CarolinaTommy

I think ESPN's new coverage of college baseball may have an impact on the dynamics of the amateur draft. All of a sudden high school athletes, if recruited by top college programs, have the opportunity to play on nationally television (ESPN) during the regular season. Yes, college baseball games have been covered in the past on Fox Sports (particularly in the south), but we are increasingly seeing more and more college baseball on television the last few years. It makes college baseball more glamorous. The minor league professional life seems to be less desirable when you can go to college and play on ESPN. Although, minor league facilities have become nicer over the past few years. I think it is interesting. Will we see more kids go and play college baseball so they can be on ESPN? Perhaps. From a marketing a promotional viewpoint, baseball fans are going to become more acclimated with college baseball and possibly help the sport grow. I saw highlights of a Miami-Georgia Tech baseball game on SportsCenter this morning. Its interesting.

Arkansas has a very good baseball team, no doubt, but I don't really see it as being fair having two teams from different regions matching up with each other in February. These teams from cold-weather regions are dealt a bad hand each year when they go down to Texas, Florida, etc. Many teams, such as Minnesota, are seeing the outdoor diamond for the first time since fall when they match up against other teams this early in the season. I only mention this because I'm biased (from Ohio) and I feel bad for these teams to get off to such a difficult start to their season, which hurts their chances of making an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament. There is obvious bias here. The times when cold-weather teams can play warm-weather teams are pre-conference season, which happens to be February and part of March. For example, it would be more fair to have Minnesota and Ohio State match up in February, rather than Minnesota and Florida State. The two geographic entities are at different points in their seasons. It's not really fair, but unfortunately there is not much that can be done about it.

Thanks a lot for posting all of this stuff this college season again, Patrick. I am no expert, and I have seen Lowrie play only a couple of times, but I would chalk his poor offensive summer up to an abberation, more than a concern. I think he has excellent bat control and has a real tendency to put the good part of the bat on the ball. I will sign up for the Jed Lowrie can hit with the wooden bat club. I have to say that I'm not really worried about him at all. I think some of his detractors though are a lack of flare and only average speed. Whenever I watched Lowrie run, he could never kick it into the next gear, which would be concerning if you're into speed considering his body size, which is not very big. Patrick already has hinted at it, but I can see Lowrie going in the 10-15 overall range, and I am not just saying that because he's off to a good start. Players similar to him have landed in that range (Aaron Hill, Chris Burke, Russ Adams, Khalil Greene, etc.). I would not hesitate to associate Lowrie with that cast of characters.

Thanks for the heads up on BA, Patrick. I really oughta fork out the money for a subscription.

EdgarDiaz, Buck is an interesting pitching prospect. I need to get a subscription again to Baseball America to get their opinions on some of these guys (now that spring is coming around). I saw him match up with Mark McCormick this summer. I think if you look up "sinker-slider pitcher" in the '05 college baseball dictionary, you would see Buck. He's got some very nasty sink and run on his fastball (comfortably 88-92) and he's got a wicked slider off of that pitch. He looked deadly against righties on the day I saw him. He's a strong guy, too. Plays football. Scott Erickson is my best comparison. He looked extremely difficult to hit off with the wooden bat the way he aggressively worked in and out with his sinker/slider combo.

Patrick, btw, your tape is in the mail. I apologize for the horrible delays.

