JoeCoolMan24
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Everything posted by JoeCoolMan24
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No. READ the original post again. I'm asking about a specific offer, whether or not you guys would accept that deal or not. Not "Hey, what do you think of James Shields?". All money covered, Lemons as the return.
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I'm specifically talking about Shields + 100% salary for Lemons. Would Brewers fans find that fair value?
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SP James Shields + $6-7M (Whatever is left on his deal this season) for Brewers 16th prospect RHP Caden Lemons. Shields has a higher fWAR than any current Brewers starter. 6 of last 7 starts are quality. 8 straight starts of 6 IP+, all of last 4 starts were 7 IP+. Team leader and great clubhouse guy, has been credited by many young Sox prospects for helping them with pitches and grips and mentoring. Thoughts?
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Oh man, I wanted the Sox to draft Ray SOO badly. Now after his less than stellar start to his pro career, I am actually glad they got Zack Collins instead.
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Remind me again when Cobb was great? He doesn't have elite velocity, doesn't have elite control, and isn't particularly durable. What Alex Cobb seems to think he's worth is a real head scratcher. Yeah, "great" is never something I would associate with Cobb so far. The dude is 30, you can't expect him to really be more than a peak 3-WAR guy in a new contract. He's a decent #3 arm, but he's also someone who has never even reach 180 IP before, so he's a #3 with risk, IMO. I'd give that guy like 3/$45M.
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But that's not really a fair comparison, is it? Given the amount reportedly requested for Archer, wouldn't it be: Archer and Darvish or Darvish, Lynn, Santana (or whatever Santana brings in a trade with someone else), Phillips, Burnes and Peralta? It doesn't sound quite as good when you look at it that way, does it? Right, that's why I said it's not really that cut and dry, but when you are looking at this from the perspective of improving your 2018 major league roster, you are talking losing....what, 2 bench OFers in Santana and Phillips? Your OF is already set with Braun-Cain-Yelich. Yes, losing a couple pitching prospects can sting, but don't forget you are REPLACING them with 2 ALL-STAR levels MAJOR LEAGUERS. Prospects are highly volatile stock. They are currency in which is valued at their potential, not their current talent. As I've said, I'm not a Brewers fan, so I don't have an emotional attachment to these prospects. You could find a fair return from the White Sox for Archer and I'm sure I would also feel very nervous and stressed about it, but that's why being a GM isn't easy. You have to kill your babies.
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Wait - where did that come from? Darvish or Arrieta? Is there something that I missed? If the Brewers managed that too, then it would certainly make people forget about the steep price for Archer, but is that just wishful thinking on your part or do you have more information...? He just means that acquiring Archer wouldn't prohibit them from still going after Darvish or Arrieta, because Archer doesn't cost much financially. Plus, it obviously makes the team more attractive if you had a frontline starter to it. May also take pressure of a newly acquired FA to live up to the contract if he is not THE guy in the rotation, but is 1A or 1B.
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The idea is that acquiring someone like Archer gets you a front line starter for a back-end starter cost. Within your payroll, you can fit in Archer + Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb Or you can get JUST Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb, and then still have to spend on a cheaper arm like maybe Lance Lynn. Would you rather have Archer and Darvish, or Darvish and Lynn? Obviously it's not that cut and dry, but Archer is able to be added without incurring really much of anything to your payroll, especially in 2018 when he will make only $6.2M. That still leaves room to add another big arm like Darvish or Arrieta, or maybe a 2nd tier like Cobb. Versus signing one of those top 2 guys and not having much left over for anyone or anything else.
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Or think about it this way....put Archer on the open market right now. What would he sign for? 6 years/$175M? $180M? That's $29-$30M AAV right there. But instead, the Brewers commitment is about $140M LESS than that, while also removing his age 34 and 35 seasons, seasons in which are almost always promised to be sunk-costs. You have now limited your commitment length AND dollars. His contract alone is worth a good prospect.
