 72 pitches. That means Milwaukee has gotten plenty of work from its bullpen already, but it also means its top arms have not been completely overextended.

If May can give the Brewers four solid innings, that should be enough to get the game into the hands of the pitchers Murphy trusts most. If the offense provides an early margin for error and May is pitching well, letting him go through the order twice is fine. Otherwise, getting him out after 13 batters faced or so—after the first half of the second turn, where the Padres lineup suddenly turns from leaning toward right-handed bats to left-handed ones—would be wiser.

Where Do the Lefties Fit?

Let’s say May gets through three innings. What happens then? We could see Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan, or Kyle Harrison make their first appearance of the series. I initially thought Gasser would be the Game 3 starter, and I’m guessing the team's optimal plan now hands him the ball in Game 4 (if needed). But if Tuesday’s game is tight and there's a lead to protect, he could be the bridge through the middle innings.

If the opportunity to seal the series is less clear (or if the matchups just fall right and the skipper prefers to keep Gasser ready for a start on Wednesday), Drohan or Harrison could also give Milwaukee two or three innings before the Brewers turn things over to their late-inning arms. Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill each appeared in each of the first two games, so ideally, Murphy would get through Game 3 without going to all three again. At the very least, they'll be limited to one "up" in this one. You won't see Ashby come in to finish one inning and then pitch the next, as well.

If May can get through three and one of the swingman lefties can give Milwaukee three innings, the Brewers would be in a strong position to finish the game without completely draining the bullpen.

Who Gets the Ball Late?

Let’s say everything goes according to plan and the Brewers get 6+ innings from May and another pitcher. Whom does Murphy go to, if he wants to avoid (say) Uribe for one game?

Antonio Senzatela deserved better than he got in Game 1, and the Brewers are right to like the way he matches up against some of the righty bats at the top of the San Diego lineup. If there's any slack in the rope, though, Game 3 could be Chad Patrick's time to shine. He's been a bit erratic and he's not an ideal fit against any of the Padres' key bats, but Patrick is an important cog in the team's pitching machine. He's capable of giving them length, just as the lefties we expect to see in the middle of the game are. The Padres are running a deep position-player roster and have been aggressive about pinch-hitting to gain the platoon advantage. If they swing from their lefty supporting cast to their right-handed one when some southpaw takes over in the middle innings, Patrick could be Murphy's countermove, against batters locked into their places.

Who Finishes the Game?

If Trevor Megill is available in the ninth, that’s the guy. It’s entirely possible Megill doesn’t pitch in Game 3. It’s also possible he’s used earlier in the game, depending on how things play out. But he's Milwaukee’s closer for a reason. The one thing to keep in mind is that he's seen the top half of the San Diego lineup already in the series. Ideally, Murphy would find a way to work him in against the portions of the Padres corps who haven't seen him since August, or even before that. Realistically, though DL Hall has earned the skipper's trust, Megill, Uribe and Ashby are the candidates to close out a win. In a perfect world, you keep your powder dry for the balance of the series—but if there's a chance to end the series with three more outs, Murphy won't entrust it to a lesser light.

The Brewers have a chance to sweep the Padres tonight and advance to the NLCS. If they’re going to get it done, the pitching staff is going to have to pull its weight. With the way Murphy has managed his pitching staff throughout this series, there are plenty of different ways he can make that happen.