Past the hoopla of the first round picks, there are some solid prospects that I think could make interesting drafts in June. These are some guys that I have seen play personally over the past few years and have intrigued me, despite not being obvious first round selections James Avery RHP - Niagara University - Extremely interesting prospect, in my opinion. He has all of the tools to be a first round draft pick, and yet he flies beneath the radar of so many scouts and publications. I saw him pitch in the Cape League this summer. He struggled, and he has struggled in the college season against mediocre competition. 6'1", 200 lbs, good body. Good, over-the-top delivery. Throws downhill with arm-side run with his fastball, which I saw at 89-94 MPH for 3 innings. The makings of a good change-up, and a curveball, which is still undeveloped, but I think the potential is there for a good one. Really can struggle with his command, but he is a raw Canadian that could elevate himself to top prospect status soon. Brent Lillibridge IF/OF - University of Washington - Interesting tool set. He's athletic, runs well, and has wiry-strength. He reminds me of a dilluted version of Alfonso Soriano. He has a long swing (uses a long bat) which causes for strike outs, but he can put a charge into a ball when he makes contact, although he'll probably have to shorten up some. He can probably run a 6.5-6.6 40-yard dash, he has pop in his bat, and he can handle many different position. He struggles some in the infield now, but with his speed and average arm strength, he can play CF. Cesar Carillo RHP - University of Miami - His stock is going to go up by June, so it may be a moot point to talk about him being undervalued presently. He's probably going to anchor this top college team and do well. Undersized, small frame, but he's got very good arm strength and he knows how to pitch. Pedro Martinez-type body. He can throw mid-upper nineties. If he can be had outside of the first round, he'd be a great pick-up, but I don't see that happening. Very underrated!!!!! Jacoby Ellsbury CF - Oregon State University - I normally do not mention these types of prospects. Ellsbury is presently a speed baseball player that slaps the ball around and causes problems with his running skills, but I have seen him play in 7+ games and I just got a feeling with him that he could become a Steve Finley-type player in 5-8 years. Mike Costanzo 1B/3B/RHP - Coastal Carolina University - Strength player with a very good body. He takes a good rip at the ball at the plate and he has plus arm strength. We'll see if he'll be able to handle professional pitching as a positional player, if not, he's got a shot at being a relief pitcher. Good body and good power tools with some good athleticism mixed in there -- interesting guy! Chris Robinson C - University of Illinois - He's just a solid catching prospect. Good catch and throw skills and he can handle the bat. He's an under the radar guy but could develop into a useful catcher down the line. Not too much upside. Chris Nicoll RHP - University of California-Irvine - Does not have spectacular pitching tools that will knock you out. If he were 6'4", he'd be gaining a lot more attention. Very loose arms, athletic body actions. Pitches at 87-91 MPH and has very good command of three solid pitches. Good slider. The ball comes out of his hand very well, little effort or tension. He can deal and he has some projection in him, despite being a 6'1" guy. Graham Taylor LHP - Miami University - OK, I may be biased with these Ohio baseball players, but he could be a steal as a lefty relief guy. He's going to start for Miami University this year, most likely, and be underwhelming at 85-88 MPH with a traditional 3/4 arm slot, but he can come down from the side and be very tough against left handers. Very tough slider from the side-arm slot he can use. He's got a mechanical delivery, not very fluid, which could drive some away from him. Draft him, sign him, move him to the bullpen as a situational lefty and he could have value. He might slip past the draft in '05 and make a fantastic senior sign next year. Alan Horne RHP - University of Florida - We all know the story with him. Top talent in high school, turns down big bucks to go college. Has Tommy John surgery, falls off the radar screen. He was throwing pretty well this summer, but I am sure looked only a fraction of what he was in high school. I had him at 88-91 MPH with his fastball and he was throwing a good curve, but without any "bite". My rationale is that he's a good value. He'd be a GREAT value if he were a senior this year, which I thought he would be, but apparently he's listed of JR status on the UF website. Anthony Gressick IF/OF/RHP - Ohio University - I'd be interested in other scouts opinions on Gressick because I have never really heard them. He had Tommy John surgery and couldn't pitch in 2004, but he still DH'ed and hit the heck out of the ball. He's going to get dogged on because of his size, but he's a fantastic two-way player and arguably the best player in the MAC this year. His freshman year I had him at 87-90 MPH with his fastball. He's got a "sneaky quick" fastball that he can get by guys. He's also a great hitter with athleticism to play 3B, or even a corner outfield position LF/RF. He's one of my favorite college baseball players. He just does a lot of things well, and comes up big when his team needs him. I may be biased as a former student at Ohio U and that I have seen him play frequently. Matt Long RHP - Miami University - I think he's a very talented 6'5", 200 lbs RHP, but things just have not yet materialized for him. I saw him as a freshman and he was throwing a very easy 88-91 MPH with a loose arm and easy throwing action. He knocked off a few good, hard curveballs. He really struggled, I thought he looked a little unsure of himself on the mound and he made some mistakes, which I think had a domino-effect that unraveled him. He showed poor command, but he has some very good raw material. He threw pretty tall and kind of reminded me of Aaron Sele, but without the devastating curve that he once had. Had arm surgery and may not be 100% this year, but could be a really good value for someone willing to take a chance on him as a junior sign. Those are just some guys too look at in round 3-10 that may often be overlooked. I personally like them...just guys that I am interested in and could make good "value" picks. Cesar Carillo very likely is not around by the 3rd round, but I just wanted to jump on his bandwagon before everyone else does. I don't know how BA rated him, but I'd be willing to bet he's lower than where he should be. I'd also like to mention that I'm a big fan of Ryan Mullins LHP - Vanderbilt University. I see him as a cross between Jeremy Sowers and Mark Mulder (two of my favorite pitchers!). He can come across his body a little much sometimes, but he's great, in my opinion. Great life on his pitches, projection, pitchability, tall and left-handed...all of the ingredients to intensely excite me! I'd make him a top 10 overall pick if it were up to me, but that's just my opinion!

