Jake McKibbin

Catch Probability - TJStats A great resource for this, it suggests Lara has made every possible catch since July 28th, and the only one he failed was a 5% catch probability effort. He hasn't had a lot of 2-4* opportunities but he's made every one that's come his way

The Wilson memo is beautiful tbf, Jim is so damn creative man

Baseball is baseball, facing the best offense with a wind blowing out against a ground ball pitcher like Peterson, there's always a chance. One could argue it's these exact conditions that the Brewers rotation is most prone to struggling against Anyway hopefully the right handers can get a hold of Peterson in ways they didn't last time out, but it's definitely advantage Brewers with their best performing starters on the mound over the next two games

Bjorn Johnson has been so dialled since the start of August (maybe further, but I only went that far back) I think he's been really difficult to pick up, getting a lot of called strikes, getting ahead a ton by the looks of things and then inducing some deadly chase. I believe he was a 23 or 24 11th round pick out of high school, and the recent results bear monitoring

Matt once challenged us to find a word of the day for our articles, so I do my best!. At first, I wondered if I had made up "inertiatic" although it made sense as an adjective. Glad you enjoyed!

True, but a gold glove in a corner outfield spot is very different to an above-average/plus defender in center field. On top of that, Frelick's lack of any real game time in CF is a fairly solid indicator the Brewers don't see him as that level of a defender. He's a good corner OF, in a position where some of the competition is a little iffy. Ian Happ has won a ton of LF gold gloves because of that, so while Frelick is a good corner OF, he doesn't compare well to Mitchell in that facet of the game

Image courtesy of Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images Jackson Chourio has been one of the Milwaukee Brewers' best hitters in 2026, sitting second behind Jake Bauers in home runs, wRC+ and slugging percentage. Yet despite that impressive overall production, Chourio has managed just 50 RBIs in just shy of 100 games. His frequent appearances at the top of the lineup and Milwaukee's lack of production behind him explain some of that, but there's a more interesting question hiding beneath the RBI total: does Chourio's approach at the plate change when there are runners on base? His RBI total isn't necessarily evidence of poor hitting, given his frequent spot at the top of the order, but it does raise an interesting question: does Chourio's offensive approach actually change when RBI opportunities arise? Let's take a look at his hitting metrics bit situation: Bases Empty Runners on Base Runners in Scoring Position Plate Appearances 252 185 119 Expected BA 0.296 0.205 0.199 Expected Slugging 0.547 0.371 0.289 Expected WOBA 0.388 0.273 0.247 BB% 8.70% 8.10% 10.90% K% 23.00% 25.40% 25.20% Hard Hit % 50.90% 41.30% 38.70% Chourio's expected offensive production drops dramatically when runners are on base. That's not something you would necessarily expect given how comfortable he's been under the spotlight in October, where Chourio has posted a 183 wRC+, but the difference in production raises the possibility that his approach is changing when the situation becomes more important. One of the best ways to investigate that is by looking at his swing decisions. Swing Decisions If we use FanGraphs to break down Chourio's swings by situation, a pattern begins to emerge. FanGraphs breaks the plate into three categories. The "heart" is self-explanatory, covering pitches over the middle of the plate. The shadow zone encompasses the ed ges of the strike zone, both inside and outside the ABS zone, while chase covers pitches comfortably outside the strike zone. Overall, Chourio is swinging more often at pitches over the middle of the plate, but he's also becoming more aggressive in each of the other zones: Pitchers are giving him less to hit over the heart of the plate and a lot more in the shadow zone, which suggests he's been on the receiving end of some good pitches. That's okay in two strike counts, but those pitches create a lot of weaker contact off Chourio's bat, and are bringing about cheaper outs early in an at bat when Chourio could be trying to gain count leverage and force hitter's into his hitting zone. That's one of the reason's he's been more successful with bases empty, he's waiting on his pitch to hit rather than forcing it against pitches on the edges of the strike zone. If we break the shadow zone down further, it's even more damning. Fangraphs has been able to separate the shadow zone that's inside vs outside the ABS strike zone, and it's outside the zone that Chourio is swinging at more often: The jump from a 45% swing rate in the outer shadow zone to around 60% with runners in scoring position is significant, and it appears to be where Chourio is losing some of the patience that makes him such an effective hitter. He's expanding the zone more frequently, and that can lead to weaker contact and less favorable counts. Overall, he's seeing fewer called strikes, more swinging strikes and fewer first-pitch strikes as the situation becomes more important. That points toward an approach that is becoming more aggressive as the pressure increases. The obvious solution is to retain the discipline that's served him so well with the bases empty, but whether Chourio can do that consistently in RBI situations remains to be seen. It's easy to forget that Chourio is just 22 years old. Yes, this is his third year in the major leagues, and there may be an expectation that he has a more concrete idea of his approach at the plate by now. At that age, however, he also doesn't have the same experience of dealing with adversity and pressure that comes with a longer career. Those experiences can be just as important in helping a young player manage difficult situations as anything he's doing mechanically at the plate. The good news is that Chourio has already shown he has an approach that works. With the bases empty, he's patient enough to wait for pitches he can drive, and the results speak for themselves. The challenge now is carrying that same discipline into situations where the temptation to do more is greatest. View full article

