Sam Caulder

Image courtesy of Kirby Lee-Imagn Images On April 30, 2023, the Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins struck a trade that didn't generate much excitement from either fan base. Milwaukee acquired right-handed reliever Trevor Megill in exchange for cash considerations and a player to be named later, who eventually turned out to be Taylor Floyd. At the time, Megill was a 29-year-old with just 68 2/3 career innings under his belt. It seemed unlikely to pay huge dividends for either side. Then, the Brewers' pitching factory got their hands on Megill, and the rest is history. Megill has developed into one of baseball's most reliable late-inning relievers, establishing himself as a legitimate shutdown closer. Since the start of the 2024 season, he's converted 81 of 93 save opportunities, with the saves total tied for the sixth-most in baseball during that span. He's also finished every season with an ERA of 2.72 or lower, and his underlying numbers suggest he's been every bit as good as his results indicate. He’s been just as effective on the biggest stage, allowing only one run across 13 career postseason innings. He fills up the strike zone, gets hitters to chase pitches outside of it, and generates plenty of swings and misses. Even more impressively, he's accomplished all of this with just two pitches in his arsenal. So, what have the Brewers done to turn Megill into one of the game's better closers? What I like most about Milwaukee's approach is that they haven't forced Megill to completely overhaul his skill set. Instead, they've made some small adjustments, allowing his existing strengths to play up. One of the biggest changes has been his pitch mix. Before joining the Brewers, Megill regularly threw a slider, but he abandoned the pitch after arriving in Milwaukee. Since then, he's relied almost exclusively on his four-seam fastball and curveball. When Megill first arrived in Milwaukee, his curveball averaged around 83 MPH. It now sits closer to 88. That increase in velocity has come at the expense of some of the pitch's movement, but the results speak for themselves. In 2022, the season before he was traded, his curveball generated a whiff rate of just 28.6%. Since joining the Brewers, that number has climbed to at least 46.5% in every season. That's a massive jump, and it starts with how his pitches work together. Megill already had a fairly steep arm angle (around 51°) before the trade. The Brewers have taken that a step further, pushing him up to approximately 54°. That adjustment has helped his four-seam fastball play up, particularly in the upper part of the strike zone. Typically, pitchers with more over-the-top arm angles generate significant vertical movement on their four-seamers. Megill had struggled to get that kind of movement out of his fastball, but Milwaukee has helped him add roughly 2.5 inches of rise. That might not sound like much, but imagine the width of a baseball bat. Two-and-a-half inches can be the difference between squaring up a pitch and missing it entirely. Now that hitters have to respect the movement on Megill's fastball, his curveball has become even more effective. He can start both pitches in similar locations, making it difficult for hitters to distinguish between them before it's too late, and the relatively small velocity gap between the two only adds to the deception. That's really been the name of Megill's game over the last four years. With only two pitches to work with, he has to keep hitters guessing, and he's done an excellent job of making that limited arsenal work. His bat-tracking data illustrate just how effective he's been. Hitters rarely square him up, even when they're able to get the timing right. They're often on top of his curveball or swinging underneath his four-seamer, struggling to make quality contact against either pitch. The curveball has been particularly difficult to recognize, with hitters frequently getting out in front of it. That combination of deception, velocity, and movement has made Megill incredibly difficult to barrel up, and it showed in his results. He allowed just one home run and 10 total extra-base hits all season. You don't need a six-pitch arsenal to succeed in the major leagues. Sometimes, you just need two pitches that work together, and Megill is the perfect example. He throws hard, fills up the strike zone, and keeps hitters off balance. Milwaukee hasn't reinvented him so much as refined what makes him effective, and those adjustments have turned an inexpensive acquisition into one of baseball's most dependable closers. Now, Megill is Pat Murphy's guy in the ninth inning for a Brewers team just four wins from a championship. Not a bad return for cash considerations and a player to be named later. View full article

Trevor Megill was an unproven reliever who struggled in Minnesota before he arrived in Milwaukee. Three years later, the Brewers have one of baseball's best closers, thanks to a few key adjustments. View full video

Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images It’s crazy the difference matchups can make. In the NLDS against San Diego, Pat Murphy rarely leaned on his left-handed arms against a right-handed-heavy Padres offense. But in the NLCS, it has been a much different story, and that was extremely evident in Game 3. Left-hander Robert Gasser got the nod for Milwaukee to start the game, making the biggest start of his career. He was pitching in the championship series, on the road, against a lineup full of future Hall of Famers and All-Stars. Yet, it looked like just another Wednesday for him. Gasser fired five shutout innings, allowing just three hits and a walk while striking out three. It wasn’t the flashiest outing; he didn’t overpower the Dodgers’ lineup or rack up a ton of swing-and-miss. But he did his job, and he did it extremely well. One of the biggest keys to his success was his ability to get ahead of hitters. Gasser threw first-pitch strikes to 14 of the 20 batters he faced, consistently putting himself in favorable counts and allowing him to dictate the at-bat. Against a lineup as talented as Los Angeles’s, that can make all the difference. As we discussed before the appearance (and as he's been doing more often down the stretch), Gasser leaned heavily on his sinker. There was a clear focus on getting the pitch inside against left-handed hitters and letting it run away from righties. That approach helped him keep the Dodgers off balance, particularly when paired with his sweeper, which has been his primary pitch throughout his career. To be fair, there was some good fortune involved on the sinkers the Dodgers put in play. Not every ball found a hole, and Gasser benefited from some good defense. But that doesn’t take away from the effectiveness of his overall approach. By establishing the sinker, Gasser created opportunities for his sweeper to do damage. The breaking ball generated whiffs on 50% of swings against it, giving him a reliable weapon when he needed to finish an at-bat. After spreading