I saw him play this summer and he was one of my favorites. Like colbyjack, I agree that the Dustin Pedroia comparison is not fair -- Pennington has tools that Pedroia does not. Pennington runs better and throws better, but Pedroia also does some things that many others cannot. Pedroia plays the game with great fluidity. He is just one of those guys that is paying attention to only the correct cues going on in the game and anticipates things as well as anything. Watching him take infield practice is almost like seeing a heat-seeking missle go after grounders. I think that Pennington is worthy of a first round draft pick in that he has solid run and throw tools, can handle the bat well, and is an up-the-middle guy. If Pennington moves over to 2nd, it won't be because of his throwing arm, in my opinion -- he's got the strength.

I hypothesize, but cannot yet substantiate on, that a early round draft picks are overvalued in regard to how much money is spent on them. First round draft picks in baseball simply do not have very good returns, and putting 2 million into a guy that has a 50/50 shot at merely making the major league level seems a bit "iffy" to me. It is strange how the player compensation thing works out, too. I'd go on about how I don't like it; how teams that were unable to sign free agents (likely b/c they did not have the money) are perhaps PENALIZED by being forced to select (not necessarily sign) a draft prospect that costs more money than he is worth! I think there are a lot of issues with the amateur draft as it is now. It might not be a horrible idea to abolish the thing and sign amateur players as free agents, but capping how much money teams can spend on them per year.

I agree with colbyjack on his assessment of Romanczuk. That is just how I see him as a draft prospect right now, but I could even see him fall past the middle of the second round if he doesn't perform well this spring. He could be the type of guy that sticks around for his senior season, but that is an extremely premature assessment. That is dependent upon his personal aspirations and I am in no place to judge him on that. I get a Denny Neagle-type vibe with Mark Romanczuk. I've seen him pitch at 86-89 MPH. I most recently saw him pitch this summer on Team USA. He stays on top of his pitches well. A bit of a wide body, kind of similar to former Stanford pitcher Mike Gosling. His best pitch is a curveball, IMO. Mixes a slider in there, too. For a polished pitcher, I think he struggled with his change-up the last time I saw him. He does not have good arm speed with his change-up. He was telegraphing the pitch, which is something that I think keeps him out of the first round (at this point). If he can throw his slider, curve, fastball, AND change from the same arm slot with consistent arm speed (which he probably will someday) then he would be a better prospect. I think he needs some work and I personally do not think he is as polished as he is made out to be, but that's just my opinion!!

colby, Tyler Greene is interesting. I have seen him play a lot, and you probably have seen him as well, as GA Tech games are covered on cable TV often. He's definitely an athlete. He has an athletic, strong body. He has added some iron in his forearms since his high school days, adding more power with the bat. He is a legit runner, as well. At his size, he really runs quite well. I have never been too enamored with his arm strength but its workable from any position in the infield (a bit below average at 3rd, IMO). He's played extremely well in the summer, both with Team USA and on the Cape League, but underperformed with GA Tech. It seems like a lot of players have underperformed on that team the last couple of years -- is there something to that? He could be undervalued if he struggles again in the spring. He's pretty interesting. One thing that is really good with him is that he can handle SS, 2B and likely could play CF, too, should you need him to. He's got middle of the diamond versatility and some pop in the bat.

