colbyjack

Not a whole lot of baseball observations from this week. The poor weather in the area prevented me from traveling to Platteville yesterday (and today) to check out UW Stevens Point RHP Jordan Zimmerman. I missed him last summer as well, as I think I wasn't meant to see the guy pitch. Anyway, a few thoughts from the college games this weekend: Sean Doolittle He's pressing right now. Still taking a ton of pitches, and still not swinging and missing, which is good, but he's hitting off of his front foot, which is taking away from his sweet natural swing. I've noted before that he'll probably never hit for much power, and while everything he is going through right now is correctable, he needs to shore up his mechanics and find his stroke over the next two months otherwise he could slip out of the first round altogether. He did hit a couple of RBI singles in Saturday's game, but again, he was swatting at the ball, not driving it, which is fine, but long-term he wouldn't be successful with that approach. He's a good enough hitter to find himself. David Adams Didn't show me much Saturday, but I saw enough from his bat the weekend (or two) before to support what I've seen of him while he was in high school. Beau Seabury Virginia's catcher, I believe a senior. Not a great bad, as he'll struggle to hit .250 as a professional, but he is fun to watch behind the plate. Very active, and he likes to show off his arm. I love watching catchers that are not only very good defensively, but the ones that know and take great pride in their defensive skills. Roger Kieschnick As far as I know there is no relation to former Brewers Toolbox Brooks Kieshnick. Roger is a big left-handed hitting power hitter (like Brooks) that is a better overall athlete and has a really fine arm in right field. This was actually the first time I had seen him play. He was overmatched in his first two ABs in which he really had a hard time identifying and catching up with offspeed pitches. He did finish with two hits, and laced a double to the RCF gap, and while I always warn about making impressions after one game, he needs to work to make sure he doesn't look so foolish against offspeed pitches to be a more refined overall hitter. He's sophomore and isn't draft-eligible until 2008. Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina Vanderbilt played South Carolina Saturday afternoon, and did a nice job beating them up, with the game finishing 12-1. That means the Commodores took the first two games of the series from the #1 ranked Gamecocks, as Vandy may find themselves ranked #1 come Monday morning. Pedro Alvarez This was my first chance to see sophomore sensation Pedro Alvarez this year. He's as good as advertised: Nice approach, great swing, great bat speed, quick hands, and he impressed me with his defense as well. He's going to be an impact hitter in the big leagues, although when watching the game I asked myself who I liked better, Alvarez or Alex Gordon at the same stage of their careers, and I still think I would take Gordon (which isn't an insult, as Gordon is a special player, I'm just throwing it out there). We have another year to follow Alvarez. Mike Minor We have two more years to follow freshman Mike Minor, who has served as Vanderbilt's mid-week starter up until this weekend. Man did he look great, and follows in a long line of impressive Vanderbilt LHPs (Jeremy Sowers, Ryan Mullins and of course, David Price). His game begins with the command of his fastball, which he slings out of his hand effortlessly. He's the type of guy you hear "it looks like he's playing catch out there." He also has a great slider that he can bend over for strikes or bury in the dirt for Ks. Then he pulled out his changeup that absolutely froze right-handed hitters on the outside corner. He's a very, very impressive young man, and should be one of the top 3-5 picks for the 2009 draft. Not much else to mention. I covered Smoak in greater depth last weekend, as he didn't have a particularly strong showing in this game against Minor. He was batting right-handed most of the time and looked a little foolish on a few swings. While he's a left-handed throwing, switch-hitting first baseman, I'm beginning to think that he's a much better left-handed hitter, despite the fact that I saw him crush a two-run HR last weekend as a right-handed hitter. Lance Berkman and Chipper Jones have also been known to surprise people with their right-handed hitting power from time to time despite being largely known as much stronger hitters from the left side. Vanderbilt OF (DHing in this game) Jonathan White is a good looking overall athlete. I wished I could have seen him play in the field, so I'm looking forward to watching him when I travel to Nashville later this month to catch the Vandy-Tennessee series (which will be loaded with prospects).