his pitch selection across his entire arsenal throughout the year, he concentrated on those two offerings in Game 3. A whopping 82% of his pitches were either a sinker or a sweeper, a significant departure from his usual approach. The adjustment worked, and it gave Milwaukee exactly what they needed from their starter. Gasser kept the Dodgers off the scoreboard, limited their opportunities and handed the ball over with the Brewers in position to win a critical postseason game. Gasser wasn’t the only left-hander who was brilliant for Milwaukee, either. After a rough appearance from Abner Uribe, Murphy called on DL Hall, and boy, did he deliver. Hall entered in the bottom of the sixth with one out and a pair of runners in scoring position. The Dodgers had a golden opportunity to add to their 2-1 lead, but Hall made sure that didn’t happen. He struck out Enrique Hernandez and Tommy Edman to end the inning, escaping a dangerous situation without allowing a run. That was a huge pick-me-up for Milwaukee, and it proved to be even bigger when the Brewers took the lead in the top of the seventh. Hall’s night wasn’t done, though. He returned for a 1-2-3 seventh inning against the top of the Dodgers’ order, continuing to keep their offense in check. He then retired Kyle Tucker and Max Muncy in the eighth before a Shohei Ohtani single brought his night to an end. Hall was excellent. He generated whiffs on four of his 28 pitches, while only two of the six balls put in play against him were hit hard. Just like Gasser, Hall consistently got himself into pitcher-friendly counts, getting ahead of six of the eight batters he faced. That ability to work ahead allowed him to put pressure on hitters and get them to chase pitches outside the strike zone. Rather than allowing the Dodgers to settle into comfortable at-bats, he forced them to swing at his pitches and capitalize on opportunities when they presented themselves. Considering the situation he entered, Hall's ability to shut down the Dodgers was especially impressive. He inherited a high-leverage mess in the sixth, escaped without allowing a run, and then continued to shut down one of baseball’s most dangerous lineups. Game 3 of the NLCS felt incredibly on-brand for Brewers baseball. They threw strikes, played strong defense, and came through with timely hitting. It was a complete team effort, and Milwaukee is now just one win away from a trip to the World Series. That game goes in a much different direction without Gasser’s strong start and Hall’s ability to retire seven consecutive Dodgers after entering with runners in scoring position. The two left-handers attacked hitters, made the necessary adjustments and delivered when Milwaukee needed them most. The Brewers' ability to get contributions beyond their stars has been a significant part of their success, and Game 3 was another example of that. Against the Padres, Milwaukee had limited opportunities to lean on its left-handed arms. Against the Dodgers, those same arms have become a major advantage. View full article

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect Throughout the regular season, the Milwaukee Brewers were one of the most disciplined offenses in the major leagues. They led baseball with a .341 on-base percentage and drew the second-most walks of any club. The approach that helped them put together an impressive regular season has carried over into October. Among all playoff teams, Milwaukee owns the highest on-base percentage, at .363. They’re drawing walks, putting their bats on the ball, and refusing to give opposing pitchers easy outs. It’s an approach that’s served them well all year, and in Game 3, it’s going to have to continue. The Dodgers turn to left-hander Blake Snell, a two-time Cy Young Award winner who’s been a key piece of their rotation (when healthy) over the last two years. He’s one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, and he’s historically been solid in the postseason. Across 86 1/3 career postseason innings, Snell owns a 3.23 ERA with 107 strikeouts. When he’s on, he can be nearly impossible to hit. But as dominant as Snell can be, he’s also capable of struggling to find the strike zone, and that inconsistency could give the Brewers an opportunity to take advantage. Snell’s command issues were on full display during his first postseason start in the NLDS. He made it through just 3 2/3 innings, allowing three hits and one earned run. Those numbers might not look particularly concerning, but the five walks he allowed do. That’s a recipe for trouble, especially against a lineup that thrives on working deep counts and capitalizing on mistakes. That’s where Milwaukee has a chance to win the game. The Brewers don’t need to string together a bunch of hits to put pressure on Snell. If they remain patient, avoid chasing pitches outside the zone, and force him to throw strikes, Milwaukee should have opportunities to get runners on base and put the Dodgers in uncomfortable situations. Of course, being patient doesn't mean watching every pitch go by. The Brewers still need to capitalize if Snell leaves a pitch out over the heart of the plate. But by making him work through at-bats and refusing to give away outs, they can force him to expend more pitches than he'd like. Milwaukee already showed how effective that approach can be against Los Angeles on Monday. They knocked out Yoshinobu Yamamoto after just 2 2/3 innings of work, forcing the Dodgers to turn to their bullpen much earlier than anticipated. Though known for his efficiency and ability to consistently work deep into games, Yamamoto couldn't survive the Brewers' approach. They fought off pitches, extended at-bats, and made him work for every out. Snell presents a different challenge. He's more of a wild card, capable of cruising through seven innings or struggling to make it through four, as he did in the NLDS. That unpredictability makes it difficult to know exactly what Milwaukee will get. But if the Brewers can force Snell into another short outing, it could have a significant impact on the game, as well as the rest of the series. Ideally, Milwaukee would complete the sweep and take the series in four games. Unfortunately, that's probably not the likeliest outcome against a Dodgers team with this much talent. If Los Angeles manages to extend the series, bullpen usage and pitching decisions could become increasingly important. If the Brewers aren't able to complete the sweep, the two teams will have three games over the next three days. Should the series go the distance (which still wouldn't be surprising, given the talent on both sides), they would wind up playing each other five more times over the next six days. That's a lot of baseball in a very short period, and it puts more pressure on both managers to manage their pitching staffs carefully. For Milwaukee, forcing Snell out of the game early could create opportunities to exploit the Dodgers' bullpen and potentially put Los Angeles in a very difficult position for the remainder of the series. Every