mertonmonk

In his interview with the MLB gang last night Yellich commented that he can hit differently at Miller Park than he could before (obvious reference to Miami). The Brewers got him because his power would play better at Miller Park than in the much-more-spacious park the Marlins inhabit. Hitting the fly balls results in more dingers in Milwaukee - they would have been long outs in Miami. This is exactly what the Brewers envisioned and Yellich is capitalizing nicely.

I have to admit I'm fairly anxious to know what the Brewers are going to do in the next hour. I wonder how the players feel? If their phones ring in the next hour I'm sure they'll jump a bit. It seems like the Brewers are in 'have to do something' mode.

I've been to Maryvale and just about all the other ST ballparks. I've taken part in the Brewers Fantasy Camp twice at Maryvale. Yeah, the area itself isn't great, but the Brewers complex is outstanding. The cheap tickets at all the parks and the access to the players makes ST games more fun than regular season games. Just avoid Cubs games because they always sell out, so you can't just walk up and get tickets, and the Cubs park doesn't do any of the fun between-innings promotions that all the other teams do. The minor league complex at Maryvale is also very nice. You don't even have to buy tickets to go to the games - just show up. I sat next to Ned Yost's wife when their son was playing for a Brewers minor league team. I'm pleased the Brewers are staying in Maryvale and have it locked up for such a long time. That means they can develop that site to suit their needs and tickets probably won't go up much in cost. I believe the Brewers use that facility year-round as a rehab location, so it's not just a 6-week facility. Having the minor league complex right next to the major league fields also makes it easier for the team to shuttle players between games if they need more guys to cover a game, or if they just want to give someone a little exposure to major league level play. For people staying in Phoenix to watch games, there are great hotels everywhere and Maryvale and the other parks are all a short drive away. Phoenix is not a sprawling metropolis - most of the parks are 15-30 minutes from whatever hotel you pick.

I hope Broxton stays in for defense.

Why not the following - I know it doesn't alternate batters, but Walker and Villar can switch. J Villar CF (bats left) D Santana RF (bats right) R Braun LF (bats right) T Shaw 3B (bats left) N Walker 2B (bats left) E Thames 1B (bats left) M Pina C (bats right) E Sogard SS (bats left) Z Davies P (bats right)

Hopefully both players thrive for their 'new' teams. I root for lots of former Brewers players.... except when they play the Brewers.

Agreed - Jeffress can hopefully help the bullpen, but the glaring problem has been 0-for-RISP. To some degree that's a product of a lot of all-or-nothing hitters and right now we're getting more of the nothing part. It's way too reminiscent of the 2014 campaign, but the offense isn't as centered on Braun/Lucroy so there's a lot more hope that this offense can get untracked.

having been outrighted to the minor leagues before, jeffress would have the right to refuse the minor league assignment. Right - but considering his stats, what other team would take him? That might be a risk the team is willing to take, banking on the fact that Jeffress knows his best route back to MLB success is with the Brewers, even if that means toiling in milb until he regains form.

This is a low risk move, but we give up someone on AA and have to put the replacement on the MLB roster, unless they want to immediately put him through waivers are try to assign him to AAA. The Brewers haven't had many blowout games where they can throw someone who is throwing gas on a raging inferno until they hopefully figure things out.

Very true! If Villar can return even close to the 2016 version, if Braun can stay on the field and do what he normally does and if Guerra can return even close to his 2016 version... this will be a very deep and talented team. In the off-season it looked like there were holes at 3B, probably at C, maybe offensively at SS and RF, a wildcard at 1B and an unknown bullpen along with a shaky starting rotation. All the acquisitions, except Feliz, have paid huge dividends. The starting rotation isn't spectacular, but it's solid. The bullpen has had some rough patches but it's improving. I can't imagine that anyone would have guessed 50 wins by the All-Star game. The offense isn't relying on 1 player anymore - the entire lineup is dangerous at the plate. Even with Brewer Goggles on, how many wins will they have at the end of the season? 90 seems to be in the realm of possibilities. Will that be enough for a playoff spot?

Melvin's last few moves have proven to be very good for the team. I absolutely agree that it's good Melvin is still around, and that shows a rare humility you don't often see. Stearns has been pretty good too - there has been a lot of churn on the roster. Sometimes that churn seemed to be just for the sake of change, though I'm not sure that's a bad thing. The knowledge that you have to produce or expect to get traded/designated can be a good motivator. If it wasn't for Feliz's price-tag I wonder if he would have been DFA'd sooner? I don't mind them taking the risk on Felix - sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. I do appreciate the fact that they were willing to decide that it was time for a change, no matter how much payroll they had to eat.

