Jake McKibbin
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Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Garrett Mitchell has been working all season to get his high fastball problem under control, but it's cost him in some other areas previously considered strong points. He was making some real strides with this goal, as you can see in the graph below, with a rolling swing-and-miss rate that reached league average on May 19. The problem was, he was still hitting too many ground balls and just not tapping into the benefits that limiting his whiffs should have brought about for a player of his capabilities. Through that May 19 date, Mitchell had a 101 RC+, so he was just about a league-average hitter, but his overall slash line was propped up with walks as he hit .224/.347/.352. Since that date, despite his whiff rate climbing, Mitchell has slashed .308/.366/.569 for a 159 wRC+, and a strikeout rate that's actually lower than his first month and a half. How is that happening? The theory was always that if Mitchell could survive against the high fastball, the results could be remarkable. Mitchell knew this. Opponents knew this. It's been a real focus for him this year, and he was really beginning to get on top of it in May. If we break down his whiff rates by month against each pitch type, we can see some real progress, in May against hard pitches: That's bounced back up in June, but not entirely in the way you might think. Throughout the first two months of the season, Mitchell was demonstrating a lot of patience at the plate. He had an 11.4% walk rate, with a league average swing rate at pitches inside the strike zone and exceptional command of the zone, in the form of a very low chase rate. It prevented his whiff rate (and his strikeouts) from ballooning to genuinely untenable proportions. In June however, he's flipped a switch and is taking off. Mitchell has eschewed plate discipline for earlier swings and more aggressive intent, and the results have been excellent. TJstats has a model that can showcase the two in percentile form, side by side: By taking fewer early strikes in the count and swinging more aggressively, Mitchell is actually striking out a lot less at only 25% of the time this month. The one caveat to this is the reduced movement on pitches in both Colorado and Las Vegas. That will have helped Mitchell square up the ball a little more often, and perhaps the offensive environment fed into his desire to swing a little more. That being said, this is a noticeable change, and it seems intentional when we see how exactly he's doing it. Mitchell's bread and butter is that he crushes breaking balls in the zone. Murders them. He's never swung at fewer than 43% of breaking balls in his career, but that changed in the first few months of 2026. He was swinging less, and he wasn't making the type of contact on those mistake pitches that he's known for in Milwaukee—that is, of course, until June came around: Mitchell was swinging at less than 35% of breaking balls this season through May, but has been firing off at almost 70% of them so far in June. That's bringing about more chase, but also allowing him to square up those pitches that are inside the strike zone. He's been unlucky in spots, but the process has looked strong. Then, Tuesday night, he left nothing to chance. On a hanging slider from Guardians reliever Hunter Gaddis, he crushed a line-drive home run to right field, restoring the Brewers' lead just one half-inning after they'd lost it. He's gone through an adjustment period during which he gave away some of his authoritative contact on breaking stuff, but boy, is it ever back. More important, however, is how Mitchell has handled fastballs. Yes, he's still swinging and missing more than you would like, but when pitchers are missing that high fastball, he's punishing them for it. Mitchell's expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .422 against fastballs would mark the highest of his career in any month in which he faced over 50 pitches, and he's doing it by crushing line drives on anything on the middle or inner thirds. He still struggles up and away from him, but it marks a big transformation in that he's reduced the size of the hole in his swing from the entire top of the strike zone to just one area. Here are his whiff zones against fastballs so far in June: There's still room for improvement, as Mitchell is really struggling against a fastball up and away. What he's also doing, however, is crushing anything if you drop slightly lower down in the zone, especially against right-handed pitchers. His average exit velocity against fastballs by zone is impressive against opposite-handed pitchers in June: There could be an argument to platoon Mitchell occasionally on this basis, especially against left-handers with strong fastballs. He's not doing the same level of damage against southpaws, and that bears noting. We can see it in his swing timing, as well. So far in June (the orange line below), Mitchell is more on time, perhaps even occasionally