additional inning the Dodgers' relievers have to cover tonight could make a difference in the days ahead. The same goes for the Brewers' pitching staff, of course. Milwaukee will need to be mindful of their own bullpen usage, especially if this series stretches beyond four games. Forcing Dave Roberts to make difficult decisions with his starters and relievers could give the Brew Crew a valuable advantage down the stretch. On paper, tonight feels like a matchup that favors Milwaukee's offense. A patient lineup that consistently draws walks is going up against a pitcher who has struggled with command throughout his career. But, of course, baseball isn't won and lost in spreadsheets. Snell has the stuff to dominate even the most disciplined lineups, and the Dodgers have plenty of ways to counter Milwaukee's approach. The Brewers need to continue doing what they've done so well all year. Make Snell work, be selective at the plate, foul off tough pitches, and force the Dodgers to make a move earlier than they'd like. If they can do that, it'll give them an opportunity to take advantage of Snell's weaknesses and put pressure on Los Angeles from the opening inning. If that approach forces the Dodgers to dig deeper into their bullpen than they planned, the benefits could extend well beyond tonight's game. View full article

Image courtesy of Jon Endow-Imagn Images Despite a massive Game 1 win Sunday night, the Milwaukee Brewers have no time to celebrate. With Game 2 on deck, the Los Angeles Dodgers will look to even the series before heading home, putting plenty of pressure on Brewers starting pitcher Logan Henderson. The 24-year-old right-hander was sensational throughout the regular season, and that success has carried over into October. Henderson allowed just one run in five innings in Game 2 of the NLDS against the San Diego Padres, helping Milwaukee continue its postseason run. However, Monday’s matchup presents a much different challenge against a Dodgers lineup that can punish even the smallest mistakes. Fortunately for the Brewers, Henderson has already shown he can handle them. This will mark the third time that he's faced Los Angeles this season, and he’s won both of the previous matchups. Now, with the stakes higher than ever, he’ll look to keep that trend going. Henderson’s first showdown with the defending champions came on May 22, in just his fifth major-league start of the season. Despite his limited experience, he looked quite comfortable against (arguably) baseball’s most dangerous lineup. The right-hander tossed five scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and three walks while striking out seven. Los Angeles struggled to make consistent contact, and Henderson kept the Dodgers off balance throughout his outing. He generated 15 whiffs on just 85 pitches, while doing an excellent job of limiting hard contact. For a young pitcher still establishing himself in the big leagues, it was an impressive performance against a lineup loaded with proven hitters. Of course, having success against a team once is one thing. Repeating that performance against the same opponent—particularly one with the talent and offensive depth of the Dodgers—is an entirely different challenge. Henderson passed that test the second time around. Fast-forward about three months to August 16, when the Brewers and Dodgers met again in Los Angeles. Henderson took the mound in the fourth and final game of the series, facing a lineup that had already seen him earlier in the season. The results were just as impressive. Henderson delivered seven innings of one-run ball, surrendering only three hits and one walk while striking out six. He once again generated 15 whiffs, with nine coming on his changeup, and prevented the Dodgers from consistently squaring up his pitches. It was another outstanding performance against a lineup that rarely makes life easy for opposing pitchers. Henderson showed that his first outing against Los Angeles wasn’t a fluke, keeping the Dodgers guessing for seven innings. Now, he’ll attempt to accomplish something even more difficult by shutting them down for a third time. And with a trip to the World Series on the line, the timing couldn’t be much bigger. If Henderson wants to continue his dominance against the Dodgers, the first step is relatively simple: keep leaning on his changeup. The pitch has been his best weapon throughout the season, and his previous matchups with Los Angeles offer plenty of evidence that it can give the Dodgers problems. Henderson threw his changeup 23 times across 85 pitches in his first meeting with the Dodgers. That number increased to 34 of his 93 pitches in the August matchup. There’s little reason to stray from that approach now. The changeup has been an important part of Henderson’s success all year, and he’ll need it to be effective again if he hopes to navigate the Dodgers’ lineup multiple times. However, the pitch mix is only part of the equation. Henderson’s four-seam fastball location will be just as important in determining how successful he can be. As much as the Dodgers have struggled with Henderson, seven of the 12 four-seamers they’ve put in play across their two matchup have left the bat at 95 miles per hour or harder. He’s still managed to deliver a pair of excellent outings, but the underlying contact numbers suggest there could be some trouble if he leaves too many fastballs over the heart of the plate. Fortunately for Henderson, many of those balls were hit on the ground. Still, relying on the Dodgers to keep hitting hard fastballs into the ground isn’t a sustainable strategy. A lineup with that much power can turn a few misplaced pitches into a very different ballgame, especially in October. Taking a 2-0 lead into the series would put the Brewers in an excellent position as they head to Los Angeles. They’d have put the Dodgers on the brink of elimination, needing only two more wins to advance to the World Series. Losing, however, would change the complexion of the series. Instead of putting the Dodgers in a difficult position, Milwaukee would head west tied at one game apiece, effectively turning the matchup into a best-of-five series and handing the Dodgers home-field advantage. Jacob Misiorowski lasted only 4 1/3 innings in Game 1 last night, meaning Milwaukee’s bullpen has already been called upon early in the series. If the Brewers want to maintain their advantage, they need Henderson to provide some length and keep their relievers from being overworked. Quality innings will be just as important as quantity. Milwaukee can’t afford to let the Dodgers build an early lead, but they also need Henderson to work efficiently enough to get deep into the game. The good news is that he’s already shown he can do exactly that against Los Angeles. Of course, postseason baseball brings a different level of pressure, and the Dodgers will have made adjustments. The young right-hander will need to make his own adjustments in response. If he can keep his changeup effective, locate his fastball, and work deep into the game, Milwaukee will have a real opportunity to take a commanding series lead. View full article

