27 Things That Will Decide the 2026 World Series: 5th Inning

Hopefully, you've been following along a while here. I won't waste your time on undue recapitulation. We're previewing the 2026 World Series through the lens of 27 seemingly small things that might get big, fast. Here's the middle batch (of nine). If you'd like to work your way back to the beginning, go here. This time, we're going to focus on weak points when the ball is in play. Where are there hits (or errors) to be found, on a field filled with talented defenders no matter which side is batting?

13. Find the Guys Who Don't Want the Ball.
How do you pierce the armor that is the Rays' league-best defense on balls in play? It's simpler than it sounds—just not easier. If you want to put pressure on Tampa Bay, there are three ways to do it:

1. Hit ground balls that force rushed throws. They're not perfect—no one is—but the Rays' throwing infielders are solid. Taylor Walls is the star of the operation and the fixture in the firmament, but Junior Caminero is fine, too. Richie Palacios, Ben Williamson and Jorge Mato take turns playing second base, and they're all cromulent, at a position where the Rays' defensive positioning plans make it easy to survive without being superb. There's a weak link in the chain, though. Jonathan Aranda is the worst first baseman in the league at scooping low throws that come in ankle-high or on a short hop. "Have a speedy runner hit a ball that forces an infielder to move their feet and make a low throw" isn't a strategy, but that play is a weakness for the Rays, and it's hardly inconceivable that we'll see it happen during this Series. It might even happen several times, or just once, but at a truly pivotal moment.
2. Make Chandler Simpson throw the ball. I've already recommended Sam Miller's excellent preview of little things that might matter in this series, but I'll renew that recommendation now. (In fact, if you don't subscribe to Sam's Substack already, do it; do it now.) In it, he notes the way Simpson's arm falls short of being good in two different ways. One is obvious: sometimes, he just doesn't throw the ball hard enough. At other times, though, the trouble manifests because (in order to throw it hard enough) he takes a long time to get rid of the ball. There will be chances to take an extra base on Simpson's arm, if Brewers hitters can just make him move to collect the ball. That goes to another, subtler and more fraught way to find value by testing him, too: his routes. Simpson is exceptionally fast (see the 4th-inning entry), and can make up for pretty much any mistake in the outfield—which is a lucky thing for him, because he makes a lot of them. 
   
   
   
   At Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, this is a relatively minor issue. The ball either hits a wall, flies ove it, or is in the air long enough for Simpson to make up for a misstep and run it down. That won't always be true at Uecker Field in Milwaukee, though. The left-field corner is 27 feet deeper (342 feet, not 315) and the wall higher than in Florida. To exploit Simpson's weak arm, the Brewers have to find grass against him, and he's very good coming in on the ball. Hitting it over his head is both possible and profitable, though—especially at home.
3. Get the ball to Griffin Jax. This is mean. This is bullying. I am a dog with a bone about this, and if Griffin Jax ever takes exception and reams me out about it, I will completely understand. That man can't field his position, though. He's dreadful. The Rays pitchers, as a whole, are not good fielders, but Jax is the biggest culprit and best target. Pitchers talk about flipping a mental switch between the difficult and very distinct jobs of winding up and delivering a pitch, versus pouncing on a batted ball and getting it to the proper base. Jax's switch is on a bad wire, and every time he tries to flip it, there's a real chance of electrocution. He'll botch picking up easy grounders at times; he'll throw balls down the right-field line at others. If at all possible (without making it obvious, and thereby easing his mental lane-switch), the Brewers should put the ball in Jax's hands when they need to break an inning open.

14. Starting Points and Destinations: The Brewers' Outfield Misadventures
Unfortunately for the Crew, Simpson isn't the only outfielder in this series who has a somewhat weak arm and takes some bad routes on fly balls. That's all been true of Sal Frelick this season, too. In fairness to Frelick, he clearly played much of the season through an injury he suffered quite early, but the fact is that he's been out of position, headed the wrong direction and/or too tentative to make some of the plays the team needed throughout the year. Much of the same could be said, early in the campaign, of Garrett Mitchell. 

It didn't catch headlines the same way the same dynamic did with Cooper Pratt and Joey Ortiz, but when Luis Lara was promoted to the majors in June, it seemed to light a fire under Mitchell and Frelick. Neither of those guys really need a fire lit under them; neither does Ortiz. But the arrival of Lara sent them a clear message: if needed, the rookie will take your job. It's good to be safe and to avoid injury, but (as Frelick himself said) you shouldn't be fresh in September (or October). 

Both Frelick and Mitchell were better, by the defensive numbers, in the second half. Mitchell seems to have completely cleaned up his game, and attacks opportunities to make catches or important throws with confidence and ferocity. Frelick is a bit less impressive, yet, and it'll be interesting to see how Pat Murphy divvies up playing time in right field throughout the series. Lara is clearly the superior defender, but Frelick is very much a part of the fabric of the team—and a player that important to the team's psyche is hard to take off the field. In left field, meanwhile, Jackson Chourio has traced an even brighter streak across the late summer and early fall than Mitchell; he's a newly elite defender there.

15. Keep It in Front of You
We've already talked at length about the running game, in terms of preventing stolen bases. There's another dimension to a catcher's work on that front, though, and it might be a source of game-tilting chaos during this series. Both William Contreras and Liam Hicks are poor blockers of errant pitches. These two staffs are, in different ways, hard to catch, but a good catcher has to find ways to smother even a buried changeup or a total misfire of a fastball. Hicks isn't good at that, and never has been. Contreras used to be, but it's been a glaring weakness in his defensive game this year—especially in October. As we discussed in the 4th inning post, the Rays allow few runners to even get into position to benefit from wild pitches or passed balls. That's slightly (but importantly) less true of the Brewers, which means that of the two starting backstops, the greater pressure in this series falls on Contreras. The Crew needs him to keep double plays in order and give hurlers like Logan Henderson and DL Hall the confidence to throw pitches that might bounce. If he doesn't, sudden rallies might develop for Tampa Bay.

No five and dive here. Four more strong frames coming in the morning. Follow along, and in the meantime, let us know what little things you're looking for as the first Brewers World Series of the internet age gets underway. 

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