Stealofhome

His sprint speed has clearly been lower this year than any other year in the past, even when he was injured. Either he dropped off a cliff or consciously slowed down a step. He's gone from 70-80th percentile for the last 6 years to 48th percentile this year.

I was just thinking that throwing a bat 500 feet in the air with 18+ people running around underneath it is unsafe.

Really good work here pulling these numbers and especially the sync'ed up video. The big difference between the two that I see is the walk rate. Even though Frias had that 11.7% rate in the ACL, he's been right around league average in all three of his appearances so far, but De Paula has had multiple well-above average walk rate performances.

He's so intriguing because his profile is incredibly promising...if he were left-handed. He could be Brandon Belt, Alvin Davis, or Eric Hosmer if so, but there are few minor league players with similar stat lines from the right-handed side. https://cstjohn810.github.io/prospect-comps/?dataset=hitter&id=702726

My MLB comps site lists Tino Martinez as his closest stat comp, but also Brandon Lowe shows up, which might be a closer idea based on size. https://cstjohn810.github.io/prospect-comps/?dataset=hitter&id=815304

Hopefully at the very least he can be a make contact/productive out spark to limit the current RISP woes.

More fun with power and speed prospects. The 6 players with zISO greater than 1.2, Speed Score at least 65, minimum 500 minor league PA: Greg Vaughn Ken Griffey Jr. Andruw Jones Javier Baez Grant Desme Fernando Tatis

There are currently 5 players age 23 or younger, minimum 500 minor league PA, zISO greater than 0.85 and speed score at least 55: Braylon Payne Caleb Bonemer Jackson Chourio James Wood Joshua Baez

Very good piece and tons of great analysis here! Shameless plug but I have a work in progress prospect comp site I'm working on based on BB/K/ISO/Speed and Fischer is one of the players I've been watching to make sure the comps make sense. The first player listed on there is Chris Dennis. Schwarber and Paul Goldschmidt make an appearance as well. A little more detail on my recent blog entry.

Is there a good in depth article about their succession planning and business practice? We're reading turn the ship around at work and it feels like some similar concepts in the brewers org where they have decision making at the right level and building in a plan to replace yourself with your assistant or deputy

I fixed the ACL issue and updated the site, so Frias is now getting credit for his domination at that level. His profile fits somewhere between Shawn Greene and Trevor Craport.

That ISO represents bat speed and it is so crucial to having any success in the Major Leagues, especially.

That gives me an idea to add in a most similar productive player feature for those players with no good comps, or some way of discovering where they might need to improve to give them a better shot. O'Rae is 1.1, -0.83, -0.61, 66.7 So walks a lot, doesn't strike out, has well below average power, and good but not elite game speed (surprising, given his stolen base totals, might be worth a closer look). Billy Hamilton has an 88.7 speed score, Chandler Simpson 76.0. The closest productive hitter comp he has is Michael Brantley (685 score, which is out of 1000, poor). But he had more power. The only players I can find who had an MLB career wRAA greater than 0 and had that little power in the minor leagues are Esix Snead (14 PA), Yefri Perez (3 PA), and Darren Baker (14 PA). But Luis Castillo is right there (again, slightly more power, which is crazy, since he had 28 HR in 15 years), but he did have 370 MLB stolen bases and 3 all-star appearances, though I imagine O'Rae's glove isn't at Castillo's level.

One unfortunate issue I just noticed is that the ACL stats are not getting included properly, so Alexander Frias doesn't get credit for his 2026 line yet.

12 years ago, I built a prospect comparison system called JAVIER on Beyond the Box Score. At this point it's so old, you have to use archive.org to get to the pages. The idea behind it is to use very basic stats (BB%, K%, ISO, and Speed Score) to build a picture of a player and find similar players through the years. The beauty of using these simple stats is that comparisons can extend back to 1978, when Minor League data is readily available. I purchased data from The Baseball Cube and ran a bunch of z-score analysis, league regression, age regression, and Euclidean distance scores to find similar players based on minor league data. The website is published as a Github Page and can be accessed here: https://cstjohn810.github.io/prospect-comps/ The functionality is fairly simple at this point, you just search a player and it will show their likelihood of reaching the MLB, a range of their possible wRAA outcomes, and their top 20 similar players (who are 28+ years old). Then there is a season-by-season breakdown of how they arrived at their particular zBB, zK, zISO, and Speed numbers. Here's the top 5 comps for Jesus Made, for instance: It's just hitters for now but I do have pitching stats and intend to add them in the future. I can also add some more details on calculations and more features to the site as time allows. Anyway enjoy for now and let me know what you think.