owbc

What’s your point?

Pretty nice post-election bump this morning. The results favor two things the markets want -- an end to the Iran situation and less AI Capex.

I hate having an aging superstar as a primary DH, it fits perfectly with Contreras spending too much time catching. Although at least that isn't our problem until we sign him to an extension and the overuse catches up to him...

I generally agree with you, I had low expectations for the hire given the last two and was hoping for a fresh direction so it checks that box. The short list candidates with experience that I had some interest in (Baldelli, Lovullo) withdrew and Espada didn't really excite me. You outline exactly how it might fail -- maybe what the clubhouse really needs is a motivator and not an analytics guy. Kanzler is certainly no Murph!

Vaughn I would ship off in a second if the right offer came along. His batted ball metrics don't back up his production over a larger sample. And that's even with the favorable platoon in '26. While providing zero defensive value and clogging up the DH position. If Bauers rejects the QO, then yes, we can play Vaughn full-time at 1B in 2027, but over a full season you'd expect mid-to-upper 700s OPS which is only slightly above league average for a 1B/DH. I'd take that in a heartbeat for the cost, but if we have Bauers then Vaughn is redundant as the postseason AB count showed.

Morejon couldn't even throw 4 innings in the postseason without getting shut down with arm fatigue. And he had 2 days of rest in there! He thinks he could start????

As the resident Mariners fan here, I'm a big fan of this move. This was a good time to take a risk and they are bringing in an analytically-minded guy who will mesh well with Dipoto but is known for being a great communicator. There are plenty of hitting coaches who have become managers. I'm honestly surprised it's taken this long for Dipoto to move the Mariners in this direction. It's not a coincidence that Kanzler and the new hitting coach Gilman are both Driveline guys and it's not a coincidence that the Brewers have a decent number of Driveline alums working in their minor leagues. So -- reading between the lines -- let's say you just watched the Brewers tear up the MLB and you wanted to emulate their hitting philosophy. These are exactly the guys you would hire if that's your thought process. I have no idea if they will succeed or not (and T-Mobile Park is one of the hardest ballparks to copy the Brewers at) but I guarantee that's what is happening here.

Not yet. They owe me a lot of money so hopefully soon 😅 I managed to exclusively buy tickets to games in Milwaukee that were not played.

He was sneakily a value machine in the postseason too. Started off a bit slow but finished with a .817 OPS (.404 OBP) and was lock down solid defensively at 2B. Just like the regular season I feel like he was quietly productive and didn't make as many highlight reels as some of his teammates. So perhaps it's appropriate that his routine play to end the World Series is the highlight that he'll be immortalized in.

Yes! Great analysis. Felix getting in would be a positive sign in the right direction, with many voters starting to give more weight to the "peak" than they used to. I could see Felix getting in by the 5th or 6th ballot at his current pace. Voters don't like to leave blank ballots and many will do full 10-player ballots so I think we'll continue to see preferences adjust as the candidate list changes. I'm still waiting for the voters to be more friendly to relief pitchers.

As I said in the Trade Rumors thread, I think there's a financial argument to accept given the possibility of a salary minimum going into effect next year, which could create a frenzied FA market as 8-10 teams need to spend up to hit the minimum. We saw some evidence of preparations for this last year with a few of the lower salaried team (e.g. Pittsburgh) making some uncharacteristic FA signings. Bauers isn't going to do much better than $23M AAV on the open market for 2027, so if he wants to bet on himself to have another good year and run it back with the Brewers, why not accept? Bold prediction -- he takes the QO. My fan perspective -- I would prefer he takes it. I don't like the thought of year 2-3+ Bauers, but one year at $23M for our best 2026 hitter by OPS? Sign me up.

May's career looks a lot like Antonio Senzatela through age 28. I think he's going to go chase starting pitcher money while he can. Somebody will pay him decent $ to be a starter given his full body of work in 2026. The Brewers had the right role for him in the bullpen.

For me it’s more about the journey than the destination. I was on a cloud today but I’m ready to start thinking 2027 roster and how to run it back. I want them to clinch at home. The journey of how this team responds to challengers now that the target is on their backs is going to be entertaining. It’s just nice to have the monkey off our backs.

A week or two ago I was arguing for letting Bill walk because of the financial numbers, but our financial situation is pretty good right now so I think we can get away with offering him the extension and still being able to extend whichever of our prospects are willing. I can't imagine a $100M FA signing that would offer us more benefit than what we get from Bill. I doubt any prospects are going to sign until the new CBA so in the short term we can only spend money on the major league roster and with everyone still on this high from the championship, maybe we can get some team friendly stuff inked. Contreras could make a huge amount of money in FA next year, especially if there is a salary minimum and 8-10 teams need to spend up to hit the minimum. So I think if we're going to get him extended we need to do it ASAP. Maybe Bauers accepts the QO, you never know. From his perspective there could be some strategy in hitting FA in the year that the minimum goes in, so you take your $23 million paycheck to run it back with the same group and bet on yourself to have another good year.

All I know is that our viral "Milwaukee Brewers" song from this run is on about minute 14 of 15 and I'd prefer to never hear it again after Friday.