My argument is not in the college vs. prep thing. It is taking an economical and finacial approach to the baseball draft. I read Moneyball and I did not take directly the same thing away from it as others did, apparently. To me, it's not directly the high school vs. college debate, it's not entirely the statistics vs. scouting debate. Those are some important elements in this, but I think the prevailing theme in Moneyball is identifying undervalued assets. This is applicable to all aspects of life, particularly investing in the stock market, because that is basically what the draft is...a crap shoot. I think that the Athletics' pick of Ryan Webb, a high schooler from the Tampa, FLA area, I believe, could be an example of this type of economical thought. I don't necesarily care if a prospect is a HS pitcher or a college position player, but can you put a net present value dollar amount on him? If so, is he an over or undervalued asset? What are the secondary market characteristics (primary paradigm of competing teams)? Obviously, to get this type of information you have to use some scouting and statistical forms of evaluation, but what differs is in this type of approach is how you utilize those forms of evaluation.

I used to really value scouting because of its subjective interpretations and contributions. I haven't been following the baseball draft for all that long. I have made a point to try and go see (mainly) college players for nearly 4 years now. I hardly consider myself to be a talented or well-learned talent evaluator, but I understand some scouting practices. I have done associate scout work for a scout in my hometown and have learned a lot of things from him. I value his insight, "expertise", and experience, but I just think its very difficult to accurately identify amateur players on subjective practices and gut feelings. So many times I see players that I think are great and will be great professionals, but they fizzle out. Or, the converse can also happen, as it has a number of times with me. We've observed a slight paradigm shift in player evaluation with the Moneyball movement. At first, I hated Moneyball and what it stood for. I loved qualitative player evaluation and thought there was nothing better. I now believe there are huge flaws in that process. I have not thought all of this through, but I am merely saying that there may be a better way to train baseball scouts than what is represented in that article. I know it sounds silly, but maybe getting an MBA degree to build objective knowledge skills and more practical evaluation processes wouldn't be such a bad idea. I have little faith left for traditional scouting practices. They don't seem to be effective. I am not saying there is a right or wrong way to do things, because in the case of baseball scouting (especially baseball), that is impossible. I argue that there may be a more effective process out there somewhere.

" "In scout school, subjectivity is praised," Randolph said. "Mr. Pries asked us every day, 'Do you like that guy?' We learned gut feeling is a good thing. Liking a player can be the unscientific manifestation of a scout's years of experience and knowledge." " Maybe this is why the draft is such a volatile and risky investment! A "gut feeling" is a good thing? Drafted baseball prospects are investments by major league teams. How would you feel if your financial advisor suggested investing in a junk bond merely because of a gut feeling? The more I think about traditional baseball scouting, the more archaic I feel it is.

I agree with what colbyjack says. I saw him play with Team USA his freshman and sophomore seasons. During the summer after his freshman season, I thought he looked sub-standard defensively. I thought his arm looked below average. However, this summer his arm looked like it would play at the major league level. He still was not great defensively, as he lacks some mobility and quick skills, he looked better. He may have went from a 40 arm to a 50 arm over the year through his work, or his arm was just tired after his freshman season. Athleticism could be a question mark for him; his body type does not yield for great mobility. He's kind of smallish, which could make 1B a less attractive possibility. I would definitely say 6'1" is a stretch for him, he's likely below 6-foot. Not to say you could not stick him over there, however. I see him as a catcher 2-3 days a week, DH or 1B the other days. It would depend on the team's philosophy and how he progresses/regresses on his defensive game.