early for the first time, on fastballs, while being more lined up with the middle of the bat. Overall, Mitchell appears to be slowly shedding some of the concerns he brought into the season. He seems less concerned with how his body holds up in the outfield defensively. He might be beginning to worry less about his strikeout rate, and being more aggressive early in counts. Relaxation and comfort are massive in any sport, and it's something Mitchell seems to be taking full advantage of right now. He still has adjustments to make. He'd probably like to be chasing a little bit less than he is at present, and there's still a lot of swing-and-miss to suggest the strikeout rates are a bit of a mirage for now. Most adjustments come from finding an extreme change and dialling that back, and Mitchell has definitely ventured outside of his early-season comfort zone to test the boundaries of what he's capable of. He's beginning to find who he is at the plate, and it might result in some cat-and-mouse with his swing rates as pitchers adjust throughout a season with where and how they pitch him. The good news is, Mitchell seems equally capable of adjusting with them. With a manageable strikeout rate, and actually elevating his hard contact, this version of Garrett Mitchell looks like a force to be reckoned with. View full article
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Garrett Mitchell's Seesaw of Adjustments Tipped at Just the Right Time
Jake McKibbin posted an article in Brewers
Garrett Mitchell has been working all season to get his high fastball problem under control, but it's cost him in some other areas previously considered strong points. He was making some real strides with this goal, as you can see in the graph below, with a rolling swing-and-miss rate that reached league average on May 19. The problem was, he was still hitting too many ground balls and just not tapping into the benefits that limiting his whiffs should have brought about for a player of his capabilities. Through that May 19 date, Mitchell had a 101 RC+, so he was just about a league-average hitter, but his overall slash line was propped up with walks as he hit .224/.347/.352. Since that date, despite his whiff rate climbing, Mitchell has slashed .308/.366/.569 for a 159 wRC+, and a strikeout rate that's actually lower than his first month and a half. How is that happening? The theory was always that if Mitchell could survive against the high fastball, the results could be remarkable. Mitchell knew this. Opponents knew this. It's been a real focus for him this year, and he was really beginning to get on top of it in May. If we break down his whiff rates by month against each pitch type, we can see some real progress, in May against hard pitches: That's bounced back up in June, but not entirely in the way you might think. Throughout the first two months of the season, Mitchell was demonstrating a lot of patience at the plate. He had an 11.4% walk rate, with a league average swing rate at pitches inside the strike zone and exceptional command of the zone, in the form of a very low chase rate. It prevented his whiff rate (and his strikeouts) from ballooning to genuinely untenable proportions. In June however, he's flipped a switch and is taking off. Mitchell has eschewed plate discipline for earlier swings and more aggressive intent, and the results have been excellent. TJstats has a model that can showcase the two in percentile form, side by side: By taking fewer early strikes in the count and swinging more aggressively, Mitchell is actually striking out a lot less at only 25% of the time this month. The one caveat to this is the reduced movement on pitches in both Colorado and Las Vegas. That will have helped Mitchell square up the ball a little more often, and perhaps the offensive environment fed into his desire to swing a little more. That being said, this is a noticeable change, and it seems intentional when we see how exactly he's doing it. Mitchell's bread and butter is that he crushes breaking balls in the zone. Murders them. He's never swung at fewer than 43% of breaking balls in his career, but that changed in the first few months of 2026. He was swinging less, and he wasn't making the type of contact on those mistake pitches that he's known for in Milwaukee—that is, of course, until June came around: Mitchell was swinging at less than 35% of breaking balls this season through May, but has been firing off at almost 70% of them so far in June. That's bringing about more chase, but also allowing him to square up those pitches that are inside the strike zone. He's been unlucky in spots, but the process has looked strong. Then, Tuesday night, he left nothing to chance. On a hanging slider from Guardians reliever Hunter Gaddis, he crushed a line-drive home run to right field, restoring the Brewers' lead just one half-inning after they'd lost it. He's gone through an adjustment period during which he gave away some of his authoritative contact on breaking stuff, but boy, is it ever back. More