Two Very Different Types of Changeup Collide in NLCS Game 2

Logan Henderson has one of the best straight changeups in baseball. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has one of the best splitters. In Game 2 of the NLCS on Monday afternoon, the two will square off, and the balance of the series will tip toward whichever club figures out the other's offspeed marvel better. The tasks the two lineups face, however, are not as similar as that might make it sound.

As we've discussed before, Henderson has a unique ability to match the arm speed and release point of his fastball when he throws his changeup. Opponents had a .248 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and whiffed on 37% of their swings against that offering this year, and it emanates from his ability to induce swings timed for the fastball on pitches that aren't. The changeup doesn't move exactly like his four-seamer, of course—not by a long shot—but most good changeups have more relative movement off the fastballs they complement than Henderson's does. He stumps hitters with timing, pure and simple.

With Yamamoto, it's not so. Deception is important to the operation of any offspeed pitch, but it takes a different form for Yamamoto. His splitter is only about 4.5 miles per hour slower than his four-seamer, so hitters aren't out in front against it nearly as often, or by as much. Instead, almost all the value he generates with his splitter comes from getting hitters to swing over it or tap it straight into the ground.

Hitters run out of bat more often against Henderson; they end up so early that they hit the ball off the end of their bat or not at all. Hitters center the ball on their barrels more against Yamamoto's splitter, and can even get jammed by it at times. It's possible to lift the ball when you center up Henderson's change, whereas Yamamoto's splitter will typically result in a ground ball or a low line drive, even if it's met cleanly. On the other hand, Henderson's change induces more whiffs, because it fools hitters so badly in terms of timing. 

When two right-handed pitchers with four-seamers leading their fastball mix and offspeed pitches that are better than their breaking balls face off, it's tempting to think of it as a matchup of similar styles. That's not the case here. Henderson's changeup and Yamamoto's splitter work very differently. That should make watching them even more interesting, though. As it so often does, in October, who wins will come down to which pitcher executes what they do best better.

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