What are the biggest changes from last year to this year? 1B: Carter (lots of HRs, not much else) to Thames/Aguilar - big improvement. 2B: Gennett platoon to Villar - looked shaky early this season, but Villar is improving nicely. I'd call this a draw. 3B: Perez - Shaw - big improvement RF: Having Santana play regularly has been a big improvement. C: Maldonado is serviceable - Pina/Bandy - huge improvement. Over all the offense is nicely improved and the defense is also better. The starting pitching has been more consistent. The bullpen is the area that has suffered the most, and it is the area most easily addressed. This can be addressed fairly easily before the playoffs, and this team has already played well against the best teams in MLB. It would be nice to have a lock-down ace starting pitcher, but in a best-of-7 series I like the chances our starting rotation gives us. Knebel has been lights out. Bridging the gap between starter and closer is the area that needs attention and this team could win a lot more games. The offense will score against any pitcher. This is a fun team to watch.

Gamecast shows that last pitch to Sogard as clearly outside. Was it really that bad of a call?

Odds that Thames gets tested today? That makes 16 and looking for more!

What about Juan Nieves? He pitched the only no-hitter for the Brewers.

media should have been 'media' (average).

I'm not sure how much of the difference between the Brewers and a team that ranks much higher on scoring runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs is just luck. Remember - a 10% change in batting average, from .200 to .300 is the difference between a DFA and an all-star, so a small streak of balls finding holes and your team could jump up that ranking pretty quickly. Yount and those of his era have said in interviews that the game is played very differently today. Uke had Yount in the booth with him a few weeks ago, and Yount said that with 2 strikes, all hitters changed their approach because strike outs were a huge stigma. He also said that they changed their approach to hitting based on the situation, which is why the shifts everyone employs now would not have worked then. Now everyone wants to hit the ball as hard as they can and take pretty much the same swing every time - rarely does anyone intentionally hit to a specific field just to move a runner. Most players are consumed with slugging percentage, believing (probably correctly) that will lead to bigger pay days. The 'team' aspect of offense just isn't as high a priority. It would be interesting to see how the media of how teams do in this category today compare to the media of teams in the 70's - maybe that would shed some light on the difference in approaches by an entire team. It seems that the Brewers, and lots of other teams, have lots of unproductive outs, and that would have been a much bigger deal a few decades ago. Just my thoughts.

I assume that Chase will go out for the 8th inning since he's pitching so well.

I can understand the nostalgia for players that have moved on to other teams. You see the players on your home team frequently, so it's not a big deal when you see them. When you see former players, it's like a family reunion. I don't care if people applaud for them once or forever. Just not something I'll get worked up about. Now, the strike-zone that the ump calls, or the state of our pitching staff, that I'll get worked up over! Priorities....

Augie and Rock are two of my favorites. I was at Brewers Fantasy Camp this year and tried catching for the first time. Augie had a left-handed catcher's mitt (they are hard to find!) and he let me use it all week. He's very knowledgeable about hitting and is great at giving guys tips on lots of aspects of the game. Rock runs the camp, so I've had a lot of time to talk to him as well. He has a great critique of the team and I find his take to be very insightful. I guess different people like different approaches.

To be a contending team, it will all come down to pitching. Jeffress and Smith are excellent, and building a bullpen around them isn't the biggest challenge. To win a 5 game series, having a legitimate ace is hard to overemphasize. If the Brewers don't have one at the time that they think they can compete, their current payroll should allow them to save up to buy one when the time comes. Let's assume the Brewers will have the financial resources to swing a big deal for an ace, there are always a few of them for sale every offseason. Nelson has shown that he can be a legitimate #2 or #3 (can he raise his stock further?). Peralta seemed like that guy a couple of years ago, and hopefully he's re-emerging. Anderson has been too erratic to know for sure. In a playoff scenario you really only need 3 or 4 highly reliable starters - the last starter or 2 can be skipped because the games are usually spread out enough. If Nelson and Peralta can both be reliable, then the Brewers really just need 1 other pitcher to join them and then it would be worth entering the annual starters sweepstakes. If the team doesn't have 3 reliable pitchers by the end of this year, there seems little point in making that purchase this winter, and instead try again before the '18 season. The offense is easier to address and there are a lot of players in the pipeline, so that's the lesser worry.

We went to the game on Sunday against the Marlins - Carter hit 2 HRs (doesn't he do that every game?). I hadn't seen him in person yet, and his homers seemed so effortless. It didn't look like he swung that hard, yet the balls left the park. I've heard Rock say he thinks that Bernie's slide is in jeopardy - and I think he's right. Seeing how he is hitting now, no one is missing KD and you have to wonder how Houston let this guy go so easily. Braun was pretty much the only part of the offense that worked last year, until KD started coming on at the end of the year. Braun is even better this year, but others are contributing big time. Lucroy has been mashing the ball - even if he's not getting the extra base hits, those will come. This latest offensive surge has been without Scooter, and he was hitting really well. Aaron Hill has been superb defensively wherever he has played, and his batting average is going north. The last 4 games the starters have actually done their job, so hopefully that trend will continue. Sure - this team may not be a world-beater, but it's competitive and fun to watch!