important, however, is how Mitchell has handled fastballs. Yes, he's still swinging and missing more than you would like, but when pitchers are missing that high fastball, he's punishing them for it. Mitchell's expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .422 against fastballs would mark the highest of his career in any month in which he faced over 50 pitches, and he's doing it by crushing line drives on anything on the middle or inner thirds. He still struggles up and away from him, but it marks a big transformation in that he's reduced the size of the hole in his swing from the entire top of the strike zone to just one area. Here are his whiff zones against fastballs so far in June: There's still room for improvement, as Mitchell is really struggling against a fastball up and away. What he's also doing, however, is crushing anything if you drop slightly lower down in the zone, especially against right-handed pitchers. His average exit velocity against fastballs by zone is impressive against opposite-handed pitchers in June: There could be an argument to platoon Mitchell occasionally on this basis, especially against left-handers with strong fastballs. He's not doing the same level of damage against southpaws, and that bears noting. We can see it in his swing timing, as well. So far in June (the orange line below), Mitchell is more on time, perhaps even occasionally early for the first time, on fastballs, while being more lined up with the middle of the bat. Overall, Mitchell appears to be slowly shedding some of the concerns he brought into the season. He seems less concerned with how his body holds up in the outfield defensively. He might be beginning to worry less about his strikeout rate, and being more aggressive early in counts. Relaxation and comfort are massive in any sport, and it's something Mitchell seems to be taking full advantage of right now. He still has adjustments to make. He'd probably like to be chasing a little bit less than he is at present, and there's still a lot of swing-and-miss to suggest the strikeout rates are a bit of a mirage for now. Most adjustments come from finding an extreme change and dialling that back, and Mitchell has definitely ventured outside of his early-season comfort zone to test the boundaries of what he's capable of. He's beginning to find who he is at the plate, and it might result in some cat-and-mouse with his swing rates as pitchers adjust throughout a season with where and how they pitch him. The good news is, Mitchell seems equally capable of adjusting with them. With a manageable strikeout rate, and actually elevating his hard contact, this version of Garrett Mitchell looks like a force to be reckoned with. -
Wed. 6/10: Double the Action for T-Rats & Shuckers
Jake McKibbin replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Absolutely. We had some confirmation from the Brewers Minor League hitting coordinator that Made is really working on staying on the back leg and elevating the ball more, and it's really the only hole in his profile. His zone contact rate is above 90% apparently, he's chasing a little more than one would like in Double A but also, he's 19 and that's a big jump in stuff from High A. The Brewers org seems to think it's a very fixable issue to tap into more game power and will come, it's just being worked through at the moment -
Running 2026 MLB Draft Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to wiguy94's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Haha let's not go down that road, Spencer still cries over Chris Levonas -
Running 2026 MLB Draft Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to wiguy94's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Absolutely! I think from memory he'd grown up dreaming of going to Oklahoma and being a sooner, so really got the best of both worlds there -
Honestly his floor is higher. The defense is phenomenal, he's as competitive and comfortable as Sal with treating his body like a malleable instrument, but he's faster and better reads to boot. He's a premium CF whereas Sal is serviceable, and that's noteworthy We've seen how quickly PCA has accumulated WAR at times even when he's not hitting. Now it's just whether Lara can find a way to surpass Sals bar and really own the outfield spot as an everyday regular
