27 Things That Will Decide the 2026 World Series: 3rd Inning

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Piece by piece, like a manager wading through the 27 outs it takes to win a ball game, we're getting you ready and bringing you right up to first pitch of the 2026 World Series. If you missed the introduction and first inning or the second, please check them out. Now, though, we turn to what's next.

7. The Rasmussen Dilemma
Ostensibly, the Rays will give the ball to ace Drew Rasmussen in Game 1 Friday. That's five days after he started Game 5 of the ALCS on Sunday, so the default expectation would be that he'd climb the hill on four days' rest. Yet, as Ken Rosenthal wrote at The Athletic Thursday, the Rays seem to have seriously considered holding him back for Game 2. To create any meaningful chance that a World Series could end without your ace pitching twice seems ludicrous, but it's less so than it seems.

During the regular season, Rasmussen had his turn skipped in the rotation twice—once in April, and again around the All-Star break. That was one mechanism by which the Rays kept the innings count under control for a pitcher who has had three major elbow surgeries and had never before pitched this much in one year. Another is this: of his 28 starts on something like regular rest, only seven were on four days. Rasmussen pitched 18 times on five days' rest and thrice on six days', meaning that four days is practically short rest for him at this stage of his career. This isn't some radical departure from modern norms, or the Rays pushing boundaries; the Brewers did much the same with Jacob Misiorowski this year.

In addition to putting Rasmussen on a standard schedule (for him) in his first start, shifting him to Game 2 would put him on five days' rest for Game 6: the off day as the Series moves from Milwaukee to St. Petersburg; the three games played there; and the off days as it the whole party comes back to Wisconsin. Of course, there's no guarantee that the Series makes it to five or six games, but it's significantly more likely to go at least five than to stretch to six, so the stakes of this call are high. Rasmussen's velocity was fine during the ALCS, and he dominated the Guardians in Game 5, but there was just enough erosion in his movement (particularly on the sinker and changeup) in his last two starts to raise some worry about fatigue. It's easy to understand why the Rays are at least considering sliding him back, but doing so would be a massive risk.

8. Here Comes the Crowd
It didn't feel like the crowd at The Ueck materially affected things in the NLCS, and even against the Padres, there were only a few odd moments (during the team's winning rally in the bottom of the ninth of Game 2, for instance) when they became a factor. That could and should change in this series, against a team with a bit less experience in the noisy cauldrons of opposing ballparks in October. One reason Rosenthal cited for the Rays considering moving Rasmussen back to Game 2 (and starting Nick Martinez in Game 1) is that it would allow Tampa to use Freddy Peralta at home for Game 3, rather than at his old stomping grounds. Peralta himself was stomped the last time he visited, with the Mets in mid-July, and the Milwaukee crowd is going to be intimidating during this set. That should break something the Brewers' way. They not only have home-field advantage in the Series, but will have the bigger advantage of the two teams based on playing at home, when they do. The Rays are fairly well-built for Tropicana Field, but the crowd there will be peppered with Brewers fans and much less hostile to the visitors than the one at The Ueck will be to the Rays.

If Peralta does pitch in Milwaukee, he might throw a Misiorowski-caliber fastball or two, given how well the Rays have trained him to fly down the mound and the velocity he's tapped into as a result. However, it feels like that matchup would be bad for him, anyway. Brewers fans well remember how Peralta wobbled under the pressure of a harsh Wrigley Field crowd last October. They might not be as ruthless to an old friend as Cubs fans were to a familiar foe, but they'll know they can get to him. When Peralta tries to do too much, bad things tend to happen, even if the velocity readings become increasingly impressive. In general, the Milwaukee crowd will be a factor in the series; the mania around the team and throughout the state will find its way between the white lines.

9. Hit Me: Get to 21, and Maybe Keep Going
Some difficult matchups lie ahead for the Brewers pitching staff, against a Rays lineup that has been surprisingly formidable lately. Their top three hitters are known commodities, but they can also get dangerous contributions from several platoon arrangements further down, and if Pat Murphy tries to avoid bad matchups through aggressive, early bullpen moves, he'll pay a price late in the series, be it due to matchup fatigue or sheer tiredness on the part of individual hurlers. He needs length from his starters—the one thing he hasn't gotten from his team over the first two rounds of the postseason.

For Misiorowski and Logan Henderson, the key number is 21. If they get through the top trio (Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero) a third time in each start, they'll take pressure off the bullpen, both within their own games and across the series. Understanding that whatever they get from starters in Games 3 and 4 will be gravy, the Brewers need a plan to avoid having Díaz, Aranda and Caminero take 12 or 13 plate appearances each against relievers over the first four games.

Rays fan and saber-savvy social media maven Sandy Kazmir (that, at least, being their nom de Bluesky) put together a handy-dandy matchup summary for the series, with expected weighted on-base averages for every combination of batter and pitcher from the two teams' League Championship Series rosters. These are based on regressed platoon splits and simple estimates, but they're a valuable tool for spotting good and bad matchups, from either perspective.

The splashes of red at the top of the Rays hitters' boards are a good reminder that with Díaz and Caminero batting right-handed and usually mashing lefties, some of the Brewers' best arms (Aaron Ashby, DL Hall and Robert Gasser, especially) will be a bit harder to leverage than they were against the Dodgers. The Rays have several platoon options they can use to punish Murphy if the wrong pitcher gets locked into the game at a key moment, too. Finding the right pocket to deploy certain relievers is one important challenge; keeping those relievers from having to pitch every night is an equally essential one. If Misiorowski and Henderson can at least take a third trip through the top of a top-heavy lineup, they'll make Murphy's job much easier for the balance of the series. If either or both is chased early due to a high pitch count or a crooked number on the scoreboard, the Brewers might be in trouble in a way that reaches beyond the game in question.

That was just the first trip through the lineup card. Much more lies ahead. Check back in later today for the fourth installment in this series. In the meantime, sign up as a member of our community. It's free, and gives you the right to comment and post in our forums, whether right after reading an article or during the games and the offseason ahead.