Image courtesy of Kirby Lee-Imagn Images Well, well, well. We meet again. After facing off in last year’s NLCS, the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers will once again go head-to-head with a trip to the World Series on the line. Brewers fans remember all too well how last year’s series went down. The Brewers themselves do, too. Milwaukee will need more than the revenge factor on its side this time around, though. The Dodgers are built for October baseball. They’re looking to become the first team since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees to win three straight World Series titles, and their roster is essentially an All-Star team. This should be an awesome series, with (arguably) the two best teams in Major League Baseball going at it for a second straight year. What should we expect from this series, and what does Milwaukee need to do to knock off the reigning champions? Let’s start with what to expect. Pitching Will Dominate If you thought the NLDS was low-scoring, buckle up. These are the two best pitching staffs in the National League, and last year’s NLCS saw them combine for just 19 runs in four games. Both staffs have gotten even better since then. The Dodgers added Tarik Skubal and Edwin Díaz, among others, while Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson have emerged as legitimate aces for Milwaukee. If you’re into pitcher’s duels, this is the series for you. Neither team should have much trouble finding quality arms to throw at the other, and that could make every offensive opportunity that much more important. A couple of mistakes could be the difference between winning and losing a game, especially if these teams continue to keep scoring to a minimum. The Running Game I also think we’re going to see both teams be aggressive on the basepaths. Coming into this series, the Brewers and Dodgers had very different approaches to stealing bases. Milwaukee was one of the most aggressive teams in baseball in that department, while Los Angeles was among the least so. However, the Dodgers were efficient when they did attempt to steal. In a series that figures to be extremely close, getting runners into scoring position by swiping a bag could create a massive advantage. That should be especially important for Milwaukee, considering the Dodgers haven’t been particularly effective at throwing out opposing runners. According to Statcast, Brewers pitchers were fifth-best in the league this year at holding runners, allowing a net of 21 fewer bases than the average staff. The Dodgers, though allowed 19 more bases to be taken, fourth-worst in the bigs. The Brewers' edge in this department could become an important one. There's No Slug on the Ground So, what does Milwaukee need to do to take down the reigning back-to-back champions? For starters, the Brewers’ pitching staff needs to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. Milwaukee finished the regular season with the third-highest groundout-to-flyout ratio in the league, and that approach will be especially important against a lineup full of some of the best power hitters in the sport. The Dodgers have pop throughout their order, and giving those hitters opportunities to elevate the ball could be a recipe for disaster. As I mentioned earlier, this should be a relatively low-scoring series. One mistake up in the zone could be enough to decide a game, particularly when Los Angeles has so many hitters capable of turning one into a home run. The Brewers need to live down in the zone, generate ground balls, and limit the number of opportunities they give the Dodgers to do damage in the air. Easier said than done, of course, but it will be a key factor in determining whether Milwaukee can advance. Scoring in the Red Zone The Brewers don’t necessarily need to put up huge offensive numbers to win this series. But when they get runners into scoring position, they need to find ways to bring them home. Stringing together timely hits, taking advantage of defensive mistakes, and putting pressure on the Dodgers’ pitching staff could go a long way toward getting Milwaukee over the hump. The running game can be part of this. A well-timed bunt could be involved, too. But the lifeblood of the team is the ability to find grass when the defense is stretched by runners being on base. They couldn't do it consistently against the Padres. Whether it means seeing the ball deeper or sitting on a particular pitch more often with the intention to ambush, Brewers batters have to find ways to attack when a single is likely to equal a run. Hendo and Mis, Then Who Dis? Finally, the back end of the starting rotation needs to step up. Behind Misiorowski and Henderson, Milwaukee’s rotation is a lot more uncertain. Winning the games those two start will be critical, but the Brewers can't expect them to do all the heavy lifting. Guys like Robert Gasser, Dustin May, and even Kyle Harrison or Shane Drohan will need to make meaningful contributions. Gasser delivered a strong start in Game 4 on Wednesday night, while May looked good through the first couple of innings of Game 3. Milwaukee will need more of that from its starters as the series progresses. Their bullpen will play a major role in this matchup, but their impact is severely limited if the Brewers’ starters can't give the team a lead to protect—or at least a tie to maintain. Getting quality outings from the back of the rotation (even if that means only three or four innings at a time) will be vital as the setting of the series switches from Milwaukee to Los Angeles. The Brewers have the pitching talent, speed, and overall roster to make this a competitive series. But beating the Dodgers will require them to execute in the moments that matter most. Milwaukee can't afford to waste opportunities at the plate, give away free bases, or let the Dodgers take advantage of mistakes on the mound. If the Brewers can limit the damage, manufacture runs and get enough out of their rotation beyond their top two starters, they have a legitimate chance to avenge last year’s NLCS loss and claim their first NL pennant. The Dodgers are going to be a difficult opponent to beat. But if Milwaukee can clean up a few of the issues that plagued it last October, there's no reason this team can't find themselves playing for a World Series title. View full article

