Attacking Hitters More Efficiently is the Greatest Hurdle in Freddy Peralta’s Ascension to an Ace

Freddy Peralta’s first season as the leader of the Brewers’ rotation has been solid in many regards. The 28-year-old’s overall numbers fit that description: a 3.74 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 2.86 SIERA, and 77 DRA-.

That production does not represent the full extent of Peralta’s capabilities, though, and it arguably falls short of expectations for the role he has been assigned on Milwaukee’s pitching staff. The hope was that he could carry the elite form he showcased in the second half of last year – a 2.81 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 6.4 K/BB ratio – into his first season atop the rotation.

Peralta instead resides in the same territory he has occupied for the better part of two-plus years: good, but not elite. One lasting issue preventing him from making that jump is inefficiency.

Peralta is averaging 5 ⅓ innings per start this year, identical to the league average for qualified starting pitchers. His 4.14 pitches per plate appearance is the fourth-highest.

Keeping his pitch count low enough to consistently work deep into games will likely never be one of Peralta’s strong suits. As a high-strikeout pitcher, he will naturally find himself in more deep counts that inflate his pitch totals.

Still, Peralta frequently throws more pitches than necessary, making it an area of his game he can (and must) tighten to elevate his performance. 18% of plate appearances against Peralta this year have gone to a full count. That’s the fifth-highest rate among qualified starters and discernably higher than the league average of 13.9%.

Peralta has been especially inefficient in put-away counts. After getting ahead 0-2 or 1-2, he often wastes bullets by uncorking pitches nowhere close to the strike zone, essentially gifting hitters a free ball.

Even if he ultimately retires the hitter, those unproductive pitches unnecessarily lengthen Peralta’s journey to that out. At worst, they put hitters back into neutral or even favorable counts, which can lead to a hit or walk after what should have been a heavily pitcher-friendly count.

After this point was raised on the latest installment of the Brewer Fanatic Podcast, our own Jake McKibbin did some preliminary research on the subject. According to TruMedia, Peralta throws significantly more non-competitive pitches (pitches at least 18 inches away from the center of the strike zone in any direction) in 0-2 and 1-2 counts than the average hurler.

These misses have resulted in below-average chase (32.8%) and swing (50.2%) rates on two-strike counts with fewer than three balls. Those splits imply two things: Peralta does not tempt hitters to chase with two strikes as often as most pitchers, and hitters know they can wait him out in those counts more than they can most opponents.

Peralta’s last start against the Chicago White Sox was a prime example of wasted pitches derailing an outing.

Tasked with eating innings on a getaway day against the worst lineup in baseball, Peralta labored through a 43-pitch first inning. To his credit, he rebounded over his final four frames, but the tough start limited him to five innings on a day when Pat Murphy was resting his high-leverage relievers and presumably hoped for more out of his best starter.

Peralta made things more challenging by failing to put hitters away in two-strike counts. Pictured below are the locations of his two-strike offerings in that first inning.

That’s far too many fastballs well above the zone with two strikes that do not tempt a hitter to chase. By bringing opponents back into the count, Peralta allowed consecutive singles after getting ahead 0-2 and issued a walk after reaching a 1-2 count.

The ability to relentlessly attack hitters with well-executed pitches in any count is the missing link for Peralta. To fully live up to the expectations that come with his pedigree, experience, and status as the Brewers’ No. 1 starter, he will have to make strides in that area.