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Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images There are two things this should be prefaced with. One is that a lot of information on Luis Lara (and other top prospects) can be gleaned from listening to Spencer Michaelis wax lyrical each week on the Brewer Fanatic pod. Secondly, a massive congratulations to the young man for securing his future and defying a lot of stereotypes around his size and player archetype. Now, let's ask: why did the Brewers do this, and what future do they envision for him? Luis Lara is a phenomenal defender. Otherworldly. I'm not saying he's Pete Crow-Armstrong, because Crow-Armstrong is the greatest range monster we've seen in the outfield for a very long time, and possibly ever. That being said, Lara is close to that level of outfield coverage, combining exceptional jumps and reads with speed and great hands to flag down fly balls and line drives. This catch, in particular, shouldn't be marred simply because there's a position player on the mound: He currently holds a Minor League Gold Glove for his outfield prowess from last season, and there aren't really any faults. His arm strength has really improved over the past few years. He recorded 10 outfield assists in 2025 with the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers, and has three so far this season with Nashville. In short (a word Lara has been tagged with many times in his young career), this is the kind of defense the Brewers crave in their outfield mix, especially with the fly ball configuration of their pitching staff this season. The other facet of his game in which Lara has greatly excelled is his control of the strike zone—especially his contact rates. Lara has come a long way with his chase rates, which used to be a weakness, and is now above-average in that category, with some of the best bat-to-ball skills in Triple A. TJStats has a nice graphic showing his percentiles this season with the bat: He's a patient hitter who's walked more than he's struck out. He's consistently put the ball in play and has started pulling the ball in the air. All of those are really positive things, and perhaps the biggest is the hard-hit rate, which is now in the 55th percentile. Lara is just 5-foot-7, and while he's been young for nearly every level he's passed through on his journey, the ability to impact the ball has been lacking at those stages. This is the first season in which Lara's isolated power number (or the difference between his batting average and slugging) has been over .090 since he left the DSL. One thing we know from watching Sal Frelick and Luis Rengifo this year is that simply making contact is not enough in the big leagues. So this development is important, but it does come with a caveat: These are Lara's splits hitting as a lefty against right-handed pitching, and vice-versa. It seems like he's been a very different hitter when facing each side of the platoon. Against righties, Lara is battling and grinding his at-bats, taking his walks and getting on base, but he's not providing much—if any—thump. Contrast that with his performance against left-handers, and there's a noticeable difference. He swings more, he's more aggressive, and he's been barrelling up baseballs regularly. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) tells the story, and it's important to pay attention to this. What it means is that Lara's everyday opportunity might need to wait a little longer, until he can handle right-handers with a little more panache. The majority of pitchers are right-handed, and simply being patient and hoping to walk or put a weakly hit ball in play against big league-caliber command and stuff won't cut it over the long term. Lara is, at present, an incredibly effective defensive fourth outfielder. He's also a good candidate for that role as a pinch-hitter against left-handers, something Sal Frelick can benefit from. Brandon Lockridge also fills this role well, however, and was beginning to show signs of his own adaptation prior to his calamitous collision with the concrete down the left-field line. He's due back sometime in the next few weeks, should his rehab stint go well. The Brewers will be hoping for big things from Lara. He's a 21-year-old playing in Triple A, and he's already shown some progress in the exit velocity department. This contract was arranged under the premise that they think more is to come, and Lara appears to be a very fast learner. He's shown that in the first half of the season, with improving launch angles. His xwOBA has steadily ticked up this year. He'll need to keep progressing if he wants to become a regular, and like Cooper Pratt, that may mean a little more seasoning for now. If all goes according to plan, he'll be worth the wait. View full article
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There are two things this should be prefaced with. One is that a lot of information on Luis Lara (and other top prospects) can be gleaned from listening to Spencer Michaelis wax lyrical each week on the Brewer Fanatic pod. Secondly, a massive congratulations to the young man for securing his future and defying a lot of stereotypes around his size and player archetype. Now, let's ask: why did the Brewers do this, and what future do they envision for him? Luis Lara is a phenomenal defender. Otherworldly. I'm not saying he's Pete Crow-Armstrong, because Crow-Armstrong is the greatest range monster we've seen in the outfield for a very long time, and possibly ever. That being said, Lara is close to that level of outfield coverage, combining exceptional jumps and reads with speed and great hands to flag down fly balls and line drives. This catch, in particular, shouldn't be marred simply because there's a position