Will Jacob Misiorowski's Fastball Return to Dominance in World Series Game 1?

Injuries and underperformance thinned the back of the Brewers' starting rotation down the stretch, but they still had enough depth to navigate playoff series. Nonetheless, with Kyle Harrison and Dustin May falling from stalwarts to question marks, winning Jacob Misiorowski's postseason starts became even more crucial for setting the tone in the Division Series and the Championship Series. The same is true now, as Misiorowski prepares to pitch in the opener of the World Series.

The Brewers have won both of Misiorowski's October starts, but not because he carried them to victories. He's been fine in both outings, but each was a far cry from his dominant regular-season form, when he was the best pitcher in baseball. Misiorowski failed to complete five innings in both starts, and after leading qualified starters in strikeout-minus-walk rate in the regular season, he's been middle-of-the-pack among playoff starters.

"Long story [short], he's taken on a lot of responsibility as a young [24]-year-old kid," Pat Murphy said. "I think it's been a lot for him."

Misiorowski's fastball has been the culprit for the downturn. In the regular season, it induced whiffs on 40.2% of swings. This October, that number is down to 16.1%. It's gone from the game's best swing-and-miss four-seamer to below average at missing bats.

The fastball wasn't going to overpower Misiorowski's first two opponents as it did most teams. Both the Padres and Dodgers were great fastball-hitting lineups this season. When Misiorowski faced the Dodgers in August, they only whiffed on 22.6% of swings against his heater. In the playoffs, both teams targeted the fastball and refused to let it beat them. They took shorter swings, which put them more on time and on plane with the ball. For the most part, they still didn't square it up, but they combined to foul off 40 Misiorowski fastballs, the second-most against any pitcher this October.

"The Padres and Dodgers both had a good approach of just fouling stuff off," Misiorowski said. "I bet Tampa Bay is going to do pretty much the same thing."

"They're obviously looking at an area," Murphy said. "They're trying to exploit everything. He's exposed, like all these guys get at some point."

Misiorowski isn't at his best, either. No pitcher would admit to it ahead of the biggest start of his life, but he's probably feeling the effects of a career-high in innings.

"It's all about Miz and his health and his mental state, and it's not easy," Murphy said. "It's not easy what he's going through. This kid is way over what people would call his innings limit."

He's maintained triple-digit velocity into October, but Misiorowski's been physically out of sync in both starts, causing him to spray more fastballs and fall into non-competitive counts.

That also alters how his ball moves. If Misiorowski's delivery is off, it's harder for him to get his hand behind the ball and work through it to create backspin. That backspin gives it extreme, deceptive carry from his low arm slot and leaves hitters swinging underneath the ball. The induced vertical break of Misiorowski's fastball dipped at the end of September. In his NLCS start, it fell to 13.7 inches, 1.6 inches below his regular-season average.

Non-competitive locations, working behind in counts, and a tick less carry open the door for great hitters to hunt and spoil a great fastball, even if it's still not very hittable. That's how the Padres and Dodgers made Misiorowski grind for most outs in his first two playoff starts.

"He hasn't been as crisp," Murphy said.

Still, Misiorowski believes he found the feeling he wants during the middle innings of his second start.

"I feel good," he said. "I feel like the first one might have been a little under what I expected, but the second one was pretty much right where I wanted to be. I think I finally figured it out in Game 2 of not getting off my end goal and doing what I need to do to succeed and not trying to play their game."

His game remains to fire lots of fastballs. Even with diminished movement and control, Misiorowski's velocity and extension still make it a great pitch. It should play much better against the Rays than against the Padres and Dodgers, too. The latter two were among the best in baseball at handling velocity this year, but Tampa Bay was one of the worst offenses against pitches thrown 98 mph or above.

Even when he struggled, Misiorowski and the Brewers got through his first two outings by doubling down on his fastball, throwing it 67% of the time through his two starts. That won't change on Friday, nor should it. Hitters have chipped away at his heater, but they still haven't solved it. Misiorowski can still compete without his best fastball. If he rediscovers it for one more outing, it will boost the Brewers' chances at clinching the first championship in franchise history.

"I think I've just got to stick to my strengths and pound the zone," Misiorowski said.

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