I am pretty familar with Ryan Braun, having seen him play a lot of times in the past. He can be exciting at times but he can also really look bad at the plate. He has poor swing mechanics which cause him trouble with outside breaking balls, which does not bode well for translation to the wooden bat, as colby mentions. However, I always found it peculiar that he has held good BB/K ratios despite the holes in his swing. I think it will be interesting how scouts evaluate him defensively. You can make an argument for any of 3B, SS, or 2B with him. He has a strong body and good athleticism (for his size), with some good baseball actions. I'd guess he's a 2nd-4th rounder right now, but if he cleans the swing up he could go first round.

Good for you as a Tigers fan. I think that Justin Verlander was the top prospect in the 2004 draft -- merely my opinion!

Patrick, I see you have the rankings up already for the '05 draft -- nice work. Re: the best college pitcher available comment -- I think that strategy will leave you in a bad place with this draft as the college arms are not great, in my opinion. I like Mark McCormick a lot, but, mostly as a late inning relief guy. Hochevar is good, I agree, Pelfrey is overrated, in my opinion. I like Ryan Mullins a lot, but he's not a top 10 guy. He almost reminds me of a 6'6" version of Jeremy Sowers, because the two have very good arm actions and deliveries, although Mullins comes across the body quite noticably. I think I've told Patrick already, but one prospect that I think is a very intriguing name is RHP James Avery of Niagara University. He's got some major issues with command, but if he can put it together, he's a top of the rotation pitcher, in my opinion. 90-94 MPH fastball, easy delivery, delivery like Curt Schilling, flashes a plus curveball and change. Perhaps a major tease, though!! Alex Gordon is a stud.

I agree with Colby on Alex Gordon. I saw the USA trials last weekend and Gordon is a stud. He's close to being a 5-tool 3B. There's not much he doesn't do!

Billy Buckner of South Carolina had a good outing last night against Florida. He went seven innings, struck out 7 and walked none. South Carolina has a really good team this year with interesting prospects. People really forget about Landon Powell, but he's making a case for him as a first round pick, in my opinion. They also have a good RF Brendan Winn, which is a transfer from St. Petersburg JC. I think LHP Matt Campbell is one of the most underrated prospects in the draft and Aaron Rawl is a great college pitcher, even if he's a short RHP. They've got a frosh OF Campbell whose hitting very well. It's a really good program!

I don't think many people would agree that college baseball is the equivalent of high-A ball, it's lower than that. However, you are comparing apples and oranges in this case. Check Jeremy Guthrie's numbers at Stanford and then look at Jered Weaver. Jeremy Guthrie - 157.2 IP, 138 H, 36 BB, 136 K, 2.51 ERA Jered Weaver - 64.2 IP, 29 H, 9 BB, 100 K, 0.89 ERA That's a very large difference in regards to production. And if you want to knock on Long Beach State's competition, their strength of schedule ranking is 7th in the country. I don't think many have mentioned this, but while most people, including myself, were saying that Justin Verlander and Jeff Niemann were the tops of this college pitching class, colbyjack rated Jered Weaver #1. I think it is clear that Weaver is seperating himself from the rest of the college pitchers this year. Good call, colby.

I wrote the Beattie piece up and it should be on the Team One site here soon. I sent it to Jeff, but he hasn't received it yet. He might have gone out for the weekend. Anyways, Beattie was throwing 89-92 MPH with his fastball, reaching 93 MPH. He gave up 10 hits in the six innings he pitched. I think he has been the victim of the aluminum bat. Some of the hits he gave up would not have been hits had they been off of a wooden bat. At some points, he tried to throw his fastball by hitters, which is not his game. I think he looks like a borderline first rounder right now. I saw Kyle Schmidt yesterday and he has been at lower velocities his last few times out. He might be back at USF next year.

I also think its safe to say Niemann is back! I was a little worried there for a while but I suppose it was just a little rust.

I was at game watching Eric Beattie last night and heard that UF pitcher Justin Hoyman took himself out of the game after 7 or 8 pitches because of a bad back. A parent told me that the week before vs. U of Kentucky, Hoyman begged the coach to take him out because his back was hurting him. He actually threw well that night, but went 127 pitches. The weeks preceding that outing he went 129 pitches and 123.