TheCrew07

I understand we are on opposite sides of this issue but the very idea that he wasn't a reach in the eyes of many in the baseball community is the problem, not the answer. I will concede that I stay away from low arm slot pitchers as a personal preference, but there's also a good reason for that. I'm not sure how you can claim the arm slot isn't an issue when in fact he couldn't keep the ball down in the zone in WI last season, and apparently was the same guy this year to a woeful result. At some point doesn't there need to acknowledgement that the results haven't come close to matching the upside? The Brewers had him back off his FB in an effort to get him to throw strikes, and we weren't talking a 1st tier FB to being with. Kodi's 2016 was a train wreck, and I do believe he was pushed to aggressively given the quality of his overall game. Everyone is rooting for Kodi, even me, and I agree that's he's a good kid, that's not the issue, nor will his unique development pace be the issue. The issue is projecting pitchers who have a plus pitch or 2, no matter how nasty, that are around the plate as having top of the rotation potential, when it's not that simple. In Kodi's case he's very good at spotting his slider under a RH batter's hands but that's only spot he could consistently put it in 2015. His change was almost always the same spot thigh high on the arm side of the plate, and his FB was pretty much all over the place with that great downward action. He induced a ton of groundballs on his FB's action, not it's location, and he piled up strike outs on that slider, but the better teams in the MWL figured him out and he struggled badly against them. The sum of those tools weren't as good as his peripherals would suggest, and I thought pushing him to BC was a mistake and said it many times this year. There's a reason I watched his video and he wasn't even mentioned in my draft posts in 2014, I've been very consistent and open about the kind of pitchers I'd like to draft in the first round and why I want them. It's not necessary that we agree, but I do think you're letting your personal affinity for Kodi and his family cloud your overall assessment of his selection by the Brewers. I would have happily passed on him for Newcomb or Holmes and let some other team take him in the first, the fact that another team was interested in him doesn't in itself justify the selection. We could have a gone a different route and still signed both Harrison (a selection I loved) and Gatewood (who was obviously boom or bust), that's why I don't think Medeiros was chosen simply because he would sign for underslot. There were also plenty of teams that saw him as nothing more than a reliever if he made it, and as I said earlier potential is relative to the eye of the beholder.

I think too much is being made of this bullpen thing. Most of those awesome bullpen pitchers had stuff and a big arm when they were acquired, but for various reasons didn't work out in the rotation and fell back to the bullpen, like Wade Davis. What I mean is that having starters to get you through 4-5 innings wasn't the plan, it was just how it worked out, and relying on the bullpen for half the innings in a game only works in the post season because of the off days. The flip side is what Bumgarner did last night. I absolutely agree that there is always more than 1 way to get home, but the idea should be to acquire as many legitimate pitchers from a stuff and arm standpoint as possible let them shake out as they will. I still firmly believe that we don't need an "ace", the goal should be 3 #2 type starting pitchers, I'd be ecstatic with a 1-3 of Gallardo types, because the rest of the guys with legit stuff will end up in the bullpen and we'll have a very strong pitching staff all the way around. I'm not big into one or the other type scenarios, the Brewer's weren't developing bullpen arms for the same reason they weren't developing starters, there simply weren't enough high quality arms in the system at any given point to do so. Impact pitchers, starters or relievers, all come from the same pool, and creating that depth is the key issue. Most years the Brewers have been lucky to have a 1 or 2, then a 3, and then 3 #4/#5 type starters, hence the "Capauno is the true staff ace" type of post from years ago.

I think baseball is definitely moving in the same direction as the NFL with concessions. Concession prices out are out of hand. I was at Comerica Park last week and 1 round of 4 beers (3 Miller Lite and 1 Coors Light) was $38.00, obviously not beer which would typically be high priced. We were on vacation and had all significantly over budgeted for the trip so we were happy to take turns buying rounds waiting out the rain, but that was far outside of our normal stadium experience. There's simply no way we would have bought 6 rounds of beer over 3 hours at a Brewer game. Granted the rain delay situation doesn't exist at Miller Park but there's no novelty to the Miller Park experience anymore either which would compel me to purchase anything inside the park (other than Brewer gear). If I'm going to drink we get there early and tailgate and then bring water into the game so we're good for the drive home. Once prices started going up we just adjusted our behavior and reduced our in stadium spending down to tickets. I would think there would definitely be a point of diminishing returns, it's not like WI is booming and salaries are keeping up with the massive inflation of ballpark concessions. Who are these people willing to double the cost of a game buying stadium concessions on a regular basis? I highly doubt the majority of season holders would, in fact I bet on the whole they are most miserly inside the stadium, at least the small # of season ticket holders I know are.

