MadScientist

With the focused, determined way the Brewers were playing, for a good while this season I believed the Brewers could get to the World Series. What I never would have believed was that the Brewers would be the team in the World Series with the higher payroll.

They should have done co-MVP's with Ashby and Bauers.

This isn't last year. This is "Next Year"!

I'd prefer two.

2-0 !!!

I'm still mad at the Cardinals for that. Winning it all will finally take a little of the edge off of that.

3 Run Lead! (Is that even allowed?)

Insurance! Now go for home and auto as well.

But he might cause the Dodgers and their fans to need it.

Good choice putting Turang on to get to Wild Bill.

Splashing Yamamoto this quick feels incredible after last year.

Captain my Captain!

My only guess is the PECOTA sees Tampa getting to the series much more frequently in their simulations than Milwaukee. The AL is just weaker this year than the NL. They also seem to weight teams with the bye much more heavily than others, so that pushes their ALCS simulation to have TB vs CLE, and Tampa is going to win most of those.

To be fair, they admit that their models don't work very well for a team like the Brewers. This is what the author said about the Brewers' projection of 85 wins: Also, their individual team projections tend to be a lot closer to 500 than what usually happens. For instance, they had Boston on top of the AL East with 90 wins, but they also said there was just a 10% chance that the AL East winner would have only 90 wins. They also predicted the Rays would be last with 74 wins. ZiPS mostly proves that computers can guess just as bad as people.

Except that there's also the 'y-' which the key says: y – clinched division So according to BR, the Brewers both have an have not clinched the division. A Schrodinger's division championship situation. But in reality, Cubs will not win the division no matter what.