A Risk-Averse Garrett Mitchell is Not Finishing the Job in Center Field

Garrett Mitchell owes many of his continued opportunities as the Brewers’ starting center fielder to his high ceiling. When he’s clicking, no position player on the 40-man roster has the potential to be a more explosive player. Part of what makes Mitchell so polarizing is that his shortcomings are glaring issues, but he’s countered some of those flaws by being elite in his areas of strength.

For most of his career, that has included being an excellent defensive center fielder. Mitchell entered this season with 10 Defensive Runs Saved and a 7 Fielding Run Value in just 822 ⅓ innings, a pace that would make him one of the game’s most valuable defenders at the position over a full season. It’s been a much different story in 2026. Mitchell has been a negative up the middle, with -3 DRS and -2 FRV in just over 300 innings.

Mitchell is converting fewer plays, despite having some of the best reads and athleticism of his career. His average sprint speed of 29.7 feet per second is the fastest he’s run since his debut in late 2022. According to Statcast, he’s covering 2.3 more feet with his jump (distance traveled in the correct direction within the first three seconds of a ball being hit) than the average outfielder, which is a career best.

The issue hasn’t been tracking the ball. Mitchell is putting himself in positions to make just as many rangy catches as before—if not even more. However, things unravel quickly when he faces danger in the final pace or two of completing the play. Mitchell has already accumulated a laundry list of injuries by age 27. He’s finally been able to stay on the field for the most continuous stretch of his career, but has looked afraid to put himself in harm’s way.

That hesitancy cropped up almost immediately during Opening Day weekend, when Mitchell made his first atypical failed attempt of the year against the Chicago White Sox.

Based on the trajectory of the ball and how much ground Mitchell had to cover, Statcast assigned him a 40% catch probability for this play. It was far from a routine opportunity, but it’s the kind he has historically made with ease. As he usually does, Mitchell made it to the ball, but once it appeared he might need to dive for it, he slowed down and got tangled up as he reached for the catch while trying to stay on his feet. Ironically, he could have caught this one on the run had he kept closing in at full speed, but that hesitation to lay out thwarted his attempt.

Here’s a similar play from the Brewers’ last homestand against the San Diego Padres:

With just a 5% catch probability, this was a far more challenging play that required a dive to complete. The fact that Mitchell got there speaks to his athleticism and his jump on the ball. He did lay out for this one, but it was a half-hearted attempt in which he never fully left his feet. This time, the irony lay in Mitchell jamming his wrist on the awkward dive, thus injuring himself in an apparent attempt to avoid injury from a harsher landing.

Mitchell’s most egregious misplays have come on fly balls taking him back near the wall, where he has frequently pulled up to avoid a hard collision. His worst non-catch of the season also came during the Padres series, when he missed a ball with a 99% catch probability. By slowing down as he neared the warning track, he forced himself to leap backward toward the ball, and it popped out of his glove.

He had a similar issue in Miami less than a month earlier. This time, in addition to slowing down, Mitchell turned his eyes toward the wall and braced himself before making the catch, turning a would-be flyout into a triple. As another play with just a 5% catch probability, this was a challenging one, but he had already completed the hard part of getting there. It’s an opportunity an athlete of his caliber should convert.

Mitchell hasn't lost the tools of an excellent center fielder, but if he keeps failing to use them, it should become a factor in how the Brewers construct their lineups. This version of Mitchell is not demonstrably better in center than Jackson Chourio, who posted -4 DRS and 1 FRV in over 700 innings there last season. Chourio started up the middle in consecutive games on Sunday and Monday, allowing Pat Murphy to start Jake Bauers, Andrew Vaughn, and Christian Yelich in the same lineup for the best version of the Brewers’ offense.

Because of Mitchell’s upside, that may not become the permanent arrangement any time soon. Even if Chourio starts making more appearances in center, Mitchell will get semi-regular starts as long as he’s healthy and providing nearly average offense. But the longer Mitchell’s cautious approach leaves his defense lagging behind his ability, the less convincing the argument that he’s part of Milwaukee’s best starting nine.