...but we really need a good, deep draft this year to replenish our system because after Inman, Braun, and Gallardo, we dont have much in terms of cant miss prospects. Well, three can't miss prospects is pretty dang good. I've mentioned before in the minor league forum that you'll be hard-pressed to find any organization that has three prospects as good or better than the Brewers top trio. And I think there is a very good next tier of talent just after Gallardo, Braun and Inman, which includes Cain, Gamel, Gillespie, Escobar, Hammond, Salome, Fermaint, etc. I agree that the team needs to have a strong drafting effort, although I think that is always important. One bad draft for a team like the Brewers can have a negative lasting impact, and fortunately so far the Brewers have found a starter each year Jack Z. has been the SD (Hart, Hardy, Fielder, Weeks from 2000-2003). What's interesting about that comment is that Hart was the first player selected of that group, but is the last to grab a starting job, which shows how long is often takes for players to make it to and stick at the big-league level (meaning, a scouting director needs a lot longer to accurately gauge how good of a job he's doing).

Nope, no studies done, none that I can remember. The tall pitchers thing is more my thing, and 6'5" is more my cut-off without any rhyme or reason.

Yeah, Brown vs. LaPorta doesn't work. Two different players. And I openly admit that I have aggressively placed Brown where I did. No one else has had Brown as a top-30 prospect, but when you combine his athleticism with his production so far, it's hard for me not to like the guy. And I'm not convinced LaPorta is going to hit for a high average at the pro level, which truly makes him one dimensional. Just so you know, last year he started at something like #4 overall on my top-30, so he has to work a little extra hard to make it up to me http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . colby, what do you think of pat burrell as a comparison for laporta? Actually I've used the exact same comparison several times for a few years now.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has their conference previews out for the local (SE Wisconsin) spring high school baseball season: www.jsonline.com/story/in...?id=584688 And there's a nice feature on Kenosha St. Joe's standout Adrian Turner: www.jsonline.com/story/in...?id=584689 http://graphics.jsonline.com/graphics/sports/gen/img/mar07/sturner0330.jpg

Thanks a lot for the report on Watson vs. Newmann fewgoodcards. I saw that game was available to watch through CSTV, but I was unable to take the time to see it. I need to see if they archive those games at all. As for Watson's lack of a breaking ball, if it helps win you over at all, the Brewers the past few years have had a one guy in particular succeed with a fastball/changeup arsenal: Chris Capuano. It always seems harder to find a lefty throw a good breaking ball, which is why a lefty that throws a good changeup always appeals to me.

They also did one on Nick Noonan, who I am high on, but it disturbed me a little. They have him as a good top of the order hitter with 10-15 HR power max and just average/slightly above average speed. Everything else I have read on him, here and elsewhere, your comp to Chase Utley seemed accurate. Is this just a difference of opinion from different scouts, or is Mayo way off? Keep in mind that Utley was profiled as a 2B that maxed out in the 10-15 HR power range as well at one point in time. Noonan is just a very good, natural hitter, and as a left-handed hitter that profiles to play 2B everyday Utley is a natural comparison. Don't take my comparisons too far, as you'll have unrealistic expectations. They should be used more as a guide for reference. By top of the order hitter are they talking about a leadoff guy? I'm not so sure about that, he's probably best somewhere in the 2-6 range at his best. if you are going to take a guy like that, wouldn't you rather get the guy who is 3 years younger that you can take the time you need to iron things out? In theory, yes, but not always. Brackman still has thrown harder more consistently, has pitched against some of the top hitters across the nation in the Cape Cod League and has gotten through some key years for pitchers where we often see serious arm injuries. That doesn't mean he's less likely to suffer injury, but they are pluses in his favor. As Gagne mentions, Brackman also has the Boras factor, which always looms large. Aumont isnt as tall, since Brackman is 6'10 and Aumont is 6'7, but even 6'7 guys have problems repeating their deliveries, which is a knock on Aumont. Anything over 6'5" I have a problem with, so the difference between 6'10" or 6'7" really doesn't matter to me. Aumont is still super-tall.

