The Finishing Kick: Jacob Misiorowski Gets a Chance to Finish Historic Season in Style

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Down the stretch of this season, the Brewers were extremely careful with Jacob Misiorowski. They gave him extra rest between starts; they throttled back on his pitch counts. In his last three starts of the regular campaign, he threw 82, 44 and 68 pitches, respectively. The middle game in that set came on September 20 in Baltimore, when Misiorowski pitched on four days' rest but only threw three innings, allowing one hit and striking out four. They ramped him down so they could ramp him back up, if needed, in the playoffs.

That ramp-up hasn't really happened, though. Misiorowski's pitch counts did climb a bit in his starts in the NLDS (88) and NLCS (94), but Pat Murphy has had chances to stretch his ace a bit, and he's passed them up. In no appearance, so far, has Misiorowski pitched to a 20th batter. Thanks to the Brewers' rapid dispatch of the Dodgers, Misiorowski also hasn't worked on fewer than five days' rest in any of his starts this month. He's had his trusty home mound on which to blast off and land, with his signature, high-extension delivery. He's had the luxury of rest, and the protection of a quick hook. All that might need to change Wednesday night.

The Rays' backs are still against the wall. They won Game 4 with a two-run 12th-inning rally, but they used all of the appealing candidates for a Game 5 start (and all of their top relief arms) in the process. The Brewers have a clear advantage in this game, and a big one in the series, even now. All Game 4 really did was provide a stage on which Misiorowski can deliver an encore at the end of his bravura season. It's too early to put any more pressure on this thing than that. If the Brewers do lose in Game 5, they'll simply gain the opportunity to win their first World Series at home, in front of a roaring crowd in Milwaukee. On the other hand, every win by the Rays will wind the spring tighter—and the depth of the Brewers pitching staff is starting to wear thin.

In Game 5, it's important that Murphy let the leash out a bit, and that Misiorowski rediscover a modicum of the sharpness that has ebbed away over the last month and change. He hasn't been quite the same lately, in ways that are hard to capture at first, but become evident once you put a few pieces together. He's tired. The utterly unprecedented torrents of energy he used to generate power and command on his fastball in the middle of this season aren't quite there, anymore. He's lost just a hair, in three ways. First, his actual velocity is down about 1 mile per hour from his best readings in June and July. We can think of that, in effect, as fatigue showing up in his arm speed.

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He's also lost about an inch and a half of extension toward the plate, on average, which is why the gap between his actual and perceived velocity readings are closing a bit. That's fatigue in his legs; it's incredibly difficult to get as far down the mound as he did in the middle of this year, especially under any semblance of control.

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Finally, there's a little bit more evidence of how hard he's humping up just to get to the velocities we're still seeing: his spin rate is down, even relative to his velocity. He's making his big muscles do big things, but down at the finest extremities, his body isn't responding in the same way.

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This is where all his dominance has gone. He's still throwing almost impossibly hard, but achieving both control and carry on the fastball is very difficult, because he's working at the edge of his capability more than he was in the summer—even though he was throwing harder and getting down the mound better in the summer. Mechanically, we can see it: he's running out of gas for the year. That's ok. It's normal. And he's still good enough to force hitters to be late.

Batters' average attack angle against his heater in October is -1.9°. They're not beating that pitch to its spot, any more than they did in the regular season. On average, hitters are swinging slower against the pitch than they did in the regular season, too. They're making much more contact, though, because they're sitting on the pitch and starting earlier, and because the hitters Misiorowski is seeing this month (including and especially the Rays) are good fastball hitters who hunt that pitch against everyone. Without the extra increments of explosion that his heater had in June, he can't quite throw it over the barrels of hitters who are looking for it, even though they also can't quite beat him on it.

That sets up a quandary. Heading into his final start of the year and facing a lineup for the second time in a series for the first time this fall, should Misiorowski trust some of his secondary stuff more? The Rays certainly won't be expecting that. They might give him the whiffs he's been lacking, if he can throw his curveball, cutter and slider close enough to the zone to entice them to swing at them. On the other hand, those are the pitches they can actually get to—not just touch, but hit hard, and maybe pull in the air.

On balance, it makes more sense to stick to the heater. Let them run up the pitch count; let them foul off lots of offerings. Eventually, when they're behind in a count and starting too early to hold back, throw them a curveball and hunt a strikeout. Be willing to leave the game after just five innings, but face 22 batters. Get through Junior Caminero the third time. That should be Misiorowski's goal.

After that, Murphy can go back to (most of) his horses. Aaron Ashby threw 31 pitches Tuesday night and needs to be on a short assignment, if any at all. DL Hall threw 24 and should also be limited. JoJo Romero only threw 11, though. He can pitch the sixth. Abner Uribe threw 19, but should have one inning in him. Trevor Megill only threw five pitches, and should be the one to stretch, if needed. The bottom line is that Murphy should try to avoid asking his bullpen for more than 12 outs. Ideally, Misiorowski should get them into the sixth, and maybe through it. That might mean letting him throw 100 pitches, which he hasn't done since July. The team should let him, if the fastball doesn't unduly flag in terms of velocity as the start progresses. They should let their soon-to-be Cy Young Award winner finish off the Rays. It probably won't be as pretty as his starts throughout the summer were, but if there's one more set of true fireballs left in him, it's time to ask Misiorowski to unleash them, without holding anything back.