Cash Considerations to Closer: The Brewers' Trevor Megill Masterclass

Image courtesy of Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Brewers Video

On April 30, 2023, the Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins struck a trade that didn't generate much excitement from either fan base. Milwaukee acquired right-handed reliever Trevor Megill in exchange for cash considerations and a player to be named later, who eventually turned out to be Taylor Floyd. At the time, Megill was a 29-year-old with just 68 2/3 career innings under his belt. It seemed unlikely to pay huge dividends for either side. Then, the Brewers' pitching factory got their hands on Megill, and the rest is history.

Megill has developed into one of baseball's most reliable late-inning relievers, establishing himself as a legitimate shutdown closer. Since the start of the 2024 season, he's converted 81 of 93 save opportunities, with the saves total tied for the sixth-most in baseball during that span. He's also finished every season with an ERA of 2.72 or lower, and his underlying numbers suggest he's been every bit as good as his results indicate.

He’s been just as effective on the biggest stage, allowing only one run across 13 career postseason innings. He fills up the strike zone, gets hitters to chase pitches outside of it, and generates plenty of swings and misses. Even more impressively, he's accomplished all of this with just two pitches in his arsenal. So, what have the Brewers done to turn Megill into one of the game's better closers?

What I like most about Milwaukee's approach is that they haven't forced Megill to completely overhaul his skill set. Instead, they've made some small adjustments, allowing his existing strengths to play up. One of the biggest changes has been his pitch mix. Before joining the Brewers, Megill regularly threw a slider, but he abandoned the pitch after arriving in Milwaukee. Since then, he's relied almost exclusively on his four-seam fastball and curveball.

When Megill first arrived in Milwaukee, his curveball averaged around 83 MPH. It now sits closer to 88. That increase in velocity has come at the expense of some of the pitch's movement, but the results speak for themselves. In 2022, the season before he was traded, his curveball generated a whiff rate of just 28.6%. Since joining the Brewers, that number has climbed to at least 46.5% in every season. That's a massive jump, and it starts with how his pitches work together.

Megill already had a fairly steep arm angle (around 51°) before the trade. The Brewers have taken that a step further, pushing him up to approximately 54°. That adjustment has helped his four-seam fastball play up, particularly in the upper part of the strike zone. Typically, pitchers with more over-the-top arm angles generate significant vertical movement on their four-seamers. Megill had struggled to get that kind of movement out of his fastball, but Milwaukee has helped him add roughly 2.5 inches of rise. That might not sound like much, but imagine the width of a baseball bat. Two-and-a-half inches can be the difference between squaring up a pitch and missing it entirely.

Now that hitters have to respect the movement on Megill's fastball, his curveball has become even more effective. He can start both pitches in similar locations, making it difficult for hitters to distinguish between them before it's too late, and the relatively small velocity gap between the two only adds to the deception. That's really been the name of Megill's game over the last four years. With only two pitches to work with, he has to keep hitters guessing, and he's done an excellent job of making that limited arsenal work.

His bat-tracking data illustrate just how effective he's been. Hitters rarely square him up, even when they're able to get the timing right. They're often on top of his curveball or swinging underneath his four-seamer, struggling to make quality contact against either pitch. The curveball has been particularly difficult to recognize, with hitters frequently getting out in front of it.

That combination of deception, velocity, and movement has made Megill incredibly difficult to barrel up, and it showed in his results. He allowed just one home run and 10 total extra-base hits all season.

You don't need a six-pitch arsenal to succeed in the major leagues. Sometimes, you just need two pitches that work together, and Megill is the perfect example. He throws hard, fills up the strike zone, and keeps hitters off balance. Milwaukee hasn't reinvented him so much as refined what makes him effective, and those adjustments have turned an inexpensive acquisition into one of baseball's most dependable closers.

Now, Megill is Pat Murphy's guy in the ninth inning for a Brewers team just four wins from a championship. Not a bad return for cash considerations and a player to be named later.