colby, i know you just updated your top 30 and he wasn't in it, but i see no way he is not a first round pick come june. Don't be so sure. He has shored up his strike zone a little, but he still has holes in his swing, particularly the outside half of the plate, and can struggle to recognize breaking balls. He's doing a nice job this year, but really he should after such a bad season a year ago which followed a really good sophomore season. He's just outside my top 30 (I don't really rank past 30), which means he is a legitimate first-rounder, but don't forget that he is to be advised by Scott Boras. It was harder keeping Kyle Russell out of the top 30. If he keeps it up he'll be there next time. But how impressive has Casey Weathers been this spring? 32 strikeouts and 7 walks in 20.2 IP. Looks like he's a solid first rounder. Weathers snuck into my top 30 in my latest ranking, as he's been throwing as hard as 99 with his FB and the upper 80s with his vastly improved slider. I think he could be the first true closer off the board, and could easily sneak into the top 10. Results, weekend of 3/30/07: David Price 7.2 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 10 K, 2 BB, 120 pitches vs. South Carolina Another long outing for Price, although against the #1 team in the country. Nick Schmidt 9 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 9 K, 2 BB, 116 pitches vs. Tennessee Schmidt with a strong outing dueling fellow tall LHP James Adkins. James Adkins 7.1 IP, 5 H, 6 R (1 ER), 7 K, 2 BB, 109 pitches vs. Arkansas Adkins a tough luck loser, giving up only one earned run out of six. Wes Roemer 9 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 9 K, 1 BB, 130 pitches vs. CS Northridge A nice outing, but again at the expense of a lofty pitch count. James Simmons 9 IP, 3 H, 1 R (0 ER), 5 K, 0 BB, 101 pitches vs. UC Davis 101 pitches in a CG effort, that's nice to see. Simmons has a 54 to 7 K to BB ratio in 56.2 innings with a .179 BAA. Jake Arrieta 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R (4 ER), 1 K, 4 BB vs. UC Santa Barbara Another shaky outing for Arrieta, who may be pitching himself out of the first round altogether. Ross Detwiler 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 4 BB vs. Illinois State Detwiler gets hit around for a change, and he really needs to find a way to bring those BBs down. Andrew Brackman 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 3 BB, 111 pitches vs. Boston College A great start for Brackman, who had a string of 3-4 bad outings. Hopefully this gets him back on track. Joe Savery 7 IP, 5 H, 3 R (0 ER), 7 K, 0 BB vs. Marshall Savery's 2nd really good start in three weeks, although against a very weak Marshall team. Sean Doolittle 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R (0 ER), 0 K, 3 BB vs. VA Tech Doolittle pitched well enough to win, but he hasn't been very sharp since ACC play began, on the mound or at the plate. David Newmann 5.1 IP, 4 H, 6 R (4 ER), 5 K, 3 BB vs. Nebraska Newmann continues to rack up both the Ks and the BBs. Tony Watson 7 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 8 K, 0 BB (2 HR) vs. TX A&M The first time Watson is profiled here, a nice effort in a tough Friday matchup vs. Newmann. A nice picture of Nebraska's LHP Tony Watson, whose specialty is a changeup much like UCLA's David Huff from a year ago: http://www.nmnathletics.com.edgesuite.net/pics29/520/CY/CYSLGVFBYHYAPGV.20070323231343.JPG

I'm really surprised by Bernal. I was tempted to pick him as a super-sleeper. His leg must have been slow to recover, or worse than originally thought. I'm also mildly surprised by Rowe being let go. Not so much because I felt he was a prospect, but because the system is so thin at 1B. I wonder if Errecart's permanent move to 1B at BC had anything to do with this (assuming one or both of Grant Richardson and John Alonso will be taking the 1B job at WV). EDIT: Scratch that, Richardson added to the list too.

Aumont is impressing an awful lot of people recently. In a recent outing in Florida, which was reported by both PG Crosschecker and BA, scouts were buzzing like crazy after seeing him pitch for the first time this year. He was throwing in the mid-90s and reportedly hit 96 or 97, depending on who you ask. The breaking ball was there as well, as was the late movement in the zone. He's the high school version of Andrew Brackman, a big, strong kid with a frame and arsenal that makes scouts drool but he needs a lot of work with his mechanics and learning how to pitch. His arm works really well, as I know a lot of the PG scouts have been impressed by how loose he throws. It sounds as though he has become a lock to be taken in the first round, as you can also find him in my top-30 prospects as well. Personally, I'm leery of super-tall pitchers, and I'm also leery of pitchers that are more throwers than pitchers, but I haven't seen him pitch so I can't say for absolute certain.

