MadScientist

My only guess is the PECOTA sees Tampa getting to the series much more frequently in their simulations than Milwaukee. The AL is just weaker this year than the NL. They also seem to weight teams with the bye much more heavily than others, so that pushes their ALCS simulation to have TB vs CLE, and Tampa is going to win most of those.

To be fair, they admit that their models don't work very well for a team like the Brewers. This is what the author said about the Brewers' projection of 85 wins: Also, their individual team projections tend to be a lot closer to 500 than what usually happens. For instance, they had Boston on top of the AL East with 90 wins, but they also said there was just a 10% chance that the AL East winner would have only 90 wins. They also predicted the Rays would be last with 74 wins. ZiPS mostly proves that computers can guess just as bad as people.

Except that there's also the 'y-' which the key says: y – clinched division So according to BR, the Brewers both have an have not clinched the division. A Schrodinger's division championship situation. But in reality, Cubs will not win the division no matter what.

After 19 pitches from Ashby there were 2 on and 0 outs. After 21 pitches it was game over.

Luis Lara - the human highlight.

Well, they got the 6 before the second out. You might have underestimated them today. At this rate, they will save the pen, but maybe not the position player who takes the mound in the 8th.

It's disappointing that those sites are ignoring it. It is being covered by the NY Times, LA Times, and Forbes.

The TLDR - Dodgers massive local TV contract is funded by insurance companies run by the Dodgers owners, and they also put a massive debt on the books of that media company to avoid revenue sharing. Now what will MLB do about this?

Yeah, but now we are underperformming the Pythagoras win loss, unless Sanchez gives up after bunch.

Who had money on Yeli and Hamilton going deep tonight? And if anyone did, what are tomorrow's lottery numbers.

Probably depends on what happens with the CBA. Also depends on how the Brewers see Priester, Gasser and Sproat, but every year shows you can never have too many good starters.

This is what I'm thinking. They aren't focused just on winning a game or riding a winning streak, they want that ring and know they have a team that can do it. Listening to Murphy, there is a higher level of expectations and accountability on this team. Maybe this team isn't acting as goofy at times as last year, but they are focused, hungry and winning. That's not a bad thing.

I'd be hard pressed to say that the difference between Skubal and Henderson this season is worth the remaining 4-5 seasons of control of Henderson alone. Trading him plus top prospects would have been a big loss, unless there was an accurate crystal ball saying that the move guarantees the Brewers win it all this year.

That hit from Ortiz made me wonder if they put astroturf in Dodgers stadium.

No clutch hitting, but at least some clutch walking.