Breaking Down The 2027 Milwaukee Brewers ZiPS Projections

Earlier this week, FanGraphs began unveiling its 2027 ZiPS projections, starting with the World Series champion Milwaukee Brewers.

After winning a franchise-record 103 regular-season games this year, ZiPS forecasts the Brewers at around 90 wins in 2027. That might sound pessimistic, but it’s a better projection than most systems have given Milwaukee in recent seasons. Furthermore, last year’s Brewers reached a high-percentile outcome, and projections are designed to predict what’s most likely to happen, not what could happen.

The Brewers are set to bring back most of their championship-winning roster, and emerging prospects from their stacked farm system will debut throughout the season. ZiPS likes that depth because it gives Milwaukee a high floor in 2027.

In the starting lineup, ZiPS projects six hitters for above-average offense (OPS+ above 100) and at least 2.1 fWAR from every position but first base and DH. It expects some regression for many of the Brewers’ best hitters – Jackson Chourio’s 118 OPS+, below his career-high 130 mark from this year, leads the team – but also believes Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick, and Luis Lara will trend closer to league-average hitters after rough seasons.

On the pitching staff, ZiPS expects another All-Star-caliber year from Jacob Misiorowski and quality innings from Logan Henderson. Robert Gasser, Kyle Harrison, Shane Drohan, and Coleman Crow are projected for league-average performances in swing roles. It expects Abner Uribe to be Milwaukee’s best reliever and continued strong work from Trevor Megill and Aaron Ashby.

However, ZiPS also thinks the Brewers could use a few reinforcements. It expects modest innings totals from Henderson, Harrison, and Shane Drohan, and the bullpen thins quickly if Milwaukee trades Megill this winter. To repeat last year’s success, they’ll need more innings than ZiPS thinks they currently have in-house. After Jake Bauers’s departure to sign a four-year deal with the Boston Red Sox, a replacement left-handed bat would boost their first base and DH projections.

After winning the World Series, the Brewers have more short-term financial flexibility to raise their ceiling with more opportunistic signings. A veteran starter like Sonny Gray or a left-handed first baseman like Nathaniel Lowe might be fits on short-term deals. However, the Brewers always lean heavily on their young talent, as their model expects more from those players than most public projections. In their first championship season, they got plenty of value from Misiorowski, Henderson, Cooper Pratt, and Lara. Jesus Made, Tyson Hardin, and Blake Burke could emerge as role players by the end of 2027.

ZiPS, short for the sZymborski Projection System, is developed and maintained by Dan Szymborski. The system studies a player’s past performance, injury history, and the league aging curve to make projections. Depending on a player’s age, it examines their last three to four seasons, weighing the most recent years more heavily. The full Brewers projections are available at FanGraphs.

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