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect While there have been some notable sparks on the offensive side of the ledger, questions remain for this Brewers team. Milwaukee has the best record in baseball and should earn a first-round playoff bye. That has plenty of people looking ahead to October, but looking ahead to October always gets folks wondering whether history could repeat itself with another early postseason exit fueled by an offense that goes cold at the worst possible time. The opportunity to trade for reinforcements has come and gone, and, to be honest, there wasn't a whole lot of offensive help available at the deadline in the first place. The lineup has shown more life of late, but some additional thump (even in the form of a pinch-hitting option) could be valuable down the stretch and into October. With the trade market closed, it's time to look within the organization. Coming into the season, there were high hopes that some of the Brewers' infield prospects could eventually provide more power. Brock Wilken, in particular, put together the best half-season of his career last year at Double-A Biloxi, but he's struggled to consistently make contact since reaching Triple-A, frequently finding himself in pitcher-friendly counts. Jett Williams is another name whom many expected to feature this season, but some struggles and untimely injuries have kept him down. The latter has even put his season in jeopardy. While these two may have been front-runners entering the season, they're by no means the only potential contributors in what remains a stacked farm system. Two other bat-first options could contribute offensively down the stretch. Luke Adams Luke Adams is expected to return shortly, and his inertiatic approach at the plate continues to not just survive, but thrive as he rises through the levels. Pairing the third-lowest in-zone swing rate in Triple-A this season with an in-zone contact rate of 87.6% is a great place to begin. Adams knows what he wants in the at-bat and is willing to wait for it. When he gets it, he's been able to capitalize. Pairing strong exit velocities with a sky-high walk rate, a (somehow) reasonable strikeout rate, and the barrel control to elevate consistently has led to Adams being one of the strangest and most successful hitters in Triple-A this season. When he does swing, the contact quality has been strong, and he addresses another need the Brewers may have: he can crush left-handers. While Adams has performed admirably regardless of platoon matchup, his 1.097 OPS against southpaws stands out for a Brewers team that ranks 19th with a 95 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this year. Certain players (like Brice Turang, David Hamilton and Christian Yelich) have struggled against same-sided pitching, and Adams provides more versatility as a pinch-hit bat than someone like Gary Sánchez. Adams can play a capable third base, and that's where his value to this roster as a pinch-hitter would come into the fold. If he can hit the ground running to close out August, he may have a route to some playing time when rosters expand in September, especially if the Brewers are content with the versatility they have in their current 13-man position player corps. Blake Burke This is entirely predicated on one of two things happening: Yelich's recent struggles worsen, or either Yelich or Jake Bauers suffers an injury down the stretch. Outside of that, Burke would be a pinch-hitting option with extraordinary power, but the limited versatility would hurt his chances in September, and he would need those at-bats to push for an opportunity on a postseason roster. But let's eschew reason for a short second and look closer. Burke's one weakness is his swing decisions. He chases too much, but his in-zone contact rates are above-average; that's almost unheard-of for a hitter with Burke's sheer thump. The postseason creates tension, and with tension come mistake pitches. If put in a position with a mistake, there might not be many hitters in the Brewers organization more likely to crush that pitch. The barrel rate, hard-hit rate and maximum exit velocities tell a story. If you hang it, Burke will bang it. In a situation where the Brewers want a bat in a pinch-hitting situation to make a difference, Burke could present the perfect option. He showed throughout college how comfortable he is under the bright lights in the biggest moments, and while he's raw, there's a world where this gamble makes sense for the Brewers. Anyone else? I'm not sure about going much further down the list when it comes to potential impact players. Akil Baddoo has shown some lively contact in Nashville and probably would have played with the Brewers at some point this year, if not for some untimely injuries. That being said, he also looks like a Quadruple-A player, with passable contact numbers and plate discipline in Triple-A but an inability to make enough contact at the highest level to access the power that drives his profile. Bo Naylor has been more selective in the strike zone since joining the Brewers, adopting a more all-fields approach and reducing his strikeout rate in Triple-A. That being said, he would be the third catcher on the roster, behind both Sánchez and William Contreras. There are also service-time considerations that may impact a potential call-up. For those looking toward Double-A Biloxi, it's worth noting that Jesús Made has run into an inevitable adjustment period in August, hitting .200/.291/.280 while striking out more than has been typical for him this season. He's not a player the Brewers would want to rush under the best of circumstances, and it seems unlikely they would do so under these circumstances. Andrew Fischer is another name on many tongues, but he seems to be getting found out a little at Double-A. Typically, players see more intensive game planning as they move through the levels, and Fischer had some trouble with spin earlier in the season that might be rearing its head again now. He's slashing .136/.289/.348 this month with a 37% strikeout rate, and he'll have some adjustments to work through before he can find consistent production at Triple-A and above. All in all, the most likely boost is Adams. He's shown strong production throughout the year, despite a very quirky profile, and he can address the Brewers' struggles against left-handed pitching somewhat from the bench. He can also add to the second- and third-base options, with Joey Ortiz capable of handling second to make room for an all-right-handed infield on occasion. That gives the Brewers some maneuverability when it comes to finding at-bats. Burke is a different proposition. He lacks some of the positional coverage Adams possesses, while also having less time to prove himself at Triple-A and force his way into the Brewers' thoughts. That's not to say he can't succeed—his raw power is there for all to see—and it could be particularly effective over a small sample size. Still, barring an injury, we probably won't see him this season. Are there any other names you would consider for the expanded rosters? Anyone who might possess some of the power the Brewers so desperately crave right now? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Do you think "not horrible" is severely under-stating this Harold? While you could argue Mitchell, for all his athleticism, is a little stiff at times, he's been really good out there especially since June onwards when the fear of an impact injury has slowly dissipated. Lara is a great center fielder, but he's also never dealt with the third level of stadiums before which does impact a players reads and takes some getting used to. For now, it seems clear the Brewers value Mitchell's CF defense higher than Lara's, and we should be judging it on the here and now, not for future occasions. @wiguy94is right, for example the highlight reel catches over the weekend were all 1* catches More to the point, there's been absolutely nothing to suggest, in any way, that Frelick is a better defensive outfielder than Garrett Mitchell. When healthy, Mitchell has far better range and a far better arm than Frelick, it's not close Also Mitchell has only failed to snag one play of 4* difficulty or below since May 10th. It was an error off Thomas Pannone, so while he hasn't made a 5* grab, he's been remarkably effect at anything from 25-75% catch probability This one in particular vs the Padres was a 30% probability, just an awesome grab Garrett Mitchell's incredible game-saving catch | Baseball Savant Videos | baseballsavant.com Meanwhile in 2025 (to help Frelick here with health), Sal made 10/45 grabs from 2*-4* difficulty. Sal is a solid, above average outfielder. He is not Garrett Mitchell

