That's a best-case-scenario outlook, and it assumes: - The NL Central will remain tight next year What's to suggest it won't. The Cubs have good pitching that will get better, but Alou and Sosa are a year older. The Cardinals have pitching problems and no talent on the horizon in AAA to help them out. The Cardinal also have a lotta cash dumped into position players and have deep pockets, but I don't see them spending big bucks on any free agents this year. The Reds have little pitching or money to spend on any. The Astro's also have a lot of cash in position talent and no cash to spend on pitching, their weak link. 2 decent starting pitchers, which the Brewers could afford, makes this team .500. Any team at .500 in this division on August 1 is still in it. Why throw away 4 years waiting for the guys in AA to become competitive? Those guys might be here in 05, but you know it will be at LEAST 2 years after that before they're good enough to win. The NL central doesn't have any locks. It's possible to take a team from 70 to 87 wins. That might be enough to win this division this year and next. I don't expect them to sign Millwood, but is too damn much to ask for a couple guys like Ponson, Milton, Batista, or Pavano? Add a decent RF'er and they still have a payroll in the mid 40's. It's stupid to concede this division, it can be had with a few smart aquisitions.