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect For four games, they had to grind and gut it out, but the Milwaukee Brewers are heading to the NLCS for a second straight year. While there were plenty of big moments throughout the series, left-hander Aaron Ashby deserves particular praise for the role he played in getting Milwaukee past the San Diego Padres. Ashby had a terrific regular season, posting a 3.12 ERA with 116 strikeouts over 89 1/3 innings. That impressive performance carried over to the NLDS, where you could argue no single Brewer had a bigger impact on the series than he did. Let’s go back to Game 1 on Saturday. The game was tied 2-2 in the top of the fifth, when Antonio Senzatela entered in relief of Jacob Misiorowski and quickly allowed some traffic on the bases. With left-handed hitter Jackson Merrill coming to the plate, Pat Murphy decided to call upon Ashby earlier than he normally would. The southpaw delivered. He retired Merrill to end the scoring threat, then got the next four Padres he faced before Murphy turned to Abner Uribe in the seventh. It was an impressive stretch in a tight game, and it gave Milwaukee exactly what they needed, in a situation where one mistake could have changed the complexion of the series. Ashby wasn’t finished making an impact. Fast-forward not even 24 hours, and the left-hander was back on the mound in the eighth inning of Game 2, with Milwaukee trailing by a run. Merrill greeted him with a ground-ball single, and Samad Taylor followed with a bunt single to put two runners on with nobody out. Suddenly, San Diego had an opportunity to break the game open and put itself in a commanding position in the series. Instead, Ashby did what good relievers do: he found a way to get himself out of trouble. Xander Bogaerts worked the count full, forcing Ashby to dig deep with two runners aboard. The Brewers' left-hander responded by reaching back for a triple-digit sinker on the inner third of the plate, freezing Bogaerts for out number one. He then got Freddy Fermin to ground into an inning-ending double play, escaping the jam without allowing a run. That sequence turned out to be a massive moment in the series, considering what later transpired in Game 2 courtesy of Jackson Chourio. Milwaukee came away with a dramatic win, and Ashby's ability to keep San Diego from adding to their lead held the door open for the Brewers' late rally. Had he failed to escape that inning, the entire series could have unfolded differently. Instead, Ashby kept the deficit manageable and gave his teammates a chance to make something happen. He didn't pitch at all in Game 3, but he sure did in Game 4. After Robert Gasser gave the Crew four solid innings, Ashby was the first man out of the bullpen, with the Brewers looking to protect their one-run lead. He struck out Taylor, before getting Fernando Tatis Jr. and Merrill to ground out, needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. With the heart of San Diego's order coming up in the sixth, Ashby was clearly staying in the game. Manny Machado grounded out to start the inning. Ty France drew a walk, but Ashby responded by getting the very next batter to ground into an inning-ending double play, putting another zero on the board. At this point, Ashby had already worked beyond 20 pitches through two innings, and Murphy hadn't asked any of his relievers to go deeper than that throughout the series. But the left-hander wasn't done. He returned for the seventh and worked around a two-out walk, striking out two more Padres to finish another scoreless inning. It was the first time all season that he had thrown three innings in an appearance, and it was the only time in the NLDS that a Brewers reliever recorded more than five outs in a single outing. Ashby recorded nine. In a series wherein Milwaukee's bullpen was asked to navigate some difficult situations, that length was incredibly valuable. He didn't just get a couple of important outs or bridge the gap to the back end of the bullpen. He gave Murphy three full innings of effective work, keeping San Diego off the board while taking pressure off the rest of the relief corps. If there were an MVP of this series, I think it's Ashby. The NLDS could have looked drastically different without his clutch performances, and what makes his work even more impressive is that he delivered in three very different situations. He entered a tie game fairly early in Game 1; escaped a dangerous jam while trailing in Game 2; and gave Milwaukee three strong innings in a series-clinching Game 4. Those aren't easy circumstances for any reliever, and Ashby handled each of them about as well as Milwaukee could have hoped. By Championship Win Probability Added, Chourio (6.1%) has Ashby (4.9%) beat in this series, but that's purely because Chourio came through in one moment. According to Baseball Reference's Championship Leverage Index, Chourio's at-bat against Mason Miller in Game 2 was 171 times as important as the average plate appearance, in terms of its impact on the chances that the Brewers would win the World Series. Ashby didn't have any showdown so pivotal. However, he faced 19 batters in plate appearances with a Championship LI ranging from 10 to 41, and the Padres went 2-for-17 with two walks in those spots. What's also becoming increasingly clear is the level of extreme trust that Murphy has in Ashby. Whether the Brewers need a key out against a left-handed hitter, someone to escape a late-inning jam, or a reliever capable of covering multiple innings, Ashby has shown he can handle the assignment. With the Los Angeles Dodgers waiting in the NLCS, Milwaukee will need more of that. The Brewers face a much different challenge against Los Angeles, and their bullpen will once again be a major part of the equation. Ashby's regular-season numbers were impressive, and his NLDS performance only reinforced his value. If Milwaukee is going to keep this postseason run alive, he'll have to keep up one of the great reliever seasons in the history of a team who's had more than their share of good ones. View full article

Image courtesy of Denis Poroy-Imagn Images While Tuesday night’s Game 3 loss is far from the end of Milwaukee’s season, it highlighted something that has plagued this team for multiple years now. The Brewers have had plenty of opportunities to score throughout this NLDS. The problem is that they haven’t been able to consistently turn those opportunities into runs, and that can be a fatal problem in October. Over the course of the regular season, there was no better team in baseball with runners in scoring position than the Brew Crew. Their .797 OPS in those situations led the league, and they consistently found ways to capitalize when they had an opportunity to put runs on the board. But the postseason has been a different story. Through three games against the Padres in the NLDS, Milwaukee is just 6-for-23 with runners in scoring position. A .261 batting average in those situations (by itself) isn’t all that bad, especially over such a small sample size. Too few runs are resulting from those hits, though. The Brewers have left 27 runners on base through the first three games of this series. They’ve obviously been able to win two of those three, but they’ve also scored no more than four runs in any of them. All three games have been decided by one run, which makes every missed opportunity that much more significant. The epitome of it all came Tuesday night, when William Contreras managed a hit with a runner on second—but the Padres kept it on the infield and the run didn't come home. In last year’s