Wednesday Night's Was the Biggest Brewers Win Since 1982

Yes, it's nice to have the monkey off their back. No longer can anyone say that the Brewers haven't won on the road in the postseason since 2018. Yes, it was nice to see the formula work to perfection on the mound, even with Robert Gasser as the first hurler of the night. When the Brewers closed out the Padres Wednesday night, though, they didn't just achieve an important symbolic or moral victory. The significance of the win wasn't in the resilience it took to achieve it. It's much more concrete than that, and much greater.

Winning this series in four games was huge. It might well be the difference between winning and losing in the NLCS. Jacob Misiorowski did briefly warm up in the ninth inning, but he never had to truly fire it up, let alone come into the game. More importantly, he won't have to pitch Friday in Milwaukee to save the team's season. Instead, he gets another clean start in a Game 1 at Uecker Field, facing the Dodgers as the tone-setter in his team's bid to avenge their loss in last year's version of this matchup.

The difference between Misiorowski having to start Game 5 against the Padres and getting to start Game 1 against the Dodgers is probably a full expected win in the series for Milwaukee. Firstly, there's much less chance that Misiorowski is limited to one start in the series. Secondly, his first start will come at home, where he's been much better this year (for a tangible reason: the mound there is better for him than when the Brewers are on the road), rather than coming at Dodger Stadium in Game 3. In other words, in most of the cases in which he gets an extra start this way, it's a start at home that's added to the mix.

Thirdly, if the series should go to seven games, Misiorowski is likely to be available in relief, whereas he would only get a second start if the series went seven games had he pitched Game 3. He's worth about 1.3 runs above average per 20 batters faced, and he probably picked up 20 expected batters faced in this series by getting to pitch in Game 1 of it. If you take even one or two runs away from the Dodgers in a given game because Misiorowski is available to work it instead of (for instance) Chad Patrick or Shane Drohan, you dramatically alter the balance of that game.

Just as importantly, the Brewers will get extra rest for their relievers, whom Pat Murphy (unsurprisingly) rode hard in this series. Top three bullpen options Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby and Trevor Megill combined for 10 appearances and 12 2/3 innings pitched. If the series had gone to Game 5, the trio might all have appeared again. At a minimum, they probably would have added another seven outs to that collective tally, and they'd have entered the NLCS with just one day of rest. Instead, all three (and the rest of the staff) get three days to relax and recover.

Multiple Brewers position players showed signs of fatigue or nagging injury either late in the season or during this San Diego series, too. Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, Joey Ortiz and William Contreras will all benefit from an extra couple days to prepare for the series ahead. Last fall, the emotion and the stakes of the Brewers' series against the archrival Cubs seemed to drain them, and they had little turnaround time before the NLCS began. Their win over the Padres was extreme;y hard-fought, too, but they don't come out of it seeming nearly as spent. They didn't celebrate as rowdily. This team is ready to take on Los Angeles this fall, in a way they weren't last year, and their win in Game 4 Wednesday night set the stage for them to do just that. It was, arguably, the biggest win the franchise has had since they claimed their only pennant, in Game 5 of the 1982 ALCS. It might be remembered as the game that facilitated the team's push to a second such flag.

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