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Sounds about right from a pitcher with 4 years of cheap CHEAP control left. That's honestly a huge factor people probably don't consider. You got a guy making less than $9M AAV over the next 4 years to be a potential all-star all 4 years. That would cost you $25M+ a year on the open market. You are talking $70M or so in surplus value. That $70M can do a lot for a franchise. That could easily be adding Cobb right there.
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Quintana is 4 months younger. They will both be 29 through all of 2018. They are the same age. The last 3 years, which is generally what teams evaluate a player on, Archer had 13 fWAR to Quintana's 13.3 fWAR. Quintana got traded with 3+ years left. Archer may get traded with 4 years left. Archer has $33.7M left. Quintana has $29.8M left. It's hard to get any more comparable than that, unless you want to factor in Q being a LHP and Archer being a RHP.
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You guys know way more about the Brewers prospects than I do, obviously, but I would just strongly consider the Jose Quintana trade for reference of any Archer deal. And in case you need a reference on that trade.... Quintana alone for https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/cubs-acquire-jose-quintana.html OF Eloy Jimenez (#4 prospect) SP Dylan Cease (#61 prospect) 3B Matt Rose (not in org top 30) OF Bryant Flete (not in org top 30) So really it was a future superstar, a possible mid-rotation arm, and 2 fillers. So
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How do the Brewers get a Archer trade done? Honestly, an Archer trade *should* compare very closely to the Jose Quintana deal. Quintana had a tick better of a track record than Archer, but Q had 3 1/3 years left and Archer has 4, and both at very low contracts. That's going to be remarkably similar value. The Quintana deal netted the Sox Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, and 2 low-tier guys. At the time, I believe Eloy was ranked somewhere around #14 and Cease was around #68 I think. Obviously Brinson would have been a pretty similar headliner, but a step below Eloy still. Using that trade as a basis, what does Milwaukee have to offer, post-Yelich trade? Something like Luis Ortiz (#70), Brandon Woodruff (#81), Keston Huira (#82), and a flier like Jean Carmona (#13 org rank)?? This is assuming Hader is untouchable (although so was Eloy), and they wouldn't want to lose ANOTHER top OF prospect in Corey Ray. Or maybe Josh Hader WOULD have to be included, in order to lower the damage on the backend of the trade for MIL, but also give the Rays ONE slam dunk prospect back (like Eloy did, which limited the backend of the deal for the Sox). Maybe Hader, Huira, and 2 fliers might be similar to the Quintana return?
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Interesting how the Cubs and Red Sox are listed at the exact same revenue, down to the penny. Something's amiss there... Tigers/Braves and Orioles/Dbacks are also exactly the same figures. Must be some sort of major guesstimations going on, there's no way those figures are real with that many teams being tied down to the penny.
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Hey man! Keep your hate on the North side of the city! -- A White Sox fan.
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Where is Domingo Going?
JoeCoolMan24 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I actually was trying to think of other options besides ones mentioned already and thought of the Sox. For an upside cost controlled P it could be Rodon back to MKE. Stuff is great if he could just get his control down a bit and stay healthy. I think Santana should have more value than Rodon though so more would have to come back to MKE so I don't know where you go after that since Sox shouldn't be giving up prospects. Maybe also swap Thames for Abreu and then have us kick in a P prospect? Something of that nature. You could then turn around and flip Thames and Santana for more prospects? Well, I certainly wouldn't be willing to move Rodon for Santana straight up. I really don't see Rodon getting an extension from the Sox, so I'm not necessarily against moving him at some point, but his value is very low right. The Sox would be selling low on a hurt Rodon and buying high on Santana. I would rather roll the dice on Rodon just being healthy enough to either be useful, or to net more in a trade. Would be willing to lose a couple of pitching prospects not named Kopech for a move though. -
Where is Domingo Going?
JoeCoolMan24 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I'm a White Sox fan. We don't necessarily need an OF, with Eloy and Robert coming, and Avi Garcia, Engel, Delmonico, and Rutherford all fringe options. But humor me, the stove is cold right now in Chicago.