Logan Henderson vs. The Dodgers: Round 3

Image courtesy of Jon Endow-Imagn Images

Brewers Video

Despite a massive Game 1 win Sunday night, the Milwaukee Brewers have no time to celebrate. With Game 2 on deck, the Los Angeles Dodgers will look to even the series before heading home, putting plenty of pressure on Brewers starting pitcher Logan Henderson. The 24-year-old right-hander was sensational throughout the regular season, and that success has carried over into October. Henderson allowed just one run in five innings in Game 2 of the NLDS against the San Diego Padres, helping Milwaukee continue its postseason run. However, Monday’s matchup presents a much different challenge against a Dodgers lineup that can punish even the smallest mistakes.

Fortunately for the Brewers, Henderson has already shown he can handle them. This will mark the third time that he's faced Los Angeles this season, and he’s won both of the previous matchups. Now, with the stakes higher than ever, he’ll look to keep that trend going.

Henderson’s first showdown with the defending champions came on May 22, in just his fifth major-league start of the season. Despite his limited experience, he looked quite comfortable against (arguably) baseball’s most dangerous lineup. The right-hander tossed five scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and three walks while striking out seven. Los Angeles struggled to make consistent contact, and Henderson kept the Dodgers off balance throughout his outing. He generated 15 whiffs on just 85 pitches, while doing an excellent job of limiting hard contact. For a young pitcher still establishing himself in the big leagues, it was an impressive performance against a lineup loaded with proven hitters.

Of course, having success against a team once is one thing. Repeating that performance against the same opponent—particularly one with the talent and offensive depth of the Dodgers—is an entirely different challenge. Henderson passed that test the second time around.

Fast-forward about three months to August 16, when the Brewers and Dodgers met again in Los Angeles. Henderson took the mound in the fourth and final game of the series, facing a lineup that had already seen him earlier in the season. The results were just as impressive. Henderson delivered seven innings of one-run ball, surrendering only three hits and one walk while striking out six. He once again generated 15 whiffs, with nine coming on his changeup, and prevented the Dodgers from consistently squaring up his pitches.

It was another outstanding performance against a lineup that rarely makes life easy for opposing pitchers. Henderson showed that his first outing against Los Angeles wasn’t a fluke, keeping the Dodgers guessing for seven innings. Now, he’ll attempt to accomplish something even more difficult by shutting them down for a third time. And with a trip to the World Series on the line, the timing couldn’t be much bigger.

If Henderson wants to continue his dominance against the Dodgers, the first step is relatively simple: keep leaning on his changeup. The pitch has been his best weapon throughout the season, and his previous matchups with Los Angeles offer plenty of evidence that it can give the Dodgers problems. Henderson threw his changeup 23 times across 85 pitches in his first meeting with the Dodgers. That number increased to 34 of his 93 pitches in the August matchup. There’s little reason to stray from that approach now. The changeup has been an important part of Henderson’s success all year, and he’ll need it to be effective again if he hopes to navigate the Dodgers’ lineup multiple times.

However, the pitch mix is only part of the equation. Henderson’s four-seam fastball location will be just as important in determining how successful he can be. As much as the Dodgers have struggled with Henderson, seven of the 12 four-seamers they’ve put in play across their two matchup have left the bat at 95 miles per hour or harder. He’s still managed to deliver a pair of excellent outings, but the underlying contact numbers suggest there could be some trouble if he leaves too many fastballs over the heart of the plate. Fortunately for Henderson, many of those balls were hit on the ground. Still, relying on the Dodgers to keep hitting hard fastballs into the ground isn’t a sustainable strategy. A lineup with that much power can turn a few misplaced pitches into a very different ballgame, especially in October.

Taking a 2-0 lead into the series would put the Brewers in an excellent position as they head to Los Angeles. They’d have put the Dodgers on the brink of elimination, needing only two more wins to advance to the World Series. Losing, however, would change the complexion of the series. Instead of putting the Dodgers in a difficult position, Milwaukee would head west tied at one game apiece, effectively turning the matchup into a best-of-five series and handing the Dodgers home-field advantage.

Jacob Misiorowski lasted only 4 1/3 innings in Game 1 last night, meaning Milwaukee’s bullpen has already been called upon early in the series. If the Brewers want to maintain their advantage, they need Henderson to provide some length and keep their relievers from being overworked. Quality innings will be just as important as quantity. Milwaukee can’t afford to let the Dodgers build an early lead, but they also need Henderson to work efficiently enough to get deep into the game.

The good news is that he’s already shown he can do exactly that against Los Angeles. Of course, postseason baseball brings a different level of pressure, and the Dodgers will have made adjustments. The young right-hander will need to make his own adjustments in response. If he can keep his changeup effective, locate his fastball, and work deep into the game, Milwaukee will have a real opportunity to take a commanding series lead.