Who Has the World Series Lineup Advantage? Taking a Look at How Brewers, Rays Match Up

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The Milwaukee Brewers adopted the slogan “Win Our Way” as they approached clinching a spot in the postseason.

That has a lot to do with the players they run out there on a daily basis. But now that strategy comes under bigger scrutiny as the Brewers face the Tampa Bay Rays on MLB’s greatest stage, the World Series. Specific matchups are going to be key in a seven-game series that is expected to be decided by the slimmest of advantages.

Down the stretch, the Brewers settled into a pretty routine lineup vs. right-handers and changes against left-handers, which manager Pat Murphy has continued through the first two rounds of the postseason.

The Tampa Bay Rays are very similar, which shouldn’t be a surprise considering the similarities between the teams. But the Rays have been a little more on-the-fly with how manager Kevin Cash fills out his lineup card.

With Game 1 set for Friday, let’s take a look at each of the lineups and what we might see as games progress.

Brewers Lineup

Expected Rays rotation: RHP Nick Martinez, RHP Drew Rasmussen, RHP Freddy Peralta, RHP Griffin Jax

Jackson Chourio, LF (RH)
Brice Turang, 2B (LH)
William Contreras, C (RH)
Jake Bauers, 1B (LH)
Christian Yelich, DH (LH)
Garrett Mitchell, CF (LH)
Cooper Pratt, SS (RH)
Sal Frelick, RF (LH)
David Hamilton, 3B (LH)

This is the typical lineup against a right-handed starter and the way the Crew will roll for pretty much every game with no left-handers likely to be a true starter. Don’t expect that lineup to last to the end of the game. The platoons against left-handers happen at designated hitter, where Andrew Vaughn could supplant Yelich, while switch-hitter Luis Lara would get the start over Frelick in right field and Joey Ortiz gets the nod over Hamilton at third. Ian Seymour is the only potential true left-handed starter for the Rays, but he has come out of the bullpen all season.

Rays Lineup

Expected Brewers rotation: RHP Jacob Misiorowski, RHP Logan Henderson, LHP Robert Gasser, bullpen game

Jonathan Aranda, 1B (RH)
Yandy Diaz, DH (RH)
Liam Hicks, C (LH)
Junior Caminero, 3B (RH)
Chandler Simpson, LF (RH)
Victor Mesa Jr., RF (LH)
Jonny DeLuca, CF (RH)
Richie Palacios, 2B (LH)
Taylor Walls, SS (S)

The Rays platoon at second with Ben Williamson and Jorge Mateo as the right-handed options, with Williamson getting more of the time even with Mateo coming over in mid-August after being released by Atlanta. All three played second in one of the AL Championship Series games. Mesa might be swapped out when Brewers left-hander Robert Gasser starts in favor of Ryan Vilade. Hicks, a left-handed hitter, is likely to get most of the starts at catcher, although Nic Fortes, a right-handed hitter, will pop in on occasion. Hicks has also bounced around in the lineup, hitting everywhere from third through eighth when starting in the postseason. Cedric Mullins will sometimes come in for defensive purposes to play center, with DeLuca moving to right and sending Mesa to the bench.

What Are The Key Matchups?

As you might expect with the Brewers having a rotation filled with rookies or others with minimal MLB experience, there is not much of a track record between Rays hitters and Brewers starters. In fact, between Misiorowski, Henderson and Gasser, there have been a grand total of 28 at-bats between that trio and the players expected to be on the Rays’ World Series roster. Of those, 22 came in the April 1 game—the second series of the season—in Misiorowski’s second start of the season. Ten Rays who are on the roster got to see the Miz either two or three times. Simpson reached twice vs. Misiorowski, on a bunt single and a walk.