You're probably correct Narwhal, I had somehow forgotten those rants, but I think the same is true of Ray, the Brewers honestly thought he was the best player available at that slot. I certainly didn't view Ray as a star on draft day, I think he'll be average to above average if he hits well, but there's absolutely nothing wrong with him as a player. Of course I wanted pitching so I was disappointed, but then again I've been disappointed even when I've gotten pitching in the first because the target wasn't what I've hoped for. I agree wholeheartedly that the Brewers need more impact potential, especially on the pitching front, but I disagree that you won't be able to get impact pitching going underslot. The Brewers simply need to do a better job identifying impact pitching talent, they've gotten much better at finding those middle ground inning eater types, but every pitcher at the top of our heap has the same set of issues with consistently finding the strike zone. The core issue is probably the lack of consensus in what are good pitching mechanics, or believing in things like "a natural arm slot" when kids simply mimic what they see to choose their arm slot at a young age. I don't think there are any easy answers, and I've admittedly long chastised the Brewers for their lack of a progressive approach when it comes to development of both hitters and pitchers. There isn't much originality from the organization, just a bunch of borrowed ideas that others have already proven concept for, the end result of which is that the Brewers are always a couple of years behind the curve.

When did going under slot become synonymous with "lower ceiling"? The teams that have had success utilizing that strategy didn't have the consensus top player on the board as their #1, or at least thought the drop off to their guy was minimal. For example I fail to see how Houston settled for lesser talent getting a career .829 OPS out of a 21 year old SS to this point? Carlos Correa was an awesome pick, full slot value or not, and for that matter any team would be crazy to pay more than they have to for any player, that's just bad business. Correa has accumulated more WAR than the rest of the top 10 picks in the 2012 draft to this point. If this talk is stemming from the Brewers picking Medeiros at 12 and signing him for slightly under slot value I would argue that Kodi wasn't worthy of being picked in that slot regardless and said so at the time, but he nailed his workout and the team thought they were getting a front line starter for significant cost savings. The gulf between Correa and Medeiros was in the eye of the beholder on draft day, the Brewers just aren't good at identifying top of the rotation talent. I don't really believe the Brewers picked Medeiros solely because he could be had for cheap in that slot, to me that's stretching the truth of what happened. My concern has more to do with the workout warrior justification of a draft pick, it seems that every time the Brewers have gone that route the draft pick has blown up on them... Frederickson, Walla, and Medeiros stand out to me in that regard and I will continue to cringe every time a work out is mentioned as the primary justification for any pick. Just because the Brewers botched the situation with Medeiros doesn't mean the strategy isn't a sound team building concept, in truth it's actually a very good way to add more high ceiling talent to a system than a team would otherwise be able to. To me it's basically taking the HS kid over the 4yr player, betting on the HS kid to reach his ceiling as he matures, but that doesn't mean the HS player has a lower ceiling as a player.

I don't think this is the tragedy that some have made it to be, and not to single out adambr2, but Colorado Springs didn't anything to Jorge, Jorge did it to himself. I actually think there's some value to pitching in Colorado Springs in learning how to overcome adversity and pitch in a different manner than one is used to. If anything CS highlights the problem which so many of the Brewer's top pitching prospects face, none are particularly adept at controlling their FB and when you don't have secondary stuff to fall back on FB location becomes everything. Hader and Jungmann in particular work off the plate so much with their off speed that I think there's value in reinforcing the need for better FB control and command, and truthfully better control and command of all their pitches in general.

Once again Melvin didn't draft anyone for the Brewers, ever. Jack Z and Bruce S (Ray Montgomery for 1 year) did all of the drafting during Melvin's tenure. They didn't do the best they could to acquire impact pitching, in fact the draft position was a heck of a lot better under Jack Z than under Seid... Mike Jones, Mark Rogers, Jeremy Jeffress, Evan Frederickson, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Hendrickson, Eric Arnett, and Dylan Covey were all picked in the 1st round from 2001 to 2010. Not a single starting pitcher for the Brewers from that bunch, and of course Odorizzi was traded so KC could win a World Series. I've pointed out numerous times that only having a couple of high risk high reward prospects at any one time was a strategy to fail. Not to mention they went signability with high risk players and never spent big money later in the draft for players that were slipping when that could be done. Yovani Gallardo was far and away the best pitching prospect from that time frame, and he was a 2nd rounder which of course meant that draft position mattered little for that selection. I think that's a reasonable take, though I'm not sure I'd go to the fantastic card in terms of pitching. We've traded for an awful lot of guys who project as 3s best case and while you can win enough games with an average pitching staff to get into the playoffs, I firmly believe that's not enough to win a championship. Play off baseball is all about match-ups and best on best, because of the off days the depth of your roster isn't as important as the talent at the top.

The player who's the best defensively I would imagine.

All of the best leaders delegate and develop the talent underneath them, I would hope Mark A is that type of person, especially with a business as small time as a minor league team, at least in comparison to a full fledged MLB franchise.

