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RedbirdRay

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Everything posted by RedbirdRay

  1. RedbirdRay
    I think ZiPS usually has a pretty decent track record. I thought, in general, it usually went... ZiPS PECOTA PrOPS Bill James in order of accuracy, but not sure. All have a pretty good track record in general. There are, of course, anomalies in any system...but it's based on history and age progression.
  2. RedbirdRay
    I've been working on compiling the Brewer Bill James 2007 Projections for you guys but always mess up the tables. Will probably be finished with it by tomorrow. Does someone want to volunteer to post it for me pretty like if I message them to you?
  3. RedbirdRay
    A lot of StL fans think TLR gave his good buddy Leyland quite a break by not having Rogers formally inspected on the mound. I am really baffled about it. TLR has never been shy about accusing ppl of cheating and having bats/gloves/hats etc inspected. Seems he rolled over for his buddy. It would have been huge to have the bullpen in the game from the second inning on for Detroit and have KR lost for his future start.
  4. RedbirdRay
    Pretty cool minor league matchup going on now... Nashville @ Memphis (Villanueva vs. Anthony Reyes) Pretty cool AAA pitchers duel.
  5. RedbirdRay
    Both pitchers strike out the side in the first. Pretty cool.
  6. RedbirdRay
    Hope it's nothing serious. I love Sheeter.
  7. RedbirdRay
    Is there some trick to using the search function? I type in names of threads I created using the exact name of the thread and it still will give me a "nothing found" message. Does it work at all?
  8. RedbirdRay
    Some interesting discussions going on lately about proper construction of a batting order. Constructing Lineups from the Hardball Times. Cyril Morong's regression analysis This cool tool found linked on the THT article from Dave Pinto's blog will construct lineups for you if you just enter the OBP and SLG of prospective batters. It came up with a Brewer lineup (general without splits for R/L) of Clark Jenkins Weeks Lee Fielder Hall Hardy Sheets Miller. I bet batting a pitcher 8th who doesn't bat like Dontrelle Willis would stir a lot of controversy.
  9. RedbirdRay
    Interesting articles on stolen bases: Base Stealer Intangibles Part 1 Base Stealer Intangibles Part 2
  10. RedbirdRay
    I find undertow's post interesting, and have wondered about doing the same. I think an exhibit focused on the dark side of our game would be a good addition to the Hall. Hardly anyone can remember the batting champion from 1919. Almost everyone (who's a baseball fan) can tell you what the White Sox did, though. Some things that weren't nice in baseball very much shaped our history. I don't think we should ignore them. I don't think we should honor them, either. Maybe a display chronicling those banned from the game? or cheating? Years later, we are still debating Pete Rose. His actions were legendary and controversial. I cannot think of a larger life when measured by era in baseball. Pete's place in history should be formally remembered. Pete, however, should never have a plaque nor oppurtunity to speak at Cooperstown. I forgot to mention in my last post, I voted NO.
  11. RedbirdRay
    Doesn't betting on games when you are a player/manager count as on-the-field action? It might have dictated whether someone else did though. Maybe he left a bad pitching matchup in...maybe he PH with someone he knew would get out...maybe he got out on purpose when he was a player/manager...a manager is 'in the game' IMO. Pete's negative actions were on the field.
  12. RedbirdRay
    I hate him. I would love to vote "no". But, would have to vote yes due to the issues stated above. No proof. He's a blackeye on the game of baseball and I can't stand him, but he's a HOF'er...at least right now.
  13. RedbirdRay
    In regards to replacing Carlos. I don't see the "no real replacement" options arguement. A lot can be done through trade. And, a lot can be done with $8.5 million dollars. It doesn't necessarily have to be just one player replacing Carlos, nor does it necessarily mean your cleanup hitter be a left fielder. You just have to replace what he meant to the lineup/team in terms of helping the team win. If Carlos' contributions are spread over an upgrade at third base, an average left fielder priced accordingly, and an upgrade to the pitching staff...why wouldn't that be sufficient? You have outfielders in the farm system ready for the call. You have an extra first baseman also primed for trade. The look of the team could be a lot different with some aggressive moves. Why does all the offense have to come from left field?
  14. RedbirdRay
    His career line is .284/.337/.488. Baseball-Reference.com lists those careers most similar by age as: Leon Durham, Jermaine Dye and George Bell.
  15. RedbirdRay
    Thanks, haven't posted a lot here yet...but, I am impressed by the site and also impressed with the percieved number of knowledgable baseball fans on this site. I love the discussions. I agree, when you measure over a 3 year span...it's not close. However, when you measure on last year alone, it's much closer. Also consider the salary gap has a much wider margin than the gaps in the 3 year picture. Lee last year: .265/.324/.487 with 85 runs, 32 HRs, and 114 rbis. 13/17 stolen bases, an EQA of .275. He also had a -9 FRAA, which translates to fielding in the Pete Incaviglia range (awful). Delucci last year: .251/.367/.513 with 97 runs, 29 homers, and 65 rbis (often hit leadoff), an EQA of .288 and a FRAA of 3. He was 5/8 stealing (should have a red light). Mench last year: .264/.328/.469 with 71/25/73 an EQA of .263. FRAA = 3 and he was 4/7 stealing. If those Rangers hit cleanup in your lineup, they would probably have similar runs and rbi stats to Carlos. Those are a measure of the lineup around a player, not the player. The point I was trying to make was more about the bang you can get for your buck, than a straight up comparision of Carlos to what's available by trade. For example, what if you traded Carlos and his $8,500,000 option straight up for $500,000 David Delucci and used the $8,000,000 left over to make a push for Brian Giles? He should draw $10 per year and is worth it.
  16. RedbirdRay
    Here are a couple links in regards to the rankings of LF's. First of all, BaseballProspectus is a pay site, but some of the stats are free. This link will get you VORP for players. If you pay for the site, you can sort by "left fielders", but I'll give the link to the free overall list. It's all offensive players, so one will just have to sort out the outfielders. www.baseballprospectus.co....php?cid=1 Here's a link for the same thing only EqA... www.baseballprospectus.co...?cid=31187 The Hardball Times is a free site that lists Win Shares. I prefer the version of win shares they use. The downfall of this link is it only sorts by outfielders. I just factored out the LF's by hand when I considered the topic. Here's that link. www.hardballtimes.com/main In regards to no upgrade to Carlos for a trade, I'm not so sure of that. Trades are not just about face value, but also the money. For example, the trade that brought Carlos to Milwaukee was very much advantage Milwaukee until you consider the money. Was the 12 points of VORP Carlos had over Podsednik and the RP worth the $6.25 million difference in salaray? I think you could find just as/almost as good of an outfielder as Lee in trade for much less money. Consider teams like the DevilRays and the Rangers have a stockpile of outfielders. They don't need another outfielder, but you could trade Carlos for pitching and then trade some pitching for an outfielder. Guys like Kevin Mench, David Dellucci, etc. make a lot less money for basically the same amount of offense.
  17. RedbirdRay
    Among National League LFs, Carlos finished... 9th in VORP 17th in EqA 7th in Win Shares (THT's version). I would consider that slightly above average considering many of the guys lower didn't hold the position for the whole season. He's paid much better than he factors. However, I think Carlos served more of a purpose to the team than his value as a player. At the start of '04, not many people knew about the readiness of the youth down on the farm. At face value, the Brewers had few names to draw fans to the park. Attempts to court big-name free agents didn't draw interest. A trade for a name that would help put fans into seats was a good move. Now people know about what kind of team is around the corner. Trade him.
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