Brewers (Drohan) vs Reds (Lowder): 6/24/26, 6:10pm

[owbc]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Base running is definitely a big part of it, the Brewers +43.1 BsR is best in MLB since 2023.

There is the old joke about home runs being rally killers, but I think the Brewers have somewhat taken that to heart and are testing the bounds of the theory somewhat.

Since 2023 their .327 OBP is 2nd in MLB, but their 578 HR and .147 isolated slugging are both 25th. They've scored the 6th most runs in MLB anyway.

High OBP + low Power = 5,874 PA with RISP since 2023 (most in MLB) hitting for a 117 wRC+ with RISP (2nd) ending up with 2,116 runs scored with RISP (1st).

Their overall 44.8 Swing% is also lowest in MLB since 2023.

So in the macro you've got a bunch of good base runners, frequently on base, who rarely swing, but few XBH to move them multiple bases at a time, all combining to put a bunch of pressure on opposing pitching staffs.

They might not crack every time, but with the Brewers posting a 331 W - 233 L record since 2023 (2nd best in MLB) it has worked 58.7% of the time anyway (or an MLB best 60.8% of the time since the start of last year).

I clearly haven't read enough fangraphs lately and am now getting into a sequencing rabbit hole...

It seems like our ability to see more pitches is the big one that gets missed -- high BB rate overall and lower K rate especially with runners on base. 

Effective deployment of platoons is the other one, with Vaughn obviously being the current poster child for most effective platoon player in MLB.