player on the mound: He currently holds a Minor League Gold Glove for his outfield prowess from last season, and there aren't really any faults. His arm strength has really improved over the past few years. He recorded 10 outfield assists in 2025 with the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers, and has three so far this season with Nashville. In short (a word Lara has been tagged with many times in his young career), this is the kind of defense the Brewers crave in their outfield mix, especially with the fly ball configuration of their pitching staff this season. The other facet of his game in which Lara has greatly excelled is his control of the strike zone—especially his contact rates. Lara has come a long way with his chase rates, which used to be a weakness, and is now above-average in that category, with some of the best bat-to-ball skills in Triple A. TJStats has a nice graphic showing his percentiles this season with the bat: He's a patient hitter who's walked more than he's struck out. He's consistently put the ball in play and has started pulling the ball in the air. All of those are really positive things, and perhaps the biggest is the hard-hit rate, which is now in the 55th percentile. Lara is just 5-foot-7, and while he's been young for nearly every level he's passed through on his journey, the ability to impact the ball has been lacking at those stages. This is the first season in which Lara's isolated power number (or the difference between his batting average and slugging) has been over .090 since he left the DSL. One thing we know from watching Sal Frelick and Luis Rengifo this year is that simply making contact is not enough in the big leagues. So this development is important, but it does come with a caveat: These are Lara's splits hitting as a lefty against right-handed pitching, and vice-versa. It seems like he's been a very different hitter when facing each side of the platoon. Against righties, Lara is battling and grinding his at-bats, taking his walks and getting on base, but he's not providing much—if any—thump. Contrast that with his performance against left-handers, and there's a noticeable difference. He swings more, he's more aggressive, and he's been barrelling up baseballs regularly. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) tells the story, and it's important to pay attention to this. What it means is that Lara's everyday opportunity might need to wait a little longer, until he can handle right-handers with a little more panache. The majority of pitchers are right-handed, and simply being patient and hoping to walk or put a weakly hit ball in play against big league-caliber command and stuff won't cut it over the long term. Lara is, at present, an incredibly effective defensive fourth outfielder. He's also a good candidate for that role as a pinch-hitter against left-handers, something Sal Frelick can benefit from. Brandon Lockridge also fills this role well, however, and was beginning to show signs of his own adaptation prior to his calamitous collision with the concrete down the left-field line. He's due back sometime in the next few weeks, should his rehab stint go well. The Brewers will be hoping for big things from Lara. He's a 21-year-old playing in Triple A, and he's already shown some progress in the exit velocity department. This contract was arranged under the premise that they think more is to come, and Lara appears to be a very fast learner. He's shown that in the first half of the season, with improving launch angles. His xwOBA has steadily ticked up this year. He'll need to keep progressing if he wants to become a regular, and like Cooper Pratt, that may mean a little more seasoning for now. If all goes according to plan, he'll be worth the wait.
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It'll be interesting to see how the Coors altitude affects these games. The Brewers had just adjusted to hitting with less movement on most pitches, and now you're back at sea level, they'll have to revert to type. Can Garrett Mitchell still hit the ball in the air? We'll see! Hopefully a fun week of baseball against two pretty fun offenses
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Could Darrien Miller be on the trade block after a hot start Harold?
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Running 2026 MLB Draft Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to wiguy94's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
What's the general consensus on Will Brick, the catcher out of Christian Brother HS? I can see the Brewers picking up some reinforcements behind the plate, and he seems to have a solid floor with enough upside to make it intriguing in round two or so? -
I'm not saying they'd be a step down, but I don't think they'd be an upgrade and with perhaps another month or two to really get firing in an environment conducive to that development, when they do come up they'll be able to hit the ground running and make an impact rather than merely replicating Rengifos production

