HF29

Lo and behold...about two minutes after I sign up for CSTV's package I tune into the Penn State -- Texas game and watch the final four innings of Brandon Workman's no hitter. Workman was outstanding and should continue to assert himself as a top 10-15 pick in the 2010 draft, health permitting. Workman's a big kid (about 6'5" 220) who throws from high 3/4 arm slot. His delivery is clean and simple. His fastball was regularly 93-94 with movement and his curveball had plenty of bite. His command of both pitches was excellent. I realize Penn State isn't Rice or LSU, but nevertheless a great showing by Workman. As an aside, I've watched a good portion of the Western Carolina -- USC game. Though Grant Green has come out of the gate a little slow here in '09, his performance today has been encouraging. He looks very relaxed at the plate and hit the ball hard several times. He's also filled out a bit since last year while retaining his speed/range. He's showed me nothing that would indicate slippage in his draft position. USC catcher Robert Stock (who, by the way, is still only 19 despite the fact he's a junior) showed plenty of power by hitting a towering HR to right field in the 8th. I wouldn't be surprised if he puts it together this spring and crawls up draft charts.

I've been watching the first six innings of the game and here are some observations on USD: Kyle Blair -- I understand that this was his first start and he's probably a little rusty; however I'm disappointed and expected to see a lot more from a guy who many people think will be a top ten pick in 2010. He had no fastball command whatsoever and I doubt his velo was more than 90-91. His curveball, which he possibly threw 50% of the time due to his lack of fastball command, looked a lot better. It's tight and he commands it well to either side of the plate. His changeup had nice fade. However, the main theme for Blair tonight was his lack of fastball command. If he was facing a better team, he probably wouldn't have gotten out of the first inning. Victor Sanchez -- Much more impressive. He's a big kid with wide hips who has room to put on at least 20 more pounds of muscle. He's solid at 3B with good mobility and a strong arm. But his bat is his money-maker. He has a laser quick swing with easy power. He turned on an inside fastball and hit a 420-430 foot bomb to left. I can definitely see him going in the first round in 2010. Austin Green -- Interesting freshman to keep an eye on. Very quick to the ball from the right side. He's another one who has more than enough room to fill out and gain power as he matures. He also moves well in LF.

CJ... When's the 2009 draft preview gonna be ready? I'm looking forward to reading it.

Hey Everyone.... I've started a general baseball blog. However, due to my passion for college and the draft, as well as my newfound appreciation for the Brewers, I'll be covering those topics quite often. I've already written a piece on Dale Sveum's departure. Here's the URL: http://www.theinfieldchatter.blogspot.com/ Thanks and enjoy the offseason...

Maybe I'm just too bullish on Hardy (and probably a little too bearish on Blackburn). But let's think of it in these terms -- If you were starting a big league team tomorrow what shortstops would you select in front of Hardy? Definitely Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes and maybe Stephen Drew. I can't think of any others. And I agree with you that a huge premium is placed on good young pitching. But in this post-steroid, post-HGH and post-amphetimine world, almost as much of a premium is placed on young, first-tier positional talent. Just look at how quickly you guys locked up Ryan Braun. Or the Rays signed Evan Longoria....That said, I'd have to think if Doug Melvin trades away J.J. Hardy it would be in exchange for a young pitcher with ace potential.

As a Brewers' fan (which I'm not -- I'm a die-hard Tigers' fan) I would need substantially more than Balckburn and a mid-level prospect if I was going to trade Hardy -- a 26-year-old above average defensive SS who could very well post an OPS in excess of .850 next season and still has two years before free agency. I would want talent more along the lines of a Garza/Zack Greinke/Chad Billingsley/Mike Pelfrey/Matt Cain/Scott Baker...i.e. a young, hard thrower who has displayed durability and some amount of sustained success at the big league level. And a guy who's at least two years from free agency. This may seem like a steep price, but then again if you look at the shortstops available this offseason (Julio Lugo, Jack Wilson, Orlando Cabrera), it's evident Hardy is far better and far more cost efficient than all of them.

