Eye Black

Thanks for sharing this, and I agree that you’d like to see the contact rate a little higher. Luckily, a low contact rate alone isn’t guaranteed to be a death knell, and there are a few outliers in terms of players that can produce big time value with a lower contact rate. One notable example that comes to mind is Fernando Tatis Jr. who had an even worse 67.2% contact rate during his monster 2021 season which included 42 home runs. One plate discipline stat that’s slightly more favorable to William Contreras is swinging strike rate. If you do the same query of 350 plate appearances from last season, the younger Contreras ranked 40 spots from the bottom in SwStr% at 14.0%. Some notable names he finished better than included Nick Castellanos (17.0%), Salvador Perez (16.9%), Jeremy Peña (15.7%), Luis Robert (15.2%), Nelson Cruz (15.0%), Bryce Harper (14.8%), Byron Buxton (14.6%), Julio Rodriguez (14.4%), Rafael Devers (14.2%). One spot better than Contreras was Dansby Swanson (13.9%) who was in the midst of having a career season offensively. William even finished ahead of brother Wilson (14.4%) in swinging strike rate. Plate discipline is obviously a crucial part of the equation, but as long as he’s barreling the ball and doing damage when he is making contact I think he’ll end up proving to be a valuable offensive threat.

The Baseball America trade reaction podcast is a great listen, and covers a lot of angles of the transaction. It’s overwhelmingly positive in favor of the Brewers. Was also listening to a Braves-centric podcast, Battery Power, and they are very high on Contreras. They maybe summed it up best of all, “the Brewers should feel like this is Christmas morning.”

I agree that Ruiz’s industry evaluations are probably a bit all over the place. I think it’s fair to assume the Brewers were another team that valued him more highly than the median when they acquired him back in July. I do think there are certain teams that place a high value on having a speedy centerfielder with good range. Here is A’s GM David Forst discussing Esteury Ruiz’s future in centerfielder: "I think he has the ability to play there every day in the big leagues between the speed and the range -- I think he has a chance to be really good there." He also confirmed that he expects Ruiz to start the season with the major league club.

Contreras has played just five career games against the Brewers (four of them at AmFamField), and in those 21 plate appearances he has a line of .333 BA / .524 OBP / 1.391 OPS. Meaningless small sample, but still a little awesome as well.

I’m just stunned the Brewers didn’t give up more here. Not another outfielder, not a prospect arm, not a competitive balance pick… just wow.

Except for the Cubs! Instead they’re now surrounded by Contreras brothers.

I am not among the highest on Sal Frelick, but I actually think his skill set pairs very well with a style of play that’s going to be coveted in MLB over the next decade. I am hopeful the recent rules changes increase the value and impact of players like Frelick. If he can get on base and cause havoc from there he will be an asset to the top of the Brewers lineup.

I’ve been intrigued by Abraham Toro for awhile, a switch hitter with a low strikeout rate that put up very impressive wRC+ numbers throughout his minor league career. For whatever reason things haven’t clicked yet in the majors, but he turns 26 years old next month which is often the age MLB hitters take a step forward. Also, it’s worth remembering that switch hitters take longer to adjust and develop at the highest level since they’re dividing plate opportunities across two different swings. Add the fact that he can fill the utility role, and it makes sense why he would be a Brewers target.

All good points here, Stearns indicating Gasser was someone they had targeted in last year’s draft seems pretty telling that they were much higher on him than you’ll see reflected in the industry’s prospect rankings. I hope they’re right, because if they can turn Gasser into a mid-rotation starter the trade will look much better a few years down the road. Ruiz seems like a wild card with still having a fairly wide range of possible outcomes for someone that’s 23 years old. There are aspects of his game to love (speed, recent OBP and contact improvements) and red flags (previous contact issues, reported trouble with velocity, low exit velos, defensive issues at 2B). I am very curious to see how he performs going forward, it could literally either of these cases: 1) the Brewers acquired him at the start of a massive developmental breakout, or 2) the Brewers acquired him at his peak value as he experienced a brief pop-up performance.

The Lamet thing is annoying, and makes the front office appear a little foolish. I get that it was a bit of a salary dump from the Padres end, but at least have a plan for incorporating a player that Counsell literally said this about yesterday: "I think you ask any hitter and anybody that's been on the sidelines watching him pitch when he's been good and it’s the best slider in baseball,"

Looking at Laureano’s home runs this season his swing seems geared towards AmFam Field. He has hit 16 balls that would’ve been over the wall in Milwaukee, but his season total is at just 10 HR (yes I realize half his games would be away).

Looking at Laureano’s home runs this season his swing seems geared towards AmFam Field. He has hit 16 balls that would’ve been over the wall in Milwaukee, but his season total is at just 10 HR (yes I realize half his games would be away).

Laureano is actually still arbitration eligible for three years after this season. The lost service time from his PED suspension resulted in him being under team control for an additional season.

Laureano is actually still arbitration eligible for three years after this season. The lost service time from his PED suspension resulted in him being under team control for an additional season.

Oops, I missed this post before commenting. Looks like you covered it already, seems likely someone among that pool is on the move.