Jayden Dubanewicz Aiming to Be Next Brewers Late-Round Draft Steal

Bishop Letson (11th round), Tyson Hardin (12th), Luke Adams (12th), and Josh Adamczewski (15th) are the most highly-touted post-10th round picks in the Milwaukee Brewers' vaunted farm system right now. However, as the club's 16th-round selection in 2024, Jayden Dubanewicz is looking to put himself in their company with his strong start to 2026.

Dubanewicz's signing came as a bit of a surprise, as he'd already moved into his dorm at the University of Florida by the time the Brewers picked him. The $665,000 signing bonus likely played a big role in convincing him, and it's looking like a smart investment for the Brewers.

At 6-foot-3, Dubanewicz still has significant physical projection left, with plenty of room to continue adding strength to his frame. However, he already looks to be bigger than his listed 160 pounds this season. He got off to a late start this season, after leaving a minor-league spring training game with a minor injury. He didn't ramp back up until mid-April, but made his first start for the newly minted Wilson Warbirds (Low-A) on May 13.

After sitting 92-94 mph last season, Dubanewicz has operated more consistently around 95 mph early this year and has touched 97.8. The velocity jump has also come with improved fastball characteristics, as he has reached up to 20 inches of induced vertical break on some of his four-seamers. With nearly seven feet of extension, the pitch has the potential to become a legitimate weapon for him if he can get the movement a bit more consistently in that 18-20 IVB range.

Because Dubanewicz made a couple of appearances in the Arizona Complex League as part of his rehab, we can compare his 2025 velocity, spin, and movement to where they are early in 2026, courtesy of Pitch Profiler.

A few things pop out immediately on that chart. First of all, Dubanewicz's arm angle has gone from 34° overall (39° on his four-seam) to 49° overall and 53° on his four-seam. It's easy to see the difference in the pictures below (2026 on the left; 2025 on the right).

A higher arm angle does usually coincide with more IVB, and Dubanewicz has gone from an average of 15.2" to 17.8". Neither of those are out of the ordinary for their arm slot, though, so the bigger jumps to pay attention to are in his extension and velocity.

He has made some other changes to his delivery as well, including making his glove tap at the top of his leg lift much smaller, and also sitting back into his back leg a bit better. He stays a bit taller up top as well, helping him rotate more efficiently.

In the 67 pitches that were tracked in 2025, Dubanewicz's max velocity was 94.7 MPH, and he averaged 93 MPH. In his 2026 appearance, he threw six pitches harder than that, including the aforementioned 97.8 MPH pitch, averaging 95.

With the MLB average for release extension being 6.3 feet, Dubanewicz already generated slightly above-average extension last season at 6.65 feet, but it has jumped to 7.01 feet this year. The thought is that one foot of extension above average adds about 1.7 MPH to the perceived velocity of a pitch. This means that Dubanewicz's 2-MPH jump in velocity is a bit closer to a 3 MPH jump in perceived velocity. Typically, guys also achieve less extension when they work from a higher arm angle, so his extension increasing this way despite raising his slot bespeaks a player getting down the mound much, much better than in the past.

Something else that appears to have improved from 2025 to 2026 is the spin rate. The RPMs are up on all of the pitches you would want them to be up on, and he's actually killing spin on the changeup a bit better, as well. He also appears to be separating the slider and curveball shapes a bit better. There's not a cluster on the 2026 side of the above graphic, like there was in 2025.

It should be noted that while the velocity was in the 94-97 range early in his start on Wednesday, it had dropped down to 92-95 in the third inning. As he continues to build up, showing that he can hold that velocity later in starts will be important for Dubanewicz.

All three secondaries show flashes of being average or better offerings, with the breaking balls being used mainly against righties and the changeup being used mainly against lefties. The shapes of all three pitches should allow them all to be used in a platoon-neutral manner, though, which gives him a particularly deep mix.

He's still using his "sinker" in Low-A games, but it was not used during his time in the ACL, so there's no data to look at there. It plays more like a two-seamer than a true sinker, as it's used more for its run than its sink. That's truer than ever from the higher slot.

These changes and improvements have led to a very strong start to his season, including his two ACL appearances and three starts with Wilson. His 42% whiff rate would be in the 98th percentile for qualified pitchers at the Low-A level—though he is, of course, not currently close to qualified, due to his late start.

If there is one thing to keep an eye on, it's the walks. He only walked 5.6% of batters faced last season, but he is currently at 12.7% early this year. It's too small a sample to draw any real conclusions from right now, especially because four of his seven walks came on Wednesday, in a game that began in a weather delay and was dealing with intermittent rain throughout the early innings. Still, it's something to track moving forward.

Dubanewicz turned 20 in early March and has a long developmental road ahead of him. If he can continue to add strength and see the velocity bump up even further, this is the type of arm that could start to push its way toward top-10 prospect consideration in the system. It's too early in the season to project that, but he has that type of talent and (given the strides he's already made) seems to have the work ethic to get there.

Interested in learning more about the Milwaukee Brewers' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!