Logan Henderson Matched Tarik Skubal in What Brewers Hope Was an October Preview

Logan Henderson is not Tarik Skubal. At his best, Skubal’s two fastballs flirt with triple digits. They comprise just one part of a powerful five-pitch mix from the left side. His ceiling is the best starting pitcher in baseball. Henderson, meanwhile, averages 93 MPH with his heater, and his ceiling is probably a solid No. 2 starter.

But when the Brewers reportedly withheld Henderson from an already-aggressive trade offer to the Detroit Tigers, and Skubal instead became a Los Angeles Dodger for a pitching-centric return, the calculus wasn’t just about ceiling. Skubal was a rental who would make at most 15 more starts through a 2026 World Series run. Even if the best version of Skubal is better than the best version of Henderson, the latter could easily perform similarly for the rest of this year, after which he’ll have five more seasons of team control before free agency.

Skubal’s body of work since he started breaking out in 2023 is more significant, but Henderson has come impressively close to his rate stats in his first 17 big-league starts. That includes a nearly identical strikeout-minus-walk rate, among the most powerful predictors of pitcher performance.

The emphasis here is “close.” If the question is whom to pick for 15 starts, the answer is Skubal. If the question is whom to pick for a winner-take-all postseason start, the answer is Skubal. Henderson isn’t a bad alternative, though. He’s capable of matching him within such a 15-start stretch and on a given night.

Henderson going directly against Skubal just a couple of weeks after the trade was a prompt test of that hypothesis. The early returns supported it. Skubal didn’t have great support from his defense, as just one of the two runs he allowed was earned. For that reason, it’s not quite fair to say Henderson outdueled him, but he absolutely matched him. Beyond their box-score lines, the two were nearly identical when it came to commanding the strike zone and missing barrels.

Adding to the symmetry is the fact that both pitchers are propelled by their excellent changeups. Both Henderson and Skubal induced whiffs on 50% of swings with their changeups Sunday, offsetting louder contact against their fastballs.

Most notably, Henderson got another opportunity to pitch into the seventh inning after an unsuccessful attempt in his last start. In San Diego, his fastball velocity tumbled to 90.6 MPH in his seventh frame, and he hung a changeup to Jackson Merrill for a go-ahead home run. On Sunday, Henderson averaged 93.7 MPH in the seventh, tossing a scoreless final inning and tying a career high with 93 pitches.

As things currently stand, Skubal and Henderson could line up for a direct rematch in a postseason game. Even if they don’t, Henderson profiles as one of the Brewers’ top three starters, so they’ll start him in important October games. Whether those outings come against the Dodgers or someone else, they’ll hope for similar results to what they would have gotten from Skubal had they acquired him instead. A Sunday afternoon outing in August guarantees nothing from a rookie starter in the postseason, but it was the latest sign that the guy the Brewers insisted on keeping could match the game’s best arms when needed.

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