Caminero is 5-for-18 vs. current Brewers pitchers, including 2-for-3 against right-handed reliever Antonio Senzatela. Diaz, the Rays’ other big bat, is 9-for-24 with homers off Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison. A good chunk of that was done against right-hander Dustin May (3-for-3) and Harrison (3-for-5), but Diaz is also 2-for-4 vs. left-hander JoJo Romero. Aranda is 2-for-2 against Senzatela, both doubles, so that might not be a matchup you see at all. Simpson has gone 6-for-18, including 2-for-2 with a pair of doubles when paired with right-hander Chad Patrick. Hicks faced the Brewers the most this season due to his tenure with the Miami Marlins. He went 7-for-23, including 5-for-24 vs. NLCS Crew pitchers (subtract Brandon Woodruff, add Senzatela).

Brewers closer Trevor Megill has given up four hits in 11 at-bats to this group of Rays hitters with Mullins going 2-for-2 with a double. Left-handed reliever Aaron Ashby has kept the Rays at 4-for-16, with Caminero and DeLuca going 1-for-2. Right-hander Abner Uribe has pretty much shut down the Rays, who have gone 1-for-14. Romero, the other big lefty out of the Brewers' bullpen, has held those not named Diaz (2-for-4) to 2-for-12. After Caminero and Aranda, as mentioned above, Senzatela has kept the other Rays to 2-for-16.

Meanwhile, there is a slightly bigger history of Brewers hitters facing these Rays pitchers. That could also make Game 1 more interesting. There are a handful of Brewers who have had success vs. Martinez, who got the Game 1 nod when Rasmussen needed an extra day of rest. Mitchell (4-for-12, two doubles), Frelick (4-for-13, double, four RBIs), Contreras (4-for-18, double, two homers, four RBIs), Yelich (5-for-19, double, homer) and Turang (4-for-16, two doubles, homer) will provide a stiff opening challenge. Rasmussen, the former Brewers prospect dealt away for shortstop Willy Adames, has seen Bauers go 3-for-8 with a walk, while Contreras is 2-for-5 with a homer and a walk. Yelich and Turang have homers as their lone hit in four plate appearances vs. Rasmussen.

Peralta was knocked around pretty good by the Brewers when he returned to American Family Field for his lone game against the Brewers, but the Rays have been notable changes to get him more on the level he was at with the Crew. Pratt went 3-for-3 with a homer to highlight the seven runs in 5⅓ innings on July 20. It will also be interesting to see if Vaughn starts against Peralta as he is 5-for-11 in his career against him. Jax has faced the Brewers most often of the four starters, but all seven of those appearances came out of the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen. Those short outings have resulted in a pretty balanced 10-for-24 show by the Brewers, with Yelich having the most time against Jax, going 2-for-6. Contreras is 2-for-4, while six other Brewers on the roster have one hit in a maximum of four plate appearances.

Against Rays relievers, right-handed closer Bryan Baker, who tied for the MLB lead with 41 saves, has limited the Brewers to 1-for-6, all before this season and during his time with the Baltimore Orioles, with Chourio getting that knock. Right-hander Kevin Kelly has kept the Crew at 2-for-8, with backup catcher Gary Sanchez going 1-for-2, the same as Bauers. Against right-hander Tyler Wells, the Brewers are just 3-for-17, with Sanchez homering in five at-bats. Cam Booser, one of likely three left-handers in the Rays’ bullpen, has yielded four hits in eight at-bats, with lefty-hitting Bauers going 2-for-2 with a double. Another Rays lefty, Seymour, has kept the Crew in check at 1-for-7, with Yelich getting the lone hit.

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Steve Drumwright grew up in Wisconsin and was forced out of youth baseball when he failed to make enough contact to play the sport he loves. He did make one memorable pitching appearance, summoned from right field in a blowout. Steve went on to a successful journalism career, beginning as a part-time high school sportswriter in small-town Wisconsin to becoming the No. 2 person in the newsroom in San Francisco. Steve enjoys telling the stories of other people and how sports is a terrific vehicle for telling those stories. He now lives in Southern California. Follow him on Bluesky.