Two fun things to share. First of all, Tyson Hardin's sweeper was almost completely untouchable. 8 whiffs on 9 swings, and the 4S/Cutter are so tough to square up. A great outing in a shorter stint that's well deserved given his peripherals this season Secondly, another Sproat start where the cutter has been abolished. The command graded out excellently here (Pitch profiler's ProPitching + is an amalgam of the stuff+ you see in the first column and location + which isn't shown. Given his prostuff+ is lower than the pitching + on his fastballs, by a long way, the model really rated how he commanded the fastball/sinker On a less positive note, Jared Koenig is no longer looking remotely like Jared Koenig. Velocity is down across the board and his shapes won't cut it at 92 mph

Really hoping the DSL game feed is accurate (it's not) as this would be hilarious

I would love to see an aerial side by side of Sal Frelick's 87 mph, 320 ft home run contrasted with Blake Burkes 11 mph, 437 ft one

There is an element of misfortune here from Hardin. Stuff wise, he should struggle more to get past left handers, but his .410 BABIP against right handers has given him reverse splits. a FIP of 3.58 vs an ERA of 5.14 highlights that further. His four-seam also had a 50% whiff rate yesterday. there's some command improvements (command over control) to really maximise his arsenal, but the numbers suggest he's still pitching well Here are his numbers on the year: