Jackson Chourio Has a Surprising Problem With Runners in Scoring Position

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Jackson Chourio has been one of the Milwaukee Brewers' best hitters in 2026, sitting second behind Jake Bauers in home runs, wRC+ and slugging percentage. Yet despite that impressive overall production, Chourio has managed just 50 RBIs in just shy of 100 games. His frequent appearances at the top of the lineup and Milwaukee's lack of production behind him explain some of that, but there's a more interesting question hiding beneath the RBI total: does Chourio's approach at the plate change when there are runners on base?

His RBI total isn't necessarily evidence of poor hitting, given his frequent spot at the top of the order, but it does raise an interesting question: does Chourio's offensive approach actually change when RBI opportunities arise? Let's take a look at his hitting metrics bit situation:

	Bases Empty	Runners on Base	Runners in Scoring Position
Plate Appearances	252	185	119
Expected BA	0.296	0.205	0.199
Expected Slugging	0.547	0.371	0.289
Expected WOBA	0.388	0.273	0.247
BB%	8.70%	8.10%	10.90%
K%	23.00%	25.40%	25.20%
Hard Hit %	50.90%	41.30%	38.70%

Chourio's expected offensive production drops dramatically when runners are on base. That's not something you would necessarily expect given how comfortable he's been under the spotlight in October, where Chourio has posted a 183 wRC+, but the difference in production raises the possibility that his approach is changing when the situation becomes more important. One of the best ways to investigate that is by looking at his swing decisions.

Swing Decisions
If we use FanGraphs to break down Chourio's swings by situation, a pattern begins to emerge. FanGraphs breaks the plate into three categories. The "heart" is self-explanatory, covering pitches over the middle of the plate. The shadow zone encompasses the ed ges of the strike zone, both inside and outside the ABS zone, while chase covers pitches comfortably outside the strike zone.

Overall, Chourio is swinging more often at pitches over the middle of the plate, but he's also becoming more aggressive in each of the other zones:

Pitchers are giving him less to hit over the heart of the plate and a lot more in the shadow zone, which suggests he's been on the receiving end of some good pitches. That's okay in two strike counts, but those pitches create a lot of weaker contact off Chourio's bat, and are bringing about cheaper outs early in an at bat when Chourio could be trying to gain count leverage and force hitter's into his hitting zone. That's one of the reason's he's been more successful with bases empty, he's waiting on his pitch to hit rather than forcing it against pitches on the edges of the strike zone.

If we break the shadow zone down further, it's even more damning. Fangraphs has been able to separate the shadow zone that's inside vs outside the ABS strike zone, and it's outside the zone that Chourio is swinging at more often:

The jump from a 45% swing rate in the outer shadow zone to around 60% with runners in scoring position is significant, and it appears to be where Chourio is losing some of the patience that makes him such an effective hitter. He's expanding the zone more frequently, and that can lead to weaker contact and less favorable counts.

Overall, he's seeing fewer called strikes, more swinging strikes and fewer first-pitch strikes as the situation becomes more important. That points toward an approach that is becoming more aggressive as the pressure increases. The obvious solution is to retain the discipline that's served him so well with the bases empty, but whether Chourio can do that consistently in RBI situations remains to be seen.

It's easy to forget that Chourio is just 22 years old. Yes, this is his third year in the major leagues, and there may be an expectation that he has a more concrete idea of his approach at the plate by now. At that age, however, he also doesn't have the same experience of dealing with adversity and pressure that comes with a longer career. Those experiences can be just as important in helping a young player manage difficult situations as anything he's doing mechanically at the plate.

The good news is that Chourio has already shown he has an approach that works. With the bases empty, he's patient enough to wait for pitches he can drive, and the results speak for themselves. The challenge now is carrying that same discipline into situations where the temptation to do more is greatest.