4/3/08 Brewers (Bush) at Cubs (Dempster): 1:20 PM CDT

[bacon06]

I'm loving Jason Kendall...after the piece they just had on him really makes me more thankful we have him. You think Johnny Estrada left the hotel before 8 to get to the park? NO WAY!!

Estrada probably had to leave his hotel by before 8 to make it to the park by game time.

 

[Getpaddled]

must have been a road game

[craigharmann]

Apparently the Bucks fans travel well....they were all out there in the desert, too. Maybe wanted to get away from all the snow?

[craigharmann]

The interaction between Craig and Davey is just awkward...I figured that this year it might be a bit better....The interaction I've seen so far is just uncomfortable.

[Brewtacular]

alright...time for the game and time for me to avoid the interweb til i can watch on my dvr. Nobody look up my information online, call my cell phone, and yell the score at me. If you get my work# its ok though!!!

 

Go Bush..you sir are the decider..operation Cubbi meltdown intact.

[sheethead]

I like over 9 again. And I like the Brewers being dogs again. I'd like a sweep more than anything that's going to happen today. If Bush gives 6 innings, I like the chances of another Brewers win.

[trwi7]

Anybody check out the Reds/D'Backs game? Cueto is perfect through 5 innings with 8 K's and even with all of those K's he's thrown less than 60 pitches.

[GoudaBrew]

I was just about to mention that. Darren Sutton talked about it, so I figured I wouldn't be jinxing it. So glad I started him!

[Getpaddled]

with rain comming and wind blowing in... I didnt pick over or under... just took the dog http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[RyDogg66]

Lineups -

 

Weeks

Gwynn

Fielder

Braun

Hall

Hart

Hardy

Bush

Kendall

 

Cubs -

 

Soriano

Theriot

Lee

Ramirez

Fukudome

Derosa

Soto

Pie

Dempster

[sheethead]

Whoops, did someone say perfect?

[sheetswannabe]

Cuerto gave up a homer

[GoudaBrew]

It never fails. I blame Sutton.

[ELCABALLO45]

I would also like to say.. You can't stop the NATS you can only hope the contain them.

[rickmanningfan]

White Sox had a no hitter going through 6, too. Indians still only have two through 8.

[sheetswannabe]

Play Ball!!!

[ELCABALLO45]

what are they OOOO about? That wasn't even close

[sheetswannabe]

8 pitch walk...thank you Richie!

[BowMeHunter]

Go rickie! Boooo Chub fans!

[ELCABALLO45]

Great Eye Rickie!

[sheetswannabe]

I am really starting to like Gwynn

[rluzinski]

rlunziski, I believe you are incorrect about making up the projection gap. I noticed this last year and it makes more sense when you think about it. If you figure out the expected wins for the Brewers in this series given each teams projected records and the home field to the Cubs it at worst for the Crew would work out to only say 1.3 wins. Which means that if they lost today they'd only gain 0.7 wins over projections. And if they sweep it still only 1.7 wins and I think the closest I saw them was 2 games. If you also calculate how much ground the Cubs have lost I think it works out then only if we sweep.

 

Depending on the projections you use, the Brewers probably haven't completely made it up yet but a sweep will put them ahead. As you pointed out, it's not just the Brewers beating their projection but also the Cubs not meeting theirs. According to some of the more popular projection systems, the Cubs were expected to finish the season with a 3.2 game lead over the 2nd place Brewers in the NL Central:

 

http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2008/03/brewers-chances-of-winning-central.html

 

With the Cubs being the home team and being the statistically stronger one (if only very slightly), they have something like a 56% chance of winning each game (yes, I'm ignoring pitching matchups). After two games, here's the projected standings for the two teams:

 

Cubs: 1.12 - .88 (.24 game lead)

Brewers: .88 - 1.12

 

The Cubs have an expected lead of .24 but are actually behind the Brewers by 2 games. They are currently 2.24 games behind their projected lead.

 

After 3 games, the projections have the Cubs and the Brewers record as:

 

Cubs: 1.68 - 1.32 (.36 game lead)

Brewers: 1.32 - 1.68

 

If the Cubs lose today and get swept, they'll be 3.36 games behind their projection and the Brewers will be the NL Central favorites. A Cubs win today puts them 1.24 games behind their projection and still the favorites.

[ELCABALLO45]

Gwynn!

[sheetswannabe]

fielder looks ridiculous...Baggy pants, get them a lil tighter man.... He looks like the Barrelman

[Getpaddled]

I cant hear Bill but I can hear the fans... I think they have the wrong plug in he wrong hole somewhere