The Brewers' Recipe for Success in Game 1 Against the Padres

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We’ve officially made it. Game 1 of the National League Division Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres is right around the corner, and the importance of getting off to a strong start can’t be overstated. Whichever team comes out on top will capture some early momentum in the series, while the losing team will immediately find itself playing from behind. Neither club wants to put itself in that position. It can be nigh impossible to recover from an early deficit in a short playoff series.

The Padres are coming off a dominant Wild Card performance and played excellent baseball down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Brewers are well-rested after earning a bye through the first round and will be looking to take advantage of that extra time off. If Milwaukee is going to get the job done in Game 1, this is how it might go..

1. Let Jacob Misiorowski Do His Thing

Obviously, it starts with Jacob Misiorowski. The soon-to-be NL Cy Young winner gives Milwaukee a huge advantage on the mound, and if he pitches anything like he did during his previous matchup against San Diego, the Brewers will have a great chance to take Game 1.

Misiorowski made one start against the Padres during the regular season, taking the mound against them on May 13. He threw seven scoreless innings while striking out 10 batters, completely shutting down San Diego’s lineup. Of course, replicating that kind of performance against the same team in the postseason is easier said than done. The Padres have plenty of talented hitters, and they'll have another opportunity to make adjustments after seeing Misiorowski earlier in the year. Still, if there’s any pitcher capable of putting together another dominant performance, it’s him.

His last start came on Sunday, meaning the extra time off during the Wild Card round shouldn't disrupt his normal routine. He should be well-positioned to take the ball and give Milwaukee a strong start, and presumably, there will be fewer constraints on him in terms of in-game workload now that the stakes have risen.

The Brewers don't need Misiorowski to throw a complete game, but getting six or seven strong innings out of their ace would put them in position to win. If he can keep the Padres' offense quiet early, Milwaukee can focus on finding a few timely runs and letting its pitching staff do the rest.

2. Manufacture Some Runs, the Good Ol' Fashioned Way

Because Misiorowski is on the mound, I think Milwaukee's offensive approach could look a little different in Game 1. In theory, this shouldn't be a game where the Brewers need to score a ton of runs to win. Obviously, that depends on how he performs, but if he's able to deliver the kind of outing we're expecting, a few runs could be enough to get the job done. Because of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see Milwaukee lean into a small-ball approach and look for ways to manufacture offense, rather than relying on extra-base hits.

That could mean moving runners over with sacrifice bunts, being aggressive on the basepaths, or even breaking out a hit-and-run or squeeze play in the right situation. These aren't always the most exciting ways to score runs, but they can be extremely effective when every baserunner matters. Crucially, the Brewers have the personnel to make that approach work.

Milwaukee laid down 37 sacrifice bunts during the regular season and stole 162 bases. Both marks ranked fifth in Major League Baseball, highlighting just how much this team can do to put pressure on opposing defenses. The Brewers have built an identity around being aggressive, creating opportunities, and forcing opponents to make plays. In a postseason game where one mistake can change everything, that style of baseball can be especially valuable.

I'm not suggesting Milwaukee should abandon its usual offensive approach or start bunting every time somebody reaches base. However, if the Brewers have an opportunity to move a runner into scoring position or take an extra base, they need to be willing to make it happen. Pat Murphy should have plenty of confidence in his team's ability to manufacture runs, and Game 1 could be the perfect opportunity to lean into that strength.

3. Don't Be Afraid to Turn to the Bullpen

The final piece of the puzzle is riding the hot hand on the mound. It's entirely possible Misiorowski shoves for seven or eight innings, giving Milwaukee exactly the kind of start it needs. It's also possible Murphy wants to be a little more cautious with his ace, keeping his workload in mind with the possibility of another start in Game 5 and the hoped-for eventuality of a start in the next round.

Either way, the bullpen will play an important role in determining the outcome of this game. Fortunately for Milwaukee, its relievers should be well-rested after the bye in the Wild Card round. That gives Murphy some flexibility when it comes to navigating the later innings, especially if the Brewers have a lead to protect.

Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe are obviously the biggest names to watch in high-leverage situations, but neither has been asked to work much more than an inning at a time during the regular season. That's understandable over the course of a 162-game schedule, but the postseason is a different animal. If Milwaukee needs six outs from one of their top relievers to secure a win, Murphy shouldn't hesitate to make that move.

We saw the Philadelphia Phillies attempt a nine-out save with Jhoan Duran in Game 1 of their Wild Card series against the Atlanta Braves. That plan didn't work out, and I'm certainly not suggesting the Brewers need to push one of their relievers that far. However, there's a difference between overworking a bullpen arm and recognizing the importance of a particular game. While Game 1 isn't a must-win, it's absolutely a set-the-tone game, and Milwaukee should manage its pitching staff accordingly.

If that means getting multiple innings from Megill, Uribe, or someone like Aaron Ashby, so be it. Murphy should be willing to ride whoever has the hot hand and give his team the best possible chance to close things out. The Brewers have the advantage of entering the series with a rested bullpen, and they should use that to their benefit. If the game is there for the taking in the late innings, Milwaukee can't afford to hold anything back simply because a reliever isn't accustomed to working more than three outs.

This should be an extremely entertaining series between two red-hot teams, and it all starts with Game 1. The Padres are playing some excellent baseball, and Milwaukee will have their hands full trying to slow them down. However, the Brewers have the starting pitching, offensive versatility, and bullpen depth to make things difficult for San Diego.

If Misiorowski can deliver a strong outing, Milwaukee can manufacture a few runs with its aggressive approach at the plate and on the basepaths, and Murphy can get the most out of his bullpen in the later innings, I like the Brewers' chances of coming out on top. It's not going to be easy, but that's the recipe for success in Game 1.