Brewers-Dodgers NLCS Preview: What Milwaukee Needs to Do to Reach the World Series

Well, well, well. We meet again.

After facing off in last year’s NLCS, the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers will once again go head-to-head with a trip to the World Series on the line. Brewers fans remember all too well how last year’s series went down. The Brewers themselves do, too. Milwaukee will need more than the revenge factor on its side this time around, though. The Dodgers are built for October baseball. They’re looking to become the first team since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees to win three straight World Series titles, and their roster is essentially an All-Star team.

This should be an awesome series, with (arguably) the two best teams in Major League Baseball going at it for a second straight year. What should we expect from this series, and what does Milwaukee need to do to knock off the reigning champions? Let’s start with what to expect.

Pitching Will Dominate

If you thought the NLDS was low-scoring, buckle up. These are the two best pitching staffs in the National League, and last year’s NLCS saw them combine for just 19 runs in four games. Both staffs have gotten even better since then. The Dodgers added Tarik Skubal and Edwin Díaz, among others, while Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson have emerged as legitimate aces for Milwaukee. If you’re into pitcher’s duels, this is the series for you. Neither team should have much trouble finding quality arms to throw at the other, and that could make every offensive opportunity that much more important. A couple of mistakes could be the difference between winning and losing a game, especially if these teams continue to keep scoring to a minimum.

The Running Game

I also think we’re going to see both teams be aggressive on the basepaths. Coming into this series, the Brewers and Dodgers had very different approaches to stealing bases. Milwaukee was one of the most aggressive teams in baseball in that department, while Los Angeles was among the least so. However, the Dodgers were efficient when they did attempt to steal. In a series that figures to be extremely close, getting runners into scoring position by swiping a bag could create a massive advantage. That should be especially important for Milwaukee, considering the Dodgers haven’t been particularly effective at throwing out opposing runners. According to Statcast, Brewers pitchers were fifth-best in the league this year at holding runners, allowing a net of 21 fewer bases than the average staff. The Dodgers, though allowed 19 more bases to be taken, fourth-worst in the bigs. The Brewers' edge in this department could become an important one.

There's No Slug on the Ground

So, what does Milwaukee need to do to take down the reigning back-to-back champions? For starters, the Brewers’ pitching staff needs to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. Milwaukee finished the regular season with the third-highest groundout-to-flyout ratio in the league, and that approach will be especially important against a lineup full of some of the best power hitters in the sport. The Dodgers have pop throughout their order, and giving those hitters opportunities to elevate the ball could be a recipe for disaster. As I mentioned earlier, this should be a relatively low-scoring series. One mistake up in the zone could be enough to decide a game, particularly when Los Angeles has so many hitters capable of turning one into a home run. The Brewers need to live down in the zone, generate ground balls, and limit the number of opportunities they give the Dodgers to do damage in the air. Easier said than done, of course, but it will be a key factor in determining whether Milwaukee can advance.

Scoring in the Red Zone

The Brewers don’t necessarily need to put up huge offensive numbers to win this series. But when they get runners into scoring position, they need to find ways to bring them home. Stringing together timely hits, taking advantage of defensive mistakes, and putting pressure on the Dodgers’ pitching staff could go a long way toward getting Milwaukee over the hump. The running game can be part of this. A well-timed bunt could be involved, too. But the lifeblood of the team is the ability to find grass when the defense is stretched by runners being on base. They couldn't do it consistently against the Padres. Whether it means seeing the ball deeper or sitting on a particular pitch more often with the intention to ambush, Brewers batters have to find ways to attack when a single is likely to equal a run.

Hendo and Mis, Then Who Dis?

Finally, the back end of the starting rotation needs to step up. Behind Misiorowski and Henderson, Milwaukee’s rotation is a lot more uncertain. Winning the games those two start will be critical, but the Brewers can't expect them to do all the heavy lifting. Guys like Robert Gasser, Dustin May, and even Kyle Harrison or Shane Drohan will need to make meaningful contributions. Gasser delivered a strong start in Game 4 on Wednesday night, while May looked good through the first couple of innings of Game 3. Milwaukee will need more of that from its starters as the series progresses.

Their bullpen will play a major role in this matchup, but their impact is severely limited if the Brewers’ starters can't give the team a lead to protect—or at least a tie to maintain. Getting quality outings from the back of the rotation (even if that means only three or four innings at a time) will be vital as the setting of the series switches from Milwaukee to Los Angeles.

The Brewers have the pitching talent, speed, and overall roster to make this a competitive series. But beating the Dodgers will require them to execute in the moments that matter most. Milwaukee can't afford to waste opportunities at the plate, give away free bases, or let the Dodgers take advantage of mistakes on the mound. If the Brewers can limit the damage, manufacture runs and get enough out of their rotation beyond their top two starters, they have a legitimate chance to avenge last year’s NLCS loss and claim their first NL pennant. The Dodgers are going to be a difficult opponent to beat. But if Milwaukee can clean up a few of the issues that plagued it last October, there's no reason this team can't find themselves playing for a World Series title.

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