The Tigers' need for a SS has been well-documented as has the Brewers' need for a legitimate front-of-the-rotation SP (assuming both Sabathia and Sheets leave this winter). Though the two teams don't match up well, I think you could work something out if you include the Rays. Thus my proposal: The Tigers trade Magglio Ordonez and cash (say $6MM per year) to the Rays. The Rays trade Matt Garza to the Brewers. The Brewers ship J.J. Hardy to the Tigers How this trade affects the teams: As stated above, the Tigers desperately need a SS and will also likely be looking to cut some payroll from $139MM (2nd highest in baseball in 2008). Though they would be giving the Rays a total of $18MM over the next three seasons, they would still be saving $36MM over that time (assuming Ordonez' approximate $18MM options for 2010 and 2011 kick in). In Hardy, Detroit would be acquiring a young, top-tier SS still two years away from free agency. The Rays have Carl Crawford hitting 5th in the ALDS. With all due respect to Crawford, Tampa Bay needs a little more juice to protect young slugger Evan Longoria. Though Ordonez would cost the Rays an extra $12MM per year, it's important to realize that they should receive a substantial attendance/revenue bump in 2009 (1st-time playoff teams commonly enjoy a spike in attendance one year after qualifying for the postseason). Therefore, the Rays should have no problem absorbing the incremental cost. Away from the pitcher's haven that is Comerica Park, don't be surprised in Ordonez puts up .300/.400/.550 numbers. Though the Rays would be giving up an electric arm in Garza, let's look at their pitching depth for a minute. They already have Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Andy Sonnenstine and Edwin Jackson at the big league level and David Price, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson closing in quickly. In other words, as good as Garza might become, replacing him shouldn't be a problem. The benefit for the Brewers in obvious. Phenom Alcides Escobar should in time be a solid replacement for Hardy, and in Garza they could very well be getting a young John Smoltz. A front three of Garza, Yovanni Gallardo and Manny Parra should keep the Brewers in contention for years.

From an irate Tiger fan, I just want to wish you Brewer fans the best of luck this October. You guys have built this team the right way and have a great organization -- from top to bottom -- and deserve to go deep into the month after so many years of futility. Hopefully this will be just the first of many consecutive postseason appearances for Milwaukee. I'll be rooting for you guys!

Nice list, Colby Jack. Didn't realize you had made it to the Cape. I realize he was only there about two weeks, but did you get to see Dustin Ackley at all? Speaking of Ackley, it should probably be noted that Ackley and Grant Green -- the top two draft-eligible college position players on EVERYONE'S list -- are represented by Boras.

Thanks for the info on Jackson and Eibner, ColbyJack. Coincidentally, Jackson was hit by a pitch and removed from the game last night. The severity of the injury is not known. And Dustin Ackley, likely the Cape's "purest" hitter this summer is rumored to have left the Cape last night to seek medical treatment for his elbow. The elbow injury, which has plagued him since high school, is the primary reason why he has played most 1B his first two years in Chapel Hill. This could be very good news in the long run. If treatment is successful and Ackley regains his arm strength he could finally play CF on a full time basis, thereby greatly enhancing his draft status. Nevertheless in 42 ABs he was raking, with two home runs a batting average over .400 and OPS of nearly 1.300. It sounds like you're well tuned in with the NWL. What are the early reports on SS/3B Andy Burns and OF Brian Humphries, two rising freshmen who are reportedly going to spurn pro offers and matriculate later this summer at Kentucky and Pepperdine, respectively. If I'm not mistaken, Humphries, who was drafted by Boston last month, got rave reviews as a California high school senior.

Thanks for the input, ColbyJack. Phegley was a good catch (no pun intended). I do think that the two things that might hurt his draft status are 1) the fact that he doesn't play for a major baseball power in a powerhouse conference and 2) the sheer number of high ceiling prep catchers (and, apparently, you can now add Richard Stock to the list). Two college outfielders -- one from the draft class of '09 and one from 2010 -- that really intrigue me are Brett Jackson of Cal and Brett Eibner of Arkansas. Jackson put up decent numbers during the college season and has really started to hit with power with Cotuit on the Cape. Eibner was a 4th round pick by the Astros in '07 but instead decided to head to college. He had a very solid freshman year, and despite some inconsistency, has shown flashes of brilliance this summer with Wareham. CJ (or anyone else), what's your take on these guys? Potential first rounders? Ceilings? Big league comps? Thanks for the AFLAC post.

