Enscheff

I love that idea. Make him earn his next contact, then give him a QO and get an extra pick we wasted on the Cain deal. It makes too much sense to ever happen, right? Save face for Arrieta and Boras, keep the Brewers in the wild card picture, avoid the pick loss and bad contract that a small market team can so ill afford, and give Arrieta more than half of what he would get on a much longer deal anyway. Actually, it doesn’t make any sense. Whoever signs Arrieta is going to forfeit 1-2 draft picks. I would suggest a refresher course in the new QO rules.

Did you guys honestly let some wannabe forum heroes run off the guy who was willing to toss some inside info our way? It's a shame. He was the only reason I signed up for these forums. Your mods let you all down.

Santana for Salazar and Kipnis make any sense? Then prospects to the Rays for Odorizzi. I mean, Salazar or Clevinger would be a must in order to take on Kipnis. He's owed $28 Million over the next 2 seasons with a $2.5 Million buyout but his body seems to be failing him now so that deal could be a problem when we have to re-up arb guys. It fits the timeline though, if he works out. He'd be at 2B until Hiura is 100% ready and Dubon would come up in 2019 in the Sogard spot. I should have researched Kipnis' contract before suggesting that trade. For that cash they may as well sign Walker.

Santana for Salazar and Kipnis make any sense? Then prospects to the Rays for Odorizzi.

My guess: Santana for Salazar Prospects for Odorizzi

Right so far haha!

To the Braves for Teheran and Wentz!

The Yelich trade sure seems like an "all-in" move to me. Not in the least bit. Hes an all-star caliber player under control for 5 years. He can be flipped for prospects at any time. LOL, they are not going to flip Yelich. I would expect a Cain signing coupled with a Santana trade for pitching, a significant SP signing...perhaps all of those moves. They didn't spend that much prospect capital to stop now, that's for sure.

The Yelich trade sure seems like an "all-in" move to me.

The perception around Santana is that he is a "sell high" candidate (same with Shaw, who the Braves could also be interested in). He isn't as "sell high" as Avi Garcia, but there is a significant chance we just witnessed his career year. A reasonable estimate for Santana over the next 4 years of team control is probably 8 fWAR while being paid something around $30M (HRs are rewarded handsomely in arbitration). That represents roughly $50M in surplus value. If we peg Teheran with $30M+ in surplus value, then I agree, the Braves would have to add a prospect. Assuming that prospect is a pitcher, we are looking at adding a FV 50/55 guy...someone like Allard or Wentz.

While I pegged Chacin as my #1 SP value of this offseason and think it was a good deal for the Brewers, I don't agree that assessment is fair. Teheran is durable, having thrown 185+ innings in 5 consecutive years. His only injury concerns were a knee injury in 2015 that he was able to pitch through. Chacin is not durable, having already missed significant time in multiple seasons. Teheran's contract has 2 years and $23M on it, but the 2nd year is an option, which limits the downside risk substantially. Chacin will be paid $15.5M over the next 2 years no matter what. An argument can certainly (and probably correctly) be made that Teheran may not be worth Santana straight up, but he is definitely worth significantly more than Chacin.

Longtime Braves fan here, just came over to read about your guys' thoughts on the "big move" the Brewers were about to make. I've figured all offseason that the Braves and Brewers match up pretty well in a pitcher for young OFer trade, so I would also like to get your opinions on your main guys that might be available. My gut tells me Santana is the most logical fit, but I'm no expert on the Brewers system. I graded the movement and velocity components of all pitches for all Braves pitchers with available MLB Statcast data here: http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7559&highlight=grading A quick synopsis of each young-ish SP who might be interesting to trade partners... Teheran: 40 FA, 55 SI, 40 CU, 45 SL, 50 CH An above average SI, average CH and a usable SL makes Teheran a #4 if he has average or worse command. If he gets back to plus command as he has shown in previous years, he can bounce back to being a #3. I think Teheran is a good buy-low candidate for a team looking to bolster the middle of their rotation without breaking the bank. Folty: 65 FA, 60 SI, 40 CU, 45/50 SL, 50 CH Folty has good stuff, but not as good as I used to think. Two plus fastballs, a usable SL and an average CH should make him a #3 if he has average or worse command. He might never "figure it out" and will be what I call a "stuff #4". I don't think the Braves will trade him this offseason with 4 years of control remaining, as they are still dreaming on his potential. Newcomb: 65/70 FA, 60 CU, 70 SL, 50 CH Newk has TOR stuff. Period. If he continues to post a BB/9 of 5+ he is the most frustrating "stuff #4" in the game. If he improves to Gio-level control (~3.5 BB/9) he is a TOR stud. My money is on him never getting the BBs under control due to the fact that pitchers his age rarely do, unfortunately. His most likely comparable, in my opinion, is Oliver Perez or Jonathan Sanchez, but some team may think they can fix his control. Fried: 40 FA, 60 CU, 55 CH Fried's FA verges on unusable due to a very low spin rate that results in a horribly flat pitch. I would like to see him switch to a SI instead, which I think could be an above average pitch. As is, he is a junk-baller #5 or swing-man if his control stays below average. If he picks up a grade 55 SI and refines his command to average, he can be a legit #3. His most likely comp, in my opinion, is someone like Mike Montgomery or Justin Nicolino. Sims: 40 FA, 50 SI, 45/50 CU, 40 SL, 60 CH Sims needs to ditch the FA and stick with the SI. An average SI along with a plus CH and a usable CU could make Sims a #4 if he has below average command. If he improves his command he could be better. He is a solid buy low candidate for a team who thinks they can improve his sequencing and is looking to round out the back end of their rotation on the cheap. Gohara: 75 FA, 50 SL, 45 CH Gohara is a beast with a closer's FA. The SL grade is misleading due to the fact it is the average of 2 different pitches. The CH is usable. Gohara is already a 2-pitch #3 SP, and as he refines his command and CH he will grow into a TOR stud. I can't imagine the Braves trading him in any trade for any player that is realistically available. As for the prospects, they break down roughly as: Wright FV 60 - Profiles as a 3+ fWAR #2/#3. I have to imagine he and Gohara are the untouchable pitchers. Soroka FV 55 - Profiles as a 2-3 fWAR innings eater #3/#4 with average stuff and plus command that could lead to being a borderline #2. Comparable to Derek Lowe. Allard FV 55 - Profiles as an undersized pitch-ability #3/#4. There are questions about his stuff and he already has had 2 back surgeries. This is the guy I would like to see the Braves trade. Anderson FV 55 - Longenhagen said it best, "This is your stereotypical high-end prep pitching prospect and a potential No. 2 or 3 starter." Wentz FV 50 - Profiles as a durable #4 The Braves are punting 2018, and have already wasted the bulk of Teheran's surplus value by holding him through the rebuild, so I keep thinking something centered around Teheran for Santana makes sense.