keephopealive

I completely understand, which is why I said 110 wins, as I think that's what it would take. That's not completely impossible if we stayed relatively healthy. (Once we got Chourio and Vaughn back in early May we played about 108 win ball. More guys should improve than deteriorate.) There have only been four teams to win 110 games, and only the '01 Seattle Mariners have done it since the '27 Yankees, Piniella won Manager of the Year with the Mariners that year. I think that would be rare enough to do it.

Vince got a relatively late start as a head coach as well, as did Harvey Kuenn. They became head coaches at 46 and 51, much younger than Murphy, but both died at 57. Murphy was 64. Harvey looked 64.

Why stop at 3? 110 wins should wrap up number 4 in 2027, right?

Yeah, that is what I meant when I said, he adds particular value now. We still have a really young pitching staff... whether Henderson, Harrison, Priester, Gasser, Crow, Sproat, Drohan, Hardin, no one but Mis will have more than a year's experience in next year's rotation, and Mis himself is just a pup still. I think Contreras keeps those guys together.

Agree on Contreras. I came to roughly the same conclusion in my comment below Matthew's article on Contreras going forward.

The Brewers definitely are ahead of the game with drafting, international signing, minor league development, pitching lab, and picking guys off the scrap heap like Megill, etc. It's not so clear that their trades are so much ahead. Hamilton's October aside, the jury is still out on the Durbin trade, where Durbin just won a Gold Glove, and Harrison is a question mark. Freddy for Williams and Sproat is its own question mark. Ortiz and Hall for Burnes? Not so clear. Gasser was great this October, but he hadn't added too much value before that, whereas Hader has been great. Ruiz hasn't been much of a player. Now, I am thrilled we made these trades because we don't win without Gasser, Hamilton, Hall, even Ortiz, but it's not that these are obvious wins in a vacuum. I wonder how much Stearns bites of the apple have driven things. The Contreras trade is the one that was the real fleece, and it even felt that way at the time. I'd be curious who the brain child behind the trade was. Arnold was GM already. Stearns was there as an advisor, but much like Greg down in Chicago, Stearns really hasn't had the magic tough with the Mets. Stearns and his bites of the apple? He drafted signed Cain, traded for Yeli, drafted Turang, Miz, Ashby, Mitchell, Frelick, and signed Chourio - all great moves, but Arnold has continued with acquiring Contreras, Megill, Vaughn, and Bauers, drafting Pratt, signing Made and Peña. For all we know Arnold was the brains behind Stearns big decisions. Anyway, I personally suspect it's Arnold whose bites have mattered more.

Great article, Matthew. My own comment turned into a mini-article. Lol. If you asked us in early August, no one would say extend because it looked like William was on a two year, maybe even 3 year, decline. Then the resurgence and magical October happened. It's important to keep our heads about this though. We have a shot at another WS next year, and with a young rotation, few older everyday players, and lots of talent coming, probably contenders even beyond. Catcher is our one weak spot where the cupboard is somewhat bare. That increases Contreras value. The fact that Contreras is clearly a leader of the team (emotionally, managing the young staff, etc) also add particular value now, where we couldn't just sign an equivalent WAR guy off the street and expect that same contribution. Contreras has more wear and tear than the typical catcher. He plays a ton of games, and has been catching since he was signed as a 17-year old, probably even before. His brother Willson is probably the most informative aging profile, but Willson moved to C from 3B when he was 20 I think, and had the COVID break. Willson remained productive as a C through his age 32 season, probably even improving on a per game/inning basis, though lowering his workload there over time. He's remained productive as a 1B through his age 34 season. William is better than Willson, though Willson showed a cleaner trajectory of improvement over time, whereas William's bat looked like it was regressing (as was his framing) until the end of the season. William has averaged about 4 WAR the past three seasons (although it's been declining). My guess is that William continues to average roughly 3.5-4 WAR over the next four seasons, and then 2-2.5 WAR after that for the next two seasons after moving away from catching. He'd have role maybe something like Yeli, hopefully more last year than this year. It turns out that, historically at least, that the cost for WAR is lower among catchers. I suspect that some of that is because teams project wear and tear, and so much of the value of catchers is defensive value. But another part is that teams tend to be a bit stupid. They overpay for closers for example and 1B, and underpay 2B, which tells me they still go for flashy stats over things like defense and speed. Anyway, I think Matthew's 24 number is about right. That means that we'll get the intangibles for free. Now we have to be sure that those intangibles are real, and not just part of WS euphoria, e.g., the pitbull personality doesn't wear on people when he or the team is not performing at its best. But I think I'd go for the front-loaded contract with the signing bonus. Pay him big money, when everyone is in WS euphoria. We can extend Turang if we wish as Yeli comes off the books, and Miz or Chourio as Contreras comes off the books. If the owners get any sort of a cap with anything like Bird rights, I don't think signing/extending those guys is absolutely out of the question. As a fan, I wouldn't want to do the deferral. A lot can happen to a small market franchise in 1982, we were (almost) top of the world. Ten years later, we came up short, but lost Molitor because we couldn't/wouldn't pay. 4 years later than that, we were at risk of losing the team if taxpayers didn't pony up for Miller Park. 6 years later than that, we had a new park and were in a new league. 20 years after that we're having to pony up more money for renovations so the team doesn't leave. I just don't want to get into a situation where whoever take control from Attanasio has a complaint about cash flow.

Two things: 1) I'm always amused that sportswriters haven't adjusted to grade inflation. No teachers or professors give these kind of grade distributions anymore. I used to think it was because the traditional media was a bunch of old people, who remembered low grades, now I wonder if sportswriters just did poorly in school 2) I don't quite understand the terms of the grades. Is it absolute level of performance while on the field? Is it relative to expectations? is it overall contribution (weighted by innings, for example)? It just seems hard to give Woodruff and D.L. Hall the same grade, only slightly better than Yoho. Just

I think you could do one for the pitchers too! and defense!

So many guys had multiple big moments. I think I might go with Mitchell's HR robbery against Machado over his Dodger beating HR, which seems crazy.

I get about $125 million without Woody, Senzetala, May, and Bauers. That's about comparable to this year's number. I suspect we let Bauers go, and go in with a Vaughn and Fischer/Burke platoon.

Matthew, this stuff is fantastic. Perfect for a geek like me. Keep the Kool-Aid coming.

This series blows away every other World Series preview that I've read. Actual new information. What an idea!

An entire article on bunts. I love it! Visions of Major League's final AB.

Great article. On to the next inning.