NLDS, Milwaukee took the first two games against the Cubs and looked like a team that would be extremely difficult to knock out. They came through in clutch situations and looked like a force to be reckoned with. Then came Games 3 and 4. The Brewers went a combined 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position in those two contests, and the Cubs forced a decisive Game 5. Milwaukee went 0-for-3 with runners in scoring position in that game, but still managed to get the job done and advance to the NLCS. That’s where their inability to consistently convert those opportunities finally caught up with them. Against the Dodgers, the Brewers went just 1-for-16 with runners in scoring position across the four-game series. They were swept, bringing a disappointing end to what had been a great season. Milwaukee was the National League’s No. 1 seed that year, just like it is this season, but by the time the NLCS rolled around, it certainly didn’t feel like it. Every postseason is different, and this Brewers team has already shown that it can win games without consistently piling up runs. But if Milwaukee wants this year to be different, it’s going to have to start converting scoring chances. The margin for error in the postseason is incredibly slim. That’s been apparent throughout these first three games against San Diego. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has done an excellent job of keeping the team in these games, while Jackson Chourio provided some fireworks in Game 2. Those things have helped the Brewers take a 2-1 series lead, despite leaving a significant number of runners on base. It’s worth pointing out that San Diego hasn’t exactly been great in those situations, either. The Padres are just 4-for-21 with runners in scoring position through the first three games, which has kept Milwaukee from paying a much bigger price for its own struggles. But Milwaukee can’t count on that continuing. If the Brewers are going to advance to the NLCS (and hopefully make an even deeper run from there), they’re going to need more than dominant pitching and the occasional big swing. At some point, the offense is going to have to start making the most of the opportunities it creates. That was one of the biggest strengths of this team during the regular season. It’s also been one of its biggest weaknesses in recent postseason history. The Brewers are still in a very good position, and Tuesday’s loss certainly doesn’t mean their season is in danger of falling apart. But the longer they continue to leave runners stranded, the more difficult they’re making things for themselves. View full article

Image courtesy of David Frerker-Imagn Images Today is a new day. Tuesday night’s loss is in the past, and the Milwaukee Brewers have another chance to secure their spot in the NLCS tonight. In order for that to happen, though, certain players are going to have to play an important role. Whether it’s getting the offense going, shutting down the Padres late, or simply making the routine plays, the Brewers need some of their key players to step up. Here are four who need to do exactly that in Game 4 if Milwaukee wants to end the series tonight. Brice Turang After struggling mightily during the 2025 postseason, Turang finds himself in a similar spot once again through the first three games of this NLDS. He started the series with an 0-for-10 at the plate, with just one walk to his name. However, Turang’s final two plate appearances last night might have been exactly what he needed to get himself going. In the seventh inning, he reached on a bloop single into the outfield, which is about as classic a slump-buster as you can find. Then, in the ninth, he worked a six-pitch walk against Michael King. Neither plate appearance was spectacular, but getting on base twice late in the game could be enough to help Turang turn things around. San Diego will start right-hander Walker Buehler in Game 4, and while the sample size is extremely small, Turang has had some success against him. In five career plate appearances, he’s 1-for-4 with a triple and a walk. Tonight feels like the night Turang finally comes through for this Brewers offense. Garrett Mitchell Through the first three games of the series, Mitchell has gone 2-for-11 at the plate. That’s not horrible, in such a small sample size. But there’s one number that stands out: six of his nine outs have come via the strikeout. That’s not going to cut it for a player who’s been hitting right behind the heart of Milwaukee’s lineup against right-handed pitching. If anything, too, the numbers undersell his struggles. He's looked overmatched in several key at-bats. With Buehler getting the start for San Diego tonight, there’s a good chance Pat Murphy will once again slot Mitchell into that same spot in the order. If the Brewers’ best hitters can get on base, Mitchell is going to have opportunities to drive them in. It’s time for him to take advantage of them. Like Turang, Mitchell has also had some success against Buehler in a very small sample. He’s gone 1-for-3 against the right-hander, while also drawing a pair of walks. Buehler won't work all that deep, though. Mitchell needs to cash in against the San Diego bullpen if the chance comes. He's unlikely to see Yuki Matsui for a third time in this series, but he could see Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, or Jason Adam for a second time—or even Bradgley Rodriguez for a third. He's gotten his looks. It's time to get his licks. Name Matsui Morejon Ray Adam King Miller Morgan Musgrove Pivetta Rodriguez Vasquez Buehler Peralta Contreras XX X XX X XXX X XX X Sanchez X Vaughn X X Bauers XX X XX X XXX X XX X Turang XXX X XX XXX X XX X Pratt X X X XXX XX XX Ortiz X X XX XX Hamilton XXX X Chourio X XX X XXX X XX XXX Mitchell XX X X XX X XX XX Lara X X X Frelick XX XXX X XX Yelich XXX XX XXX X XX X Trevor Megill The Brewers’ closer hasn’t pitched since Game 2 on Sunday, and with an off day coming before a potential Game 5 on Friday, the odds are pretty good that Pat Murphy is going to get him into this game at some point. Megill pitched extremely well in the first two games of the series. He earned the save in Game 1 before picking up the win in Game 2, throwing 2 1/3 combined scoreless innings along the way. Both of those appearances came in the ninth inning, but Milwaukee could be a little more creative with how they use him tonight. If the Brewers have a tight game in the seventh or eighth inning with the top of San Diego’s order coming up, don’t be surprised if Megill trots out of the bullpen a little earlier than usual. This is the postseason. There’s no reason to save your best reliever for a save situation if the highest-leverage spot is setting up the guy throwing the ninth. Besides, Abner Uribe did work in Game 3, so he might be down in Game 4. Megill might be asked for six outs, or at least to provide a bridge to a closeout by Logan Henderson (who's on his throw day and might be available in relief). Cooper Pratt The 22-year-old shortstop has been fine at