That's funny, CJ, because by the time I has gotten to #10 I has run out of names and was more or less taking a flyer on Milleville. Any other year he's probably not even in the conversation for the top 20, but next year's college position crop seems so week that he enters into the equation. The pitching depth is obviously far greater. Like you, I really like Inman and think he will have a monster year in '09 and be a surefire first rounder. He has such a clean delivery. I'm not sure he reminds me of Sheets, though he does remind me of someone (I just can't think of who it is at the present moment). The guy who does remind me of Sheets, however, is a 2010 guy, Chance Ruffin. Not too tall, mid-90's heat with a power breaking ball. Speaking of 2010, that college pitching class looks STACKED. Off the top of my head I can think of at least seven guys who who qualify as a top-15 talent in an "average" year: -- Matt Harvey -- Kyle Blair -- Ruffin -- Chris Hernandez -- Barrett Loux -- Brandon Workman (who, I might add, is going crazy on the Cape) -- Drew Pomeranz Finally, though I've lamented the fact that 2009 does not look to be a good year for college position players, based on some of the early research I've done, it does look to be a great year all-around for high school talent. But I'm sure ColbyJack can speak a lot more to this than I can.

CW11-- Thanks for the kind words. I'll try to give you as much as I know on both Dean and Powers. I've seen Dean a bunch and like him plenty. In terms of his body type and hitting style, he reminds me the most of the Mariners' Raul Ibanez. He's a big kid -- at least 6'01" maybe 6'02" and in the neighborhood of 200 lbs, well proportioned with broad shoulders and muscular arms. He's got a compact swing with plenty of juice. He's very quick to the ball with not much of a load. He can square up the best fastballs while having no problems sitting back and locking on to the offspeed stuff. He has good plate discipline. As I alluded to above, he really made his mark in the regionals and CWS, which is further proof he can hit good pitching. He only has one hit in 13 AB on the Cape this summer (he was a late arrival), but has struck out only once. I have no doubt he'll hit as he put up very respectable numbers there last summer. The only puzzling thing about Dean is that he has logged a lot of time at DH for such a young kid and I don't understand why. He has at least average speed and a decent arm. While LSU always has a very athletic outfield -- led by mega-athletic CF Jared Mitchell -- I still don't know why Dean has not gotten in the field more. Maybe one of the people on the message board has the answer to this riddle. I don't know as much about Powers. He's a VERY big kid -- I'd have to say about 6'2" and 220, or so....kind of like Matt LaPorta. His approach is also similar to LaPorta in that he loads up big time before every pitch. But once in motion, his swing is so quick he can get away with it. No park is too big for him. The biggest question for him is whether he'll be able to hit the high hard stuff. On defense, Powers has plenty of arm, but the jury's still out whether his mobility (or lack thereof) will allow him to stick at the hot corner. I love Dustin Ackley. I agree that he could wake up Christmas morning a slap a single up the middle or work a walk. The big issue with him, however, is whether he'll ever develop enough power. If he does, then we're talking about Darin Erstad circa 1998-2001. If not, we've got ourselves a speedy Jeremy Reed. I love the fact, by the way, that Ackley is slated to play CF next season for UNC. It should greatly enhance his draft status. I have to admit, my knowledge of HS draft prospects for 2009 is currently poor at best, though I've heard through the grapevine it could be a banner crop. What can you tell me about the following up-the-middle prospects: -- Chad Kettler -- Drew Steckenrider -- Jake Morris -- Connor Harrell -- Deven Marrero Finally, funny you mentioned Gavin Brooks. He was 11th on my list. I know almost nothing about Reyes.