Geez, I did say "per game" when what I meant was "in a game" which is why I used a specific pitcher reference, my bad there. Nobody has 480 wild pitches in a season, that math was ridiculous, I should have proof read better than that. Wild Pitches are base runner dependent so they aren't a great benchmark, but when used in conjunction with PBs you can get a pretty good idea. I still prefer the eye test to establish a ceiling if you will, which you aren't able to get from statistical analysis. However, other than vines and MILB.com video, I didn't watch any AA outside of Hader, and at the time I wasn't interested in Nottingham's defense. I was just taking a quick look at Hader's mechanics, control, command, and stuff. Hader isn't a sniper by any stretch, so it will be interesting to see how fares at MLB, he's a more nasty version of Peralta, but I think he'll be similarly up and down. In his good years people claim he's the "true staff ace" and in his bad years people will wonder what happened to him. The answer of course will be nothing, players with difficult mechanics have a harder time being consistent. I would love to be wrong and have him be the first legit #2 for this next wave, I've been harping on the #2 concept forever, but I just didn't see enough to sell me yet. Getting back to Nottingham I would hope he works his butt off this winter and repeats AA, he's young enough that shouldn't be a problem. Well, unless the organization wants to bump Carlos Leal up to AA upon his return because McDowell will deserve to be in A+ next year, which to me would be foolish. They did create an unnecessary back log of OFs in WI to start 2016, which had some players playing up to a level too high, so it's possible that would be the scenario. However I'm happy with the catchers we currently have minus Maldy, so I don't feel any pressure to rush Nottingham. I'm curious what the scouts will have to say about Nottingham when the prospect lists are updated at mlbpipeline and Baseball America this winter because on the surface it appears he didn't make much progress.

I'm obviously disappointed, but I've already said everything I have to say about MILB affiliates between the AAA and A+ threads. /sigh Casey that was a pretty sweet chart at the end of the BC thread, that was much better than me just listing out the populations in the AAA thread. I may steal that concept for future use!

General receiving skills are pretty easy to assess without the eye test, Passed Balls and the # of Wild Pitches for the pitching staff will tell you pretty everything you to know about the current state of a catchers defense. Any ball in the dirt is by rule a wild pitch, regardless of how easy it would have been to block. If you see 4-5 wild pitches per game and it's not someone like Evan Frederickson on the mound then the C has some issues, especially at AA.

Of course you have a time accepting the approach when it runs so counter to your own personal philosophy and I've haven't read a post from you acknowledging that the win now philosophy didn't work out, or at least that the Brewers weren't competitive even during that "great recent run". I will say that once again you cherry picked the example and dismissed the rest of the moves. You aren't looking at moves he has made a whole, or the roster situation, you're focusing on the minor league side. I find your one sided approach frustrating at best, the very fact that the Brewers are averagish after trading so many players actually proves the counter argument to your point. Simply put, that you don't have to hang onto high priced veterans to win. I know this post will have absolutely no affect, that it will continue to all about wins and losses for you ignoring the much larger picture of how to actually build and sustain success, but somehow I'm compelled to beat my head against this wall. It's sad.

I point again to the Dayton Dragons who were awful and and yet outdrew 80% of the AAA teams. You can continue to ignore all of the evidence because it doesn't fit your simplistic model of winning and losing, but have you even read, listened, or watched an interview with a minor league team president or GM? They talk about marketing an experience and players, not a winning team, because winning and losing is outside of their control. Like it or not the Brewers haven't been a marketable franchise from a historical perspective, and the Brewers haven't really put much effort into their minor league affiliates, the only relationship they seem to cherish is the T-Rats which is easy to do a bunch of cross promotional stuff for. They've always been good with the affiliates from a communication perspective, but if you're a baseball fan in MS does it matter to you that Orlando Arcia was a Shucker last year? Or Josh Hader was this year? There are many reasons why the Brewers end up getting stuck with the last available franchise when the dust settles, and while I agree that winning and losing can have an effect, it's not the primary factor, what matters most is the marketing opportunities the parent organization provides. Without rehab assignments, without impact talent reaching the major leagues, without ever winning, what can the MiLB team market to fans beyond the typical minor league experience? One of the primary reasons I've wanted the Brewers to buy into MiLB affiliates is simply because they aren't a marketable franchise around baseball and that's a difficult conversation to have because many Brewer fans simply don't want to believe it. Buying into a situation with good facilities for prospect development eliminates that factor and brings long term security to the situation... all of the issues that concern me from a development perspective can be wiped away making the process extremely black and white. The Brewers don't have a winning tradition of baseball at any level, and the quality of baseball hasn't improved for the Rattlers by having the Brewers as the parent organization, what's made the biggest difference for the improvement in attendance has been the regional affiliation to the Brewers.

I was posting from an Affiliate perspective, not a development perspective. The 2012 T-Rats won a league title without a legitimate prospect anywhere, Jason Rogers and Yadiel Rivera were it, and then some current relievers like GoForth, Cravy, and Barnes. The best prospect was Mitch Haniger but he only played 14 games after the draft before going down for the season with an injury. I agree that winning can positively effect player development, but I don't think player development really has part in this discussion other than concerns about the weather and facility amenities which could negatively impact development.