the plate through the first three games of the NLDS, going 3-for-11 with three singles. He hasn't exactly been a difference-maker offensively, but he also hasn't been a problem. Defensively, however, it’s been a different story. Pratt played some strong defense at shortstop during the regular season, but he’s already committed a pair of throwing errors in this series. Unfortunately, the second one came at a particularly costly time last night, allowing the game-winning insurance run to score. Pratt's a young player playing in his first postseason, and one costly throw doesn’t erase everything he did during the regular season. Nor was all the fault on that play his; Jake Bauers could (and probably should) have picked it. But Milwaukee needs more from their shortstop defensively tonight. The Brewers are one win away from the NLCS. If they want to get there tonight, they’re going to need contributions from plenty of different players. Turang and Mitchell need to find a way to get the offense going. Megill needs to be ready whenever his number is called, and Pratt needs to make the routine plays at short. Do those things, and Milwaukee has a very good chance to put this series away tonight. View full article

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-Imagn Images After a couple of stressful but exciting NLDS games over the weekend, the Milwaukee Brewers sit just one game away from winning the series against the San Diego Padres. With Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson taking the hill for Milwaukee in the first two games, the team had a crystal-clear plan for those contests, but there was some uncertainty about who would get the ball for Tuesday night’s matchup. As it turns out, it’ll be right-hander Dustin May. It’s an interesting decision, considering May owns a 5.65 ERA over 10 starts since being acquired from St. Louis at the trade deadline. But clearly, Pat Murphy has a plan in place. So, how should the Brewers utilize their pitching staff in Game 3, as they try to secure a spot in the NLCS? Dustin May Sets the Tone Although May worked deep into the game in each of his two regular-season starts against the Padres, he's likely to be on a short leash for this one. The key will be for Murphy to get him out of the game without allowing damage, while giving himself a path from the first pitching change to the final out. That means striking a delicate balance. The way the first two games played out suggests that Murphy is comfortable leaning heavily on his bullpen. Misiorowski threw just four innings in Game 1, while Henderson made it through five in Game 2 on just 72 pitches. That means Milwaukee has gotten plenty of work from its bullpen already, but it also means its top arms have not been completely overextended. If May can give the Brewers four solid innings, that should be enough to get the game into the hands of the pitchers Murphy trusts most. If the offense provides an early margin for error and May is pitching well, letting him go through the order twice is fine. Otherwise, getting him out after 13 batters faced or so—after the first half of the second turn, where the Padres lineup suddenly turns from leaning toward right-handed bats to left-handed ones—would be wiser. Where Do the Lefties Fit? Let’s say May gets through three innings. What happens then? We could see Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan, or Kyle Harrison make their first appearance of the series. I initially thought Gasser would be the Game 3 starter, and I’m guessing the team's optimal plan now hands him the ball in Game 4 (if needed). But if Tuesday’s game is tight and there's a lead to protect, he could be the bridge through the middle innings. If the opportunity to seal the series is less clear (or if the matchups just fall right and the skipper prefers to keep Gasser ready for a start on Wednesday), Drohan or Harrison could also give Milwaukee two or three innings before the Brewers turn things over to their late-inning arms. Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill each appeared in each of the first two games, so ideally, Murphy would get through Game 3 without going to all three again. At the very least, they'll be limited to one "up" in this one. You won't see Ashby come in to finish one inning and then pitch the next, as well. If May can get through three and one of the swingman lefties can give Milwaukee three innings, the Brewers would be in a strong position to finish the game without completely draining the bullpen. Who Gets the Ball Late? Let’s say everything goes according to plan and the Brewers get 6+ innings from May and another pitcher. Whom does Murphy go to, if he wants to avoid (say) Uribe for one game? Antonio Senzatela deserved better than he got in Game 1, and the Brewers are right to like the way he matches up against some of the righty bats at the top of the San Diego lineup. If there's any slack in the rope, though, Game 3 could be Chad Patrick's time to shine. He's been a bit erratic and he's not an ideal fit against any of the Padres' key bats, but Patrick is an important cog in the team's pitching machine. He's capable of giving them length, just as the lefties we expect to see in the middle of the game are. The Padres are running a deep position-player roster and have been aggressive about pinch-hitting to gain the platoon advantage. If they swing from their lefty supporting cast to their right-handed one when some southpaw takes over in the middle innings, Patrick could be Murphy's countermove, against batters locked into their places. Who Finishes the Game? If Trevor Megill is available in the ninth, that’s the guy. It’s entirely possible Megill doesn’t pitch in Game 3. It’s also possible he’s used earlier in the game, depending on how things play out. But he's Milwaukee’s closer for a reason. The one thing to keep in mind is that he's seen the top half of the San Diego lineup already in the series. Ideally, Murphy would find a way to work him in against the portions of the Padres corps who haven't seen him since August, or even before that. Realistically, though DL Hall has earned the skipper's trust, Megill, Uribe and Ashby are the candidates to close out a win. In a perfect world, you keep your powder dry for the balance of the series—but if there's a chance to end the series with three more outs, Murphy won't entrust it to a lesser light. The Brewers have a chance to sweep the Padres tonight and advance to the NLCS. If they’re going to get it done, the pitching staff is going to have to pull its weight. With the way Murphy has managed his pitching staff throughout this series, there are plenty of different ways he can make that happen. View full article