And on Jack...He has been at this for 7 years now. When Schuerholz took over, it only took him about 3 years, along with Cox to build that franchise into a powerhouse, and as the previous poster mentions, Id look for KC to have the same results in a very short period of time. At some point the SD's performance has to be reflected on the Major League roster/standings...and so far...Jack Z hasnt measured up. A few things, you're comparing a scouting director to a general manager (Schuerholz, who was hired in October of 1990 by the way) and a general manager/manager (Bobby Cox, who took over as the Braves GM in October of 1985). If you're trying to compare anyone to the legendary Paul Snyder, the Braves scouting director for two decades, you should then note that it took Snyder (who took over his post in 1981) 10 years to provide his organization with enough talent to put them over the top. Plus, Cox and Schuerholz inherited quite a bit of talent. When they took over the GM posts in 1985 and 1990 respectively, neither one was around to be responsible for the procurement of holdovers such as Ron Gant (4th round, 1983), David Justice (4th round, 1985), Jeff Blauser (1st round, 1984) and Tom Glavine (2nd round, 1984), four of the Braves most notable homegrown talents from the 1991 team. The only other big-name in-house talent that significantly helped propel the Braves starting in 1991 was Steve Avery, who was the 4th overall pick IIRC in 1988. In other words, it takes more than just a few years to build up talent. Although that was obvious before bringing these points up. Sorry, this was just another bad comparison that really holds no value in trying to bring Jack Z. down.

The top 30 and the notes that correspond with my rankings have been updated as of this morning. David Price has officially taken over as my new #1 (I was reluctant to bump my fave prospect, Matt Wieters, but it was time). Enjoy: www.brewerfan.net/ViewDra...?draftId=5

Gamel & Inman.

Once again, other teams, in the same period of time that Jack Z has been at the helm have drafted and developed and turned into legitimate ML stars their pitchers, Jack does not. I mean this is a fan site, but c'mon.... Chris has already touched on this, but you're not comparing Jack Z. to other teams and scouting directors since Jack Z. has taken over. You started the thread by saying the study goes back 12 years. Jack Z. has only been around since 2000. Until you use a consistent study group, your comments towards this really are baseless. And you know what, even since 2000 I'm still guessing his numbers wouldn't be particularly great, since there are going to be a lot of players from 2000 until the first player Jack Z. draft made it to the big leagues. Again, this is not the type of thing you can determine at this point in time. 12 years from now, absolutely. I think Jack Z. has his faults (like developing pitching so far), but you're still reaching to find more of them, and I don't know why you are intentionally ignoring the fact that 50% of the everyday starting lineup is his responsibility, and bump that figure up to 63% when Braun becomes a regular. If you think that is commonplace, find another team that has 4-5 everyday players that can be attributed to one scouting director (other than the Twins, as Radcliffe has been there forever and he's the best in the biz).

Actually, that's not what I meant by when I said "I tried." I meant that I tried to explain a few scenarios in which that has happened, despite a couple of people insisting that it hasn't. Instead of expanding, I'm going to pull myself out of the conversation as I'm a little too close to the subject matter and I'm probably not doing my place of employment, or the patrons, much of a service by speaking about it on this forum.

Oh well, I tried.

I'm totally missing something here. Summerfest has had free wristbands available day of show for general admission lawn seating for shows in which they've sold general admission lawn tickets in advance? Is it that hard to believe? When shows go on sale, and people are really bent to see a certain band, but don't have the cash necessary to sit in the red of yellow sections, they often will buy tickets for the bleachers or grass. That's the risk they take if that show later offers free wristbands, and that is a frequent complaint that comes in. However, if someone bought a lawn ticket for someone like The Fray, and finds out later that it is a wristbanded show, they really have no one to blame but themselves for not properly gauging how big the show would be. I remember my dental hygenist told me a few years ago that her and her boyfirend bought something like eight tickets to the Sugar Ray show at Potawatomi a year or two ago figuring that it would be a huge show and even if they couldn't find six of their friends to go along they could sell their tickets on ebay. I remember asking her about this the next time I had an app't. and they lost a lot of money not realizing that you can't charge $50+ for a Sugar Ray ticket and expect a big crowd. "Who doesn't like Sugar Ray???" She was really nice, and she was working on my teeth with my mouth propped open, but it was hard not to laugh. Colby - Any chance Ryan Adams will be making an appearance at Summerfest...ever? Sorry RyDogg, I don't have anything to do with who plays at Summerfest.

