Can Brewers Hitters Find a Way to Beat Vaunted Dodgers Starters This Time?

The Brewers know how quickly a series against the Dodgers can get away from them. In the 2025 NLCS, Milwaukee fell behind 0-2 as the Dodgers' rotation stifled an offense that struggled to find its footing, particularly at home. They can't afford a repeat.

The challenge starts with four formidable starters: Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. They offer an intimidating mix of power, deception, command and movement, with few easy at-bats available to left- or right-handed batters,

There is no single formula for beating them. Against Skubal, the Brewers must punish mistakes without chasing his best pitches. Against Snell, patience and deep counts could be the key. Yamamoto demands precision in the swing decision, while Glasnow presents a different test of discipline against elite velocity and devastating breaking balls.

Milwaukee won't have many opportunities to do damage. The challenge is making those that come count, and ensuring the series doesn't get away from them before they find their footing. Today, let's take a look at how best to attack the two hurlers who'll toe the rubber in the series-opening games at Uecker Field in Milwaukee.

Game 1 Starter: Tarik Skubal

The reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner in the American League, Tarik Skubal is one of the most dominant pitchers in the sport. Possessing a 1.97 ERA in seven postseason starts and averaging six and a half innings per outing, Skubal's combination of an overpowering fastball and a deadly changeup leads his pitch mix to both right- and left-handers, and allows him to manipulate timing, break barrels, and get a lot of swing-and-miss—usually. The good news is, Skubal's last start showed perhaps his most hittable pitch shapes since his first game back from injury.

If we compare his playoff starts in 2025 with his start against the Braves in the National League Division Series, the stuff ratings are significantly down, not because of velocity, but because of their shape:

Skubal had less ride on his four-seam fastball; less vertical and horizontal movement on his signature changeup; and less sink on his sinker. The results were intriguing. He generated virtually no meaningful swing-and-miss with his fastballs, while the sinker was hit harder than usual, even if much of that contact stayed on the ground. In fact, every pitch type Skubal threw against the Braves averaged more than 90 MPH in exit velocity. He largely survived by avoiding barrels and keeping the ball away from optimal launch angles.

If it seems like I'm picking at hairs here, I am. Skubal is still an overpowering monster when he's at his best, and the Brewers will need timely hitting (perhaps one big swing) to put runs on the board against him. That being said, if they're going to do damage, they'll need to capitalize on fastballs over the heart of the plate.

Skubal isn't going to beat himself with walks. If Milwaukee is passive, he'll attack this lineup with an 80th-percentile zone rate and a 94th-percentile in-zone swing-and-miss rate. If the Brewers get too aggressive, they'll run into his 97th-percentile chase rate. They need to thread the needle: be aggressive enough to punish a fastball in the zone, but disciplined enough to avoid chasing the pitches that make Skubal so difficult to hit.

That challenge looks slightly different depending on which side of the plate a hitter occupies. Skubal is more predictable against left-handed hitters, opening with a sinker or four-seam fastball roughly 75% of the time. The sinker has been particularly effective, boring in on the hands and generating weak contact, but lefties have been able to do damage against the four-seamer. It carries a .541 expected weighted on-base average on contact (xwOBACON), a substantial figure:

Skubal can still generate plenty of swing-and-miss with the four-seamer at the top of the zone, but when he leaves it over the middle of the plate, the Brewers need to be ready to attack. It's one of the easiest pitches to barrel against him, particularly compared with the sinker and changeup, which Skubal typically uses to generate hard contact on the ground. Expect Milwaukee to use a balanced lineup. Skubal's high arm angle makes him less deceptive against same-side hitters than most pitchers, giving left-handed hitters a better chance to see the ball out of his hand.

Right-handed hitters see more of the four-seam/changeup combination, and Skubal is comfortable throwing the changeup in any count. It's an incredible swing-and-miss pitch, but it can be hit when hitters are sitting on it. Right-handers have barreled the pitch at a 9.2% clip. That's not a particularly high number, but it's enough to represent an opportunity when Skubal misses his spot. Beyond that, Milwaukee may simply have to wait for him to make a mistake with his breaking ball.

The Brewers have already shown they can make Skubal work. In the middle of August, they scored two runs (only one earned) across seven innings against him, collecting seven hits and two walks. Their approach was straightforward: largely ignore the changeup and sit on his fastballs. The changeup was the only pitch against which Skubal recorded a swing-and-miss rate above 20%.