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect We’ve officially made it. Game 1 of the National League Division Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres is right around the corner, and the importance of getting off to a strong start can’t be overstated. Whichever team comes out on top will capture some early momentum in the series, while the losing team will immediately find itself playing from behind. Neither club wants to put itself in that position. It can be nigh impossible to recover from an early deficit in a short playoff series. The Padres are coming off a dominant Wild Card performance and played excellent baseball down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Brewers are well-rested after earning a bye through the first round and will be looking to take advantage of that extra time off. If Milwaukee is going to get the job done in Game 1, this is how it might go.. 1. Let Jacob Misiorowski Do His Thing Obviously, it starts with Jacob Misiorowski. The soon-to-be NL Cy Young winner gives Milwaukee a huge advantage on the mound, and if he pitches anything like he did during his previous matchup against San Diego, the Brewers will have a great chance to take Game 1. Misiorowski made one start against the Padres during the regular season, taking the mound against them on May 13. He threw seven scoreless innings while striking out 10 batters, completely shutting down San Diego’s lineup. Of course, replicating that kind of performance against the same team in the postseason is easier said than done. The Padres have plenty of talented hitters, and they'll have another opportunity to make adjustments after seeing Misiorowski earlier in the year. Still, if there’s any pitcher capable of putting together another dominant performance, it’s him. His last start came on Sunday, meaning the extra time off during the Wild Card round shouldn't disrupt his normal routine. He should be well-positioned to take the ball and give Milwaukee a strong start, and presumably, there will be fewer constraints on him in terms of in-game workload now that the stakes have risen. The Brewers don't need Misiorowski to throw a complete game, but getting six or seven strong innings out of their ace would put them in position to win. If he can keep the Padres' offense quiet early, Milwaukee can focus on finding a few timely runs and letting its pitching staff do the rest. 2. Manufacture Some Runs, the Good Ol' Fashioned Way Because Misiorowski is on the mound, I think Milwaukee's offensive approach could look a little different in Game 1. In theory, this shouldn't be a game where the Brewers need to score a ton of runs to win. Obviously, that depends on how he performs, but if he's able to deliver the kind of outing we're expecting, a few runs could be enough to get the job done. Because of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see Milwaukee lean into a small-ball approach and look for ways to manufacture offense, rather than relying on extra-base hits. That could mean moving runners over with sacrifice bunts, being aggressive on the basepaths, or even breaking out a hit-and-run or squeeze play in the right situation. These aren't always the most exciting ways to score runs, but they can be extremely effective when every baserunner matters. Crucially, the Brewers have the personnel to make that approach work. Milwaukee laid down 37 sacrifice bunts during the regular season and stole 162 bases. Both marks ranked fifth in Major League Baseball, highlighting just how much this team can do to put pressure on opposing defenses. The Brewers have built an identity around being aggressive, creating opportunities, and forcing opponents to make plays. In a postseason game where one mistake can change everything, that style of baseball can be especially valuable. I'm not suggesting Milwaukee should abandon its usual offensive approach or start bunting every time somebody reaches base. However, if the Brewers have an opportunity to move a runner into scoring position or take an extra base, they need to be willing to make it happen. Pat Murphy should have plenty of confidence in his team's ability to manufacture runs, and Game 1 could be the perfect opportunity to lean into that strength. 3. Don't Be Afraid to Turn to the Bullpen The final piece of the puzzle is riding the hot hand on the mound. It's entirely possible Misiorowski shoves for seven or eight innings, giving Milwaukee exactly the kind of start it needs. It's also possible Murphy wants to be a little more cautious with his ace, keeping his workload in mind with the possibility of another start in Game 5 and the hoped-for eventuality of a start in the next round. Either way, the bullpen will play an important role in determining the outcome of this game. Fortunately for Milwaukee, its relievers should be well-rested after the bye in the Wild Card round. That gives Murphy some flexibility when it comes to navigating the later innings, especially if the Brewers have a lead to protect. Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe are obviously the biggest names to watch in high-leverage situations, but neither has been asked to work much more than an inning at a time during the regular season. That's understandable over the course of a 162-game schedule, but the postseason is a different animal. If Milwaukee needs six outs from one of their top relievers to secure a win, Murphy shouldn't hesitate to make that move. We saw the Philadelphia Phillies attempt a nine-out save with Jhoan Duran in Game 1 of their Wild Card series against the Atlanta Braves. That plan didn't work out, and I'm certainly not suggesting the Brewers need to push one of their relievers that far. However, there's a difference between overworking a bullpen arm and recognizing the importance of a particular game. While Game 1 isn't a must-win, it's absolutely a set-the-tone game, and Milwaukee should manage its pitching staff accordingly. If that means getting multiple innings from Megill, Uribe, or someone like Aaron Ashby, so be it. Murphy should be willing to ride whoever has the hot hand and give his team the best possible chance to close things out. The Brewers have the advantage of entering the series with a rested bullpen, and they should use that to their benefit. If the game is there for the taking in the late innings, Milwaukee can't afford to hold anything back simply because a reliever isn't accustomed to working more than three outs. This should be an extremely entertaining series between two red-hot teams, and it all starts with Game 1. The Padres are playing some excellent baseball, and Milwaukee will have their hands full trying to slow them down. However, the Brewers have the starting pitching, offensive versatility, and bullpen depth to make things difficult for San Diego. If Misiorowski can deliver a strong outing, Milwaukee can manufacture a few runs with its aggressive approach at the plate and on the basepaths, and Murphy can get the most out of his bullpen in the later innings, I like the Brewers' chances of coming out on top. It's not going to be easy, but that's the recipe for success in Game 1. View full article

The Brewers and Padres are coming off very different regular seasons, but both are playing some of their best baseball at the perfect time. Here’s what to expect in the NLDS. View full video