27 Things That Will Decide the 2026 World Series: 4th Inning

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We're cruising through our nine-part World Series preview, digging deeper than a one-piece, 30,000-foot overview could go. Hopefully, you've gotten a chance to review Parts 1, 2 and 3 already, but if you're a bit behind, no problem. We're just getting into the middle innings. Catch up, then come on back and buckle up. It's time to go fast.

10. Showdown: Chandler Simpson vs. Jacob Misiorowski
As compelling as the matchup between the Brewers' flamethrowing ace and the game's fastest swinger is, an even more interesting one might lurk further down the lineup card. Believe it or not, no batter is on time for the fastball more often than the slow-swinging but fleet-footed Chandler Simpson. What does that mean? Essentially this: Simpson is always in motion, and though he's not maximizing his bat speed with a slappy swing and jailbreak move with his lower half, he's starting early enough to catch up to most pitchers' heaters.

Of course, it's one thing to be on time for most fastballs, and another to be on time for Misiorowski's. Because Misiorowski throws hard with pretty much everything, though, he doesn't induce hitters to swing late as often as you would guess, given the sheer velocity of his fastball and the exceptional extension that makes that heat play up. He gets more of his value, instead, from getting batters to swing under the ball. They commit themselves to being early, but the only way they can hold enough in reserve to do anything at all with the rest of his arsenal while starting that early and moving as fast as they can is to flatten their swings. He throws it, therefore, right over the barrel.

That (probably) won't work with Simpson. In addition to being on time for 90% of the four-seam fastballs he sees from right-handed pitchers (a rate bested only by JJ Bleday), Simpson gets on plane with about 80% of the heaters on which he's on time. The average, in that regard, is just 61%; Simpson is well above average both at being on time and at getting on top of the rising heater when he is. When these two saw each other in early April, they wrestled to a draw. Simpson walked in his first at-bat, and didn't swing at all until the third pitch of his second. When he did, he hit it straight into the ground, but he reached on an infield single. The third time up, in the sixth inning, Misiorowski got the last laugh, with two whiffs (one on a fastball; one on a slider) before a weak pop-up on a 1-2 offering.

That wasn't the final form of Misiorowski, either. He was throwing just 98-99 by the end of that start. On the other hand, nor was it the best version of Simpson, who has become increasingly pesky over time and took over the ALCS at some points with his speed's terroristic effects on the usually sturdy Guardians. Though Simpson is unlikely to strike a telling blow against Misiorowski, if he comes up with a chance to do damage by merely extending an inning or bringing home a runner already in scoring position, it'll be a tense at-bat.

Say Simpson gets on base. That would be when the real fun begins. As we've discussed recently, Misiorowski is all but impossible to steal against. His pickoff move isn't exceptional, but he pays attention to runners. For such a hard thrower, he's quick to the plate. He also gets so many whiffs that teams and runners are reluctant to test him. All that taken together, he thwarts the running game very well. Simpson, though, is exceptionally aggressive. He stole 46 bases this season. He was also caught 14 times. He took daring leads, enough to force three balks via pitchers exceeding their allowed number of disengagements within an at-bat. He tries to drive you crazy over there. He's not exceptional at getting good leads and clean jumps, but he won't be as intimidated by Misiorowski as other runners have been.

11. Work for Your Leads, Get Good Reads: Running on the Rays
Here's the quicksheet on the Rays' strategy for preventing stolen bases: stop runners from getting on base in the first place. That's it; that's their whole plan. According to Baseball Reference, opponents had only 1,979 stolen base opportunities (plate appearances with a runner on first or second and the next base open) against them this year, fewest in the majors. The Brewers allowed the fourth-fewest such opportunities, at 2,114.

To give you an idea of how disparate these clubs are in terms of actually slowing down the opponents on the bases, though, the Rays allowed 60 more steals than Milwaukee did, and caught only three more would-be thieves. Liam Hicks and Nick Fortes each have below-average raw arm strength. Fortes, at least, is accurate, and his exchange is quick—but Hicks is their primary backstop since they acquired him at the trade deadline. The team also has a collection of (especially) second basemen who struggle with receiving throws and quickly applying tags. Richie Palacios, in particular, doesn't get into good positions in front of the base, doesn't let the ball travel the way he should, and ends up unable to get the ball to an incoming runner as soon as he should with some regularity.

They make you work for it. Teams have run very successfully on Drew Rasmussen and Griffin Jax this year, but that's because neither has a good pickoff move and neither is quick to the plate—not because they're inattentive. They'll hold the ball for varied lengths on consecutive pitches. They'll change the height of their leg kick from one pitch to the next. (Reliever Kevin Kelly is especially apt to pull that trick.) And Game 1 starter Nick Martinez, an exceptionally athletic hurler, does have quick feet and a good move to first. They don't give away bases for free.

However, with diligent work and patience, you can find the right opportunities and run against this team. Clubs succeeded at it all year. The Yankees went 3-for-3 in the ALDS, and although José Ramírez got too antsy and was caught twice during the ALCS, the Guardians stole three bases, too. The Brewers have to be a bit conservative, at first. They have to wait for their chances, rather than forcing the issue. The chances will eventually be there, though, and when the right runners are on base, Milwaukee needs the courage to go.

12. The One Strong Aspect of the Brewers' First-Base Defense
Neither team is quite at the end of the spectrum, but the Rays are one of the worst teams in the league at stopping runners once they reach base, while the Brewers are one of the best. One piece of that skill at scuppering steals on the part of Brewers pitchers, however, has surprisingly little to do with the pitchers; William Contreras (an excellent and intimidating thrower, to be sure); or even the good tag work of Brice Turang and Cooper Pratt when covering second.

Andrew Vaughn and Jake Bauers are, for different reasons, poor receivers of throws across the infield on grounders. Nor are either, at this point in their careers, good fielders in terms of range and playmaking around the bag. First base is a weak point in the otherwise stout Milwaukee defense. There's one important exception, though:

He had a regrettable whiff on a pickoff throw earlier this postseason, but most of the time, Bauers has been superb at the snag-and-tag when a hurler throws over to him. That has yielded a few extra outs already this year, and it helps the Brewers staff keep runners close, even when it doesn't erase a runner. Bauers is a good athlete for that position (although that's a bit less true than it was, say, two years ago), and this is one place where it shows up. If the Brewers catch a Rays runner leaning and steal an out at a pivotal point during this series, Bauers is likely to be the key to the play.

Four innings in, and there's still plenty of meat on the bone. Come on back later tonight for the fifth frame, and join our community so you can jump into these conversations—plus our game threads and forums in days and weeks to come.