Each time Baseball America brings up Ryan Braun and includes a scouting report with comments from an anonymous scout, the report sounds almost exactly the same. And not just by the description, as it's nearly verbatim, as if the exact same person is telling BA the exact same thing the next time they ask him about it. That is just a hunch on my end. As I noted when I first brought that up, the scouting report may be the same because scouts are seeing the same thing, but I don't get that impression given the way it is presented by BA. EDIT: And then as pogo pointed out, other "experts" get these reports and run with it. Do the folks at BP, Fox Sports, The Hardball Times, The Baseball Analysts, Project Prospects, etc., get to see these prospects? Usually not. In fact, the people at BA rarely do either, as they're relying on reports given to them from people that have. So these reports often get regurgitated to the point that it seems as though hundreds of people have seen Braun and they all feel the exact same way. Which is why when I have had the chance to see someone play and I don't see the same things that are being reported I tend to be a lot more skeptical of those other reports, especially when someone like pogo sees the same thing I do.

Sorry, but you're really reaching for reasons to criticize Jack Z. TC already commented about how you can't use the "Total Player Seasons Produced" category against the guy, at least not right now (maybe in a good 10 years). Use that against the Sal Bando regime as much as you want. As for Cameron Maybin being listed as a probable minor league player of the year candidate with Braun and Gallardo not being mentioned, first of all, does that really matter? Second of all, Braun and Gallardo probably aren't candidates because BA, like most everyone else, expects both of them to contribute at the big-league level quite a bit this season. If Braun is up with the team by June and Gallardo follows suit at some point this year, neither one of them is going to have the counting numbers to compete with the other players likely to be in contention for this honor.

I understand your point, but they have had wristbands available for shows in which they sold lawn and bleachers seats at. Why wouldn't they make those seats available for sale at this point in time? Like I said before, if Summerfest were to announce "hey, you can get in free with a wristband for this show," why would anyone feel compelled to buy tickets for some of these shows? And please trust me. I'm not guessing here.

None of the Amphitheater shows that are currently on sale will have free lawn or bleacher admission. How do you know this? Summerfest doesn't even know at this point in time which shows will offer free lawn and bleacher seats. That isn't determined when the tickets go on sale. If it were, how do you expect the on-sales would go if people knew free seats would be available later? Like last year, I'm guessing only 3-4 of the shows will NOT have wristbands available. Some of the shows they just open up the gates and let the masses come in as they please (for the BoDeans of the world).

Toby Keith is nowhere near sold out. Plenty of Bleacher and Lawn seats remain. Which makes it virtually sold out. If it is a wristbanded show, which it probably will be, SF has already made their money on the red & yellow seats and they make the general public happy by allowing for "free" seats elsewhere while those patrons make the event more money by drinking beer and eating Martino's hot dogs. The Marcus Amp selling out is a lot different than Miller Park selling out brewcrewreview http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . And while I'm at it, Pollstar is evil. I'm not sure if people are aware of this or not, but the last day of Summerfest, Sunday July 8th, the gates will be open free to the public from noon to 4pm. No promotions, no strings attached. There's also talk of a relatively "easy" free promotion on July 4th.

...for example I love Sowers but who would you want long term him or Homer Bailey? Sowers http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . Seriously, Sowers is already proven at the big-league level. Bailey is not. I may answer the question differently a few years down the road, but right now gimme the proven commodity. Thanks for joining in indiansfan99, always nice to have different perspectives. Your point is a good one in that no philosophy is the right one. It isn't about what you take (college vs. HS) but who you take. Adam Miller is another good reason why you shouldn't ignore prep pitchers early in the draft.

Ackley did look good, as a I made point to check out his ABs (I DVR'd the game) given how hot he has been this spring. Good swing, and he's among the leaders nationally in hits. He's not the biggest of guys, and his swing doesn't elicit much power potential, not to take away from his amazing collegiate start. Kennedy is a fair enough comp for Horton as well.

Onto this weekend. As I mentioned above, there are a few interesting games on TV to follow. Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina in particular is a great matchup regardless of the prospects involved. Virginia vs. Virginia Tech Saturday, Noon, FCSA Another chance to watch Doolittle & Adams. I believe Thompson has been moved to the Friday's starter while Doolittle has assumed the Sunday role, but you never know. Texas Tech vs. Kansas State Saturday, 2 pm, FCSP Sorry, I don't have much to offer for this one. Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina Saturday, 3 pm, FCSA I saw Justin Smoak last weekend, now I get to see him square off against fellow slugger Pedro Alvarez. This game is loaded with reasons to watch. Here's Baseball America's College weekend preview: www.baseballamerica.com/t...63617.html