Brewers’ Offensive Approach Could Be Key to Taking Control of NLCS

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Throughout the regular season, the Milwaukee Brewers were one of the most disciplined offenses in the major leagues. They led baseball with a .341 on-base percentage and drew the second-most walks of any club. The approach that helped them put together an impressive regular season has carried over into October.

Among all playoff teams, Milwaukee owns the highest on-base percentage, at .363. They’re drawing walks, putting their bats on the ball, and refusing to give opposing pitchers easy outs. It’s an approach that’s served them well all year, and in Game 3, it’s going to have to continue.

The Dodgers turn to left-hander Blake Snell, a two-time Cy Young Award winner who’s been a key piece of their rotation (when healthy) over the last two years. He’s one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, and he’s historically been solid in the postseason. Across 86 1/3 career postseason innings, Snell owns a 3.23 ERA with 107 strikeouts. When he’s on, he can be nearly impossible to hit. But as dominant as Snell can be, he’s also capable of struggling to find the strike zone, and that inconsistency could give the Brewers an opportunity to take advantage.

Snell’s command issues were on full display during his first postseason start in the NLDS. He made it through just 3 2/3 innings, allowing three hits and one earned run. Those numbers might not look particularly concerning, but the five walks he allowed do. That’s a recipe for trouble, especially against a lineup that thrives on working deep counts and capitalizing on mistakes. That’s where Milwaukee has a chance to win the game.

The Brewers don’t need to string together a bunch of hits to put pressure on Snell. If they remain patient, avoid chasing pitches outside the zone, and force him to throw strikes, Milwaukee should have opportunities to get runners on base and put the Dodgers in uncomfortable situations. Of course, being patient doesn't mean watching every pitch go by. The Brewers still need to capitalize if Snell leaves a pitch out over the heart of the plate. But by making him work through at-bats and refusing to give away outs, they can force him to expend more pitches than he'd like.

Milwaukee already showed how effective that approach can be against Los Angeles on Monday. They knocked out Yoshinobu Yamamoto after just 2 2/3 innings of work, forcing the Dodgers to turn to their bullpen much earlier than anticipated. Though known for his efficiency and ability to consistently work deep into games, Yamamoto couldn't survive the Brewers' approach. They fought off pitches, extended at-bats, and made him work for every out.

Snell presents a different challenge. He's more of a wild card, capable of cruising through seven innings or struggling to make it through four, as he did in the NLDS. That unpredictability makes it difficult to know exactly what Milwaukee will get. But if the Brewers can force Snell into another short outing, it could have a significant impact on the game, as well as the rest of the series.

Ideally, Milwaukee would complete the sweep and take the series in four games. Unfortunately, that's probably not the likeliest outcome against a Dodgers team with this much talent. If Los Angeles manages to extend the series, bullpen usage and pitching decisions could become increasingly important. If the Brewers aren't able to complete the sweep, the two teams will have three games over the next three days. Should the series go the distance (which still wouldn't be surprising, given the talent on both sides), they would wind up playing each other five more times over the next six days. That's a lot of baseball in a very short period, and it puts more pressure on both managers to manage their pitching staffs carefully.

For Milwaukee, forcing Snell out of the game early could create opportunities to exploit the Dodgers' bullpen and potentially put Los Angeles in a very difficult position for the remainder of the series. Every additional inning the Dodgers' relievers have to cover tonight could make a difference in the days ahead. The same goes for the Brewers' pitching staff, of course. Milwaukee will need to be mindful of their own bullpen usage, especially if this series stretches beyond four games. Forcing Dave Roberts to make difficult decisions with his starters and relievers could give the Brew Crew a valuable advantage down the stretch.

On paper, tonight feels like a matchup that favors Milwaukee's offense. A patient lineup that consistently draws walks is going up against a pitcher who has struggled with command throughout his career. But, of course, baseball isn't won and lost in spreadsheets. Snell has the stuff to dominate even the most disciplined lineups, and the Dodgers have plenty of ways to counter Milwaukee's approach.

The Brewers need to continue doing what they've done so well all year. Make Snell work, be selective at the plate, foul off tough pitches, and force the Dodgers to make a move earlier than they'd like. If they can do that, it'll give them an opportunity to take advantage of Snell's weaknesses and put pressure on Los Angeles from the opening inning. If that approach forces the Dodgers to dig deeper into their bullpen than they planned, the benefits could extend well beyond tonight's game.