I know it's almost a year away, but it's never too early to discuss top prospects for the 2009 draft. I don't have much of a handle on the high school scene, but here are who I think are the top ten pitchers and top ten position players. At this point I think the pitching crop is deeper than the hitters. Would love to hear your comments/opinions..... Top Ten Pitchers: 1) Alex White -- North Carolina --> Mixes a mid-90's fastball with sharp slider. Great size and stamina. Profiles as no worse than a #2 in the majors. 2) Stephen Strasburg -- San Diego State --> Throws even harder than White, but needs to further refine his secondary stuff. At 6'05" 220 lbs is built like a workhorse. 3) Kyle Gibson -- Missouri --> Low 90's fastball with solid secondary stuff. Also offers plenty of projectability with his 6'07" 210 lbs frame. 4) Jeff Inman -- Stanford --> His stats were not awe inspiring, but offers a 93-95 mph fastball, solid curveball and, like most Stanford hurlers, is cerebral. 5) A.J. Griffin -- San Diego --> Profiles as the best closer in the '09 draft class. Best pitch is a mid-90's fastball with plenty of movement. Great size. 6) Andy Oliver -- Oklahoma State --> Lefties with 93 mph fastball and excellent curveballs don't grow on trees. 7) Kendall Volz -- Baylor --> Has the size and stuff; however needs to improve command and control. 8) Mike Minor -- Vanderbilt --> Has better size and throws a bit harder than former Vandy southpaw Jeremy Sowers. 9) Jason Stoffel -- Arizona --> It should say something that despite the presence of 1st rounders Ryan Perry and Daniel Schlereth, Perry was the Wildcats' closer in '08. ** Brett Hunter** -- Pepperdine --> If this rising senior decides to return to school and is healthy, his high-90's heater should catapult him up this list. Top 10 Hitters: 1) Grant Green, SS -- USC --> Has enjoyed unbelievable success with wood on the Cape a la Evan Longoria a few years ago. At 6'03" he might outgrow SS. 2) Dustin Ackley, OF-1B -- North Carolina --> Should eventually wind up in CF where he'll evoke Darin Erstad comparisons. Clocked at 3.9 seconds home to 1B. 3) Blake Dean, OF -- LSU --> His CWS heroics have given him almost legendary status in the Bayou. Tremendous power from the left side. 4) Kentrail Davis, OF -- Tennessee --> Despite being just 5'09" Davis has the most pop on Team USA. An above average outfielder. 5) Robert Stock, C -- USC --> From a statistical persepctive he has disappointed, but this 18-year-old rising junior has displayed a cannon arm, discerning eye and plenty of power potential. 6) Connor Powers, 3B -- Mississippi --> Missed some time in '08 due to iunjury, but still displayed crazy power. Might eventually have to run across the diamond to 1B. 7) Trevor Coleman, C -- Missouri --> Defensive wizard with a great eye at the plate and improving power. 8) Aaron Senne, OF -- Missouri --> Minnesota native has a coveted power stroke from teh left side but is still raw. 9) Matt den Dekker, OF -- Florida --> Might end up as a "tweener" with not enough power for the corners and not enough speed for CF. 10) Brent Milleville, C-1B -- Stanford --> Might end up as the Ryan Garko of 2009; a senior catcher who hits his way to the top of the draft.

You might be onto something, Patrick regarding the Reds' pick. I had sent a question to Jim callis over at BA over the weekend asking him if Juston Smoak, who is my favorite hitter in this draft, could go to the Reds at #7 -- despite the Reds already having Joey Votto entrenched at 1B. Callis said most definitely as he spoke with Scouting Director Chris Buckley and Buckley was adamant that the organization would take the "best talent available." He then made a point to say that included either Buster Posey or Kyle Skipworth if one of the two was still available (despite the fact the Reds took prep catcher Devin Mesoraco last year). This might be a sign that the Reds are unhappy with Mesoraco who had to stay in extended Spring Training more than an extra month and is just 3 for 22 with nine K's and no extra base hits at Low A Dayton.