I'm not concerned by hush-hush reports about how a player acts behind closed doors - those reports are usually very inaccurate. Matt Garza with the 3.64 ERA from 2014 would be a nice part of the starting rotation. Matt Garza with the 5.63 ERA from 2015 is not. What will Matt Garza be in 2016? His career ERA is 3.99, so even a reversion to mean would be an improvement from 2015, but that's not the ERA of a #1 or #2 starter.

Most of the starting pitchers are young and controllable for a few years, and bullpens are usually built year-to-year so no need to focus on that apart from closer. LF = Davis (controlled through 2020), RF = Braun (2022), CF = Santana/Philips? (2020 or later), SS/2B = Segura (2019), Arcia (2020 or later), Gennett (2020), 1B = Lind (2017), C = Lucroy (2017), Maldonado (2019). So most position players are set for the timeframe you mention in addition to next year. Hopefully Santana and Philips can man CF for the next few years. The only obvious problems are 3B (no real option in that timeframe at all, including 2016), C (sign Lucroy to an extension beyond 2017 as there's a big dropoff to Maldonado) and 1B (Lind after 2017). The biggest problem in all of that is still 3B and it would be best if that can be solved with a controllable contract hitter/good defender this offseason. K-Rod is a free agent in 2017 as well, so that needs to be on the radar.

In baseball, you try to score more runs than your opponents (rocket science). Here is a listing of the postseason teams ranked by postseason OBP plus a few stats I'll explain: 1. Royals (.316, 5.6 r/g, 4.1 or/g, 1.5 dr/g) 2. Blue Jays (.309, 4.7 4/g, 5.2 or/g, -0.5 dr/g) 3. Astros (.301, 4 r/g, 4.2 or/g, -0.2 dr/g) 4. Dodgers (.293, 3.6 r/g, 4.4 or/g, -0.8 dr/g) 5. Mets (.282, 4.4 r/g, 3.5 or/g, 0.9 dr/g) 6. Cubs (.276, 3.6 r/g, 4.2 or/g, -0.6 dr/g) 7. Rangers (.260, 3.8 r/g, 5.2 or/g, -1.4 dr/g) 8. Cardinals (.255, 4.3 r/g, 5 or/g, -0.8 dr/g) 9. Pirates (.219, 0 r/g, 4 or/g, -4 dr/g) 10. Yankees (.156, 0 rg/, 3 or/g, -3 dr/g) r/g = runs per game (Royals scored 90 runs in 16 games, so 5.6 r/g) or/g = opponent runs per game (Royals allowed 66 runs, so 4.1 or/g) dr/g = difference in runs per game (this is r/g - or/g, so for the Royals it was 1.5) Runs per game is largely a measure of your offense, and a good predictor of that is OBP. Opponent runs per game is a combination of pitching and defense. Just to put the Brewers season into perspective, they had these stats: OBP = .307, 4.0 r/g, 4.5 or/g, -0.5 dr/g To drive up the r/g, the Brewers could focus on players who will drive up the team OBP. To drive down the or/g, the Brewers could focus on better defenders and/or pitchers. For offense, the Brewers would benefit from having Lucroy in the lineup more frequently in 2016 than he was in 2015. They need to decide if they want a platoon at 2B since Gennett had a .114 avg against lefties in 2015. A 3B who can produce offensively at 3B is a big need and there's no apparent help in the minors. Santana had a .231 avg in limited time, can he produce better than that to justify becoming the starting CF in 2016? Segura had 19 errors, tops on the team. Can he bounce back from that and retain the role of starting SS? Or might he be moved over to 2B to make room for Arcia? In Spring Training there needs to be at least some thought to moving Segura to 2B and starting Arcia at SS, or maybe Arcia at 2B and Gennett becomes a bench player or trade bait. Pitching-wise, not having Lohse will help with opponent runs. The post-all-star stats for the Brewers in 2015 make them more a middle-of-the-pack team from a pitching perspective, even with Garza's forgettable performance. Perhaps Garza can find more reliable performance in the bullpen and the crop of rookies can excel, or at least be an improvement over the 2015 starting staff. The Brewers aren't too far off from a positive dr/g. The Royals proved that good, consistent hitting will find a way to get past the best pitching. The Mets had the better pitching staff, but the Royals were able to keep battling until the pitchers made mistakes. With so few strike outs, they didn't have many unproductive outs. Those are the kind of hitters the Brewers need to focus on to improve their offense. So I think the biggest need is a reliable 3B hitter who is also a good defender. Not necessarily a slugger - I'd focus on avg and obp. Pitching is harder to buy with the payroll limitations the Brewers have, and there seem to be plenty of internal candidates, so focusing on 3B seems to be the best option.