That patience will be vital again. Milwaukee doesn't need to beat Skubal by chasing his best pitches. They need to make him work, stay off the changeup when they're not in a position to drive it, and wait for the fastball or a mistake pitch they can punish. Swing decisions will be a vital component, and when they get an opportunity to drive the ball, they can't afford to miss. There won't be many such opportunities; nobody said this would be easy.

Game 2 Starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

You could argue that, in an elimination game, there isn't a pitcher in baseball you'd rather have taking the rubber than Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With his complete pitch mix, impeccable command, and feel for manipulating both spin and velocity, Yamamoto is what you'd get if you designed a pitcher in a laboratory. That doesn't make him unhittable, but it does make him an incredible challenge to solve.

Yamamoto finished the regular season with a 0.87 WHIP, backed by the command to work in the shadow areas of the strike zone without leaving pitches over the heart of the plate. His splitter was his most frequently-used offering, generating ample chase while proving effective against both left- and right-handed hitters. More than 80% of the pitches hitters see will be some variation of his fastball or splitter, but it's the way this particular four-pitch mix works together that makes him so difficult to handle. The pitches tunnel off one another, disrupting a hitter's timing and making it difficult to find the barrel consistently.

Yamamoto has allowed three or more runs in just eight starts this season. Only one of those outings lasted fewer than six innings, and he surrendered no more than six hits in any of them. Two featured four walks, which certainly contributed to the damage, while the other six saw him issue no more than two free passes. Seven of those eight starts also included a home run allowed.

So, what does that tell us about how to approach him?

Scoring against Yamamoto often requires a combination of timely hitting and capitalizing on the few mistakes he makes. The Brewers may need to string together hits with runners in scoring position, or punish a mistake with a home run when they have men aboard. Yamamoto doesn't hand out many free passes, so opportunities to build a big inning will be limited. When runners do reach, the Brewers will need to make those opportunities count.

One potential vulnerability stands out this season: the four-seam fastball. Looking at expected slugging by pitch type, the damage against his four-seamer has increased. Yamamoto has allowed 20 home runs this year, with 14 coming off his splitter or four-seamer.

When hitters square up the four-seamer, it tends to be in the air, so damage is always a possibility. The splitter presents a different kind of opportunity. Its movement is influenced in part by seam-shifted wake effects, making its behavior hard to glean from simple spin measurements. Even with Yamamoto's exceptional feel for the pitch, the occasional mistake can leave a splitter in a hitter's wheelhouse. That's the kind of offering a hitter can turn on; Christian Yelich comes to mind as someone who has done damage against hittable changeups and splitters this season.

The theme here is clear: the Brewers' swing decisions will have to be impeccable, particularly against Yamamoto's splitter and four-seamer. If they can identify a four-seam fastball that leaks into the heart of the plate, there's an opportunity to do damage. His four-seamer has allowed a 61% hard-hit rate, a .290 expected batting average, and a .775 expected slugging average. Those are numbers the Brewers can look to exploit, provided they can distinguish a hittable fastball from one designed to catch the edge.

That's the challenge with Yamamoto. Even when he misses his spot, he has the pitch mix and feel to disrupt a hitter's timing and limit the damage. The Brewers will need patience without passivity—the discipline to recognize when a mistake is there to be hit. It will be a devilish game of cat-and-mouse. If they can't access the long ball, it could be a troublesome day at the office.

Can the Brewers Really Dent One of the Best Rotations in Postseason History?

The Brewers aren't going to bludgeon the Dodgers' rotation with their raw talent. No one has shown the ability to do that. They may not get many opportunities to do damage. But they don't need to. The key to beating the aces of the Dodgers is to stay aggressive and swing with conviction. The strikes will be there. You can't help these two out by expanding the zone, but when the hittable fastball is there, you can't be late for it or underneath it. Last year, this group—less Skubal, but with Shohei Ohtani more or less at his best on the mound—mowed the Brewers down. The team will have to prove they're better, but also that they're capable of withstanding great pitching and making the mental and physical adjustments required to turn the pressure way up when those pitchers falter.

How would you go about hitting Skubal and Yamamoto? Join the discussion below. Come back early this week, as we break down Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow in similar ways.

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