The Brewers’ Biggest Postseason Problem is Starting to Look Familiar

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While Tuesday night’s Game 3 loss is far from the end of Milwaukee’s season, it highlighted something that has plagued this team for multiple years now. The Brewers have had plenty of opportunities to score throughout this NLDS. The problem is that they haven’t been able to consistently turn those opportunities into runs, and that can be a fatal problem in October. Over the course of the regular season, there was no better team in baseball with runners in scoring position than the Brew Crew. Their .797 OPS in those situations led the league, and they consistently found ways to capitalize when they had an opportunity to put runs on the board.

But the postseason has been a different story. Through three games against the Padres in the NLDS, Milwaukee is just 6-for-23 with runners in scoring position. A .261 batting average in those situations (by itself) isn’t all that bad, especially over such a small sample size. Too few runs are resulting from those hits, though.

The Brewers have left 27 runners on base through the first three games of this series. They’ve obviously been able to win two of those three, but they’ve also scored no more than four runs in any of them. All three games have been decided by one run, which makes every missed opportunity that much more significant. The epitome of it all came Tuesday night, when William Contreras managed a hit with a runner on second—but the Padres kept it on the infield and the run didn't come home.

In last year’s NLDS, Milwaukee took the first two games against the Cubs and looked like a team that would be extremely difficult to knock out. They came through in clutch situations and looked like a force to be reckoned with. Then came Games 3 and 4. The Brewers went a combined 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position in those two contests, and the Cubs forced a decisive Game 5. Milwaukee went 0-for-3 with runners in scoring position in that game, but still managed to get the job done and advance to the NLCS. That’s where their inability to consistently convert those opportunities finally caught up with them.

Against the Dodgers, the Brewers went just 1-for-16 with runners in scoring position across the four-game series. They were swept, bringing a disappointing end to what had been a great season. Milwaukee was the National League’s No. 1 seed that year, just like it is this season, but by the time the NLCS rolled around, it certainly didn’t feel like it. Every postseason is different, and this Brewers team has already shown that it can win games without consistently piling up runs. But if Milwaukee wants this year to be different, it’s going to have to start converting scoring chances.

The margin for error in the postseason is incredibly slim. That’s been apparent throughout these first three games against San Diego. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has done an excellent job of keeping the team in these games, while Jackson Chourio provided some fireworks in Game 2. Those things have helped the Brewers take a 2-1 series lead, despite leaving a significant number of runners on base.

It’s worth pointing out that San Diego hasn’t exactly been great in those situations, either. The Padres are just 4-for-21 with runners in scoring position through the first three games, which has kept Milwaukee from paying a much bigger price for its own struggles. But Milwaukee can’t count on that continuing. If the Brewers are going to advance to the NLCS (and hopefully make an even deeper run from there), they’re going to need more than dominant pitching and the occasional big swing. At some point, the offense is going to have to start making the most of the opportunities it creates.

That was one of the biggest strengths of this team during the regular season. It’s also been one of its biggest weaknesses in recent postseason history. The Brewers are still in a very good position, and Tuesday’s loss certainly doesn’t mean their season is in danger of falling apart. But the longer they continue to leave runners stranded, the more difficult they’re making things for themselves.