colbyjack

I like the fact that Porcello's fastball not only touches 98, seemingly without an ounce of effort, but that there is also a little dip and dive to it. Harvey's it pretty straight if you ask me, although you can't argue with the velocity from Harvey or the ease in which he pitches too. I also like Porcello's secondary pitches a little more, and I think he also commands his fastball, and other pitches, better than Harvey does. And I'm a little biased when it comes to Harvey because he reminds me a lot of guys like Mike Jones and Mark Rogers. Athletic frames, easy deliveries, very good velocity, but none of them at a similar stage in their career really received much high praise for their ability to pitch. Porcello isn't perfect in this regard either, but I think he's more advanced than Harvey (and Main for that matter).

Is this the longest Brewerfan.net thread ever? Now it ends. Since Suppan is inked, please take this discussion to the thread in the Major League forum.

I have received four lists so far. Thanks for the submissions, but keep them coming. I'm sure I'll receive a lot more after Christmas. And just so you know, Braun & Gallardo aren't 1-2 on everyone's list. I don't want to automatically speak for everyone by assingning a #1 and a #2, as that kind of goes against the idea of a fan poll. Keep in mind that since everyone's 1-20 aren't going to be the same, the final list is probably going to be 25-30 prospects deep.

I think X ellence's point has some merit, particularly based on the comments from Gord Ash, who mentioned that the Brewers tinkering of Rogers' delivery may have played a part of his shoulder injury. Anyway, a nice picture of Rogers is on BA's homepage this evening: http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/mrogers06428309jh.jpg

It's that time of year, time for everyone to submit a list of their top prospects, tally up the votes and see how the Brewers top prospects stack up based on the consensus. Here are the easy rules: 1. Make a list of your top 20 prospects. Simply rank them 1-20. 2. Be sure the players you rank are still considered prospects. No player with 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched at the big-league level qualify. 3. Email them to me (Patrick): pebert@brewerfan.net You have until midnight on January 1st, 2007 to submit your list. The player with the lowest average will be the team's #1 ranked prospect and so on and so forth. When I have all of the data compiled I will be turning this info into a homepage story for all to enjoy. So what are you waiting for? Get to it!

Welcome to the 2006-07 DFE (draft & follow candidates) resource thread. With several junior and community colleges starting their spring season at the end of the month in January, I figured it was time to create a thread fully supplied with links and other handy resources to make it easier for everyone to follow the DFE candidates that are eligible to sign with the Brewers up until a week before this June's draft. Feel free to post comments/updates within this thread. Keep in mind, with the new draft rules and the August 15th signing date to be instituted with the 2007 draft, this will be the last DFE class as the draft and follow process will effectively be eliminated. To view the stories, articles and pictures collected on these players from draft day from here at Brewerfan.net, please visit this thread: Brewerfan.net Draft Day page I want to point out that from my previous draft recap story from last fall, I incorrectly listed LHPs Marc Lewis (Creighton) and David Newmann (Texas A&M) as DFE candidates. Both had Tommy John surgery during their college careers, but neither is a fifth-year senior. Lewis is a true senior that didn't miss any time after having TJ surgery his sophomore year, while Newmann is a redshirt junior after missing 2005 and 2006. Big things are expected particularly for Newmann this year, who has regained his 90-95 heater and could be the Aggies' Friday ace. _____________________________________________________________ 12. Chad Robinson, RHP (Community College of Southern Nevada) http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/chad_robinson.jpg Robinson burst onto the scene with an impressive performance at the 2004 Perfect Game National showcase which followed his sophomore year in high school. Easily pumping a 88-90 mph fastball that had touched 94 and a promising curve to go along with his tall and strong build, Robinson immediately became a player to follow for '06. That led to his selection as an Aflac All-American. Unfortunately he injured his shoulder and had surgery to repair the labrum in his throwing shoulder which caused him to miss the Aflac game, and he only started pitching again late in the spring of 2006. His arm has rebounded well from surgery, already regaining velocity on his fastball touching the low-90s. Robinson also throws a very good changeup and a decent slider, although he has been almost all fastballs since returning from injury. He originally committed to UNLV, although the Brewers convinced him to attend the CC of Southern Nevada so they could continue to follow him via the DFE process. CCSN Baseball page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 17. Aaron Tullo, RHP (St. Petersburg College, FL) Tullo had Tommy John surgery and wasn't able to compete during his junior year in high school after turning a lot of heads during an impressive sophomore campaign. That campaign obviously left an impression early on the Brewers, who decided to follow Tullo into this spring after he rebounded well from the surgery last year, returning to throw his fastball in the 90 mph range. Now two years removed from surgery, his head coach at St. Petersburg College, Dave Pano, has told me that Tullo's fastball now touches the 92-94 range, and he is working hard to improve his curveball and changeup as well, of which he didn't throw much last spring given his rehab. He has a tall and strong 6'3", 200 pound frame that could make him an incredibly exciting pitching prospect to follow this spring. St. Petersburg College Baseball page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 19. Lee Haydel, CF (Delgado CC, LA) http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/lee_haydel.jpg Haydel is an extremely talented overall athlete, whose athletic prowess made him an exciting wide receiver/defensive back recruit for the LSU football team. The Brewers convinced Haydel to put his football career behind him while attending Delgado CC so they could continue to follow him as a draft and follow candidate. Haydel has speed to burn, and was one of the fastest players available for last year's draft. He has a perfect build, with long and rangy limbs that allow for plenty of room for added strength as he matures. His speed gives him exceptional range in centerfield, and he has a slightly above-average throwing arm. While there isn't much power in his swing at this point in time, more could develop, and right now his swing is tailored for contact which allows him to use his wheels to get on base and cause even more problems for opposing teams. Delgado CC Baseball page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 20. Mehdi Djebbar, LHP (Seminole State College, OK) http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/mehdi_djebbar2.jpg The second of five Canadians the Brewers drafted last June, Djebbar is a relatively raw left-handed pitcher from Quebec. Built relatively short and slender, he has broad shoulders and strong limbs that lend themselves to increased pitching development with time and maturation. His delivery is rather smooth and effortless, and he currently throws in the mid-to-upper 80s with rather good control for such a relatively unpolished pitcher. The Brewers have been following Djebbar for several years now, and expect the velocity on his fastball to continue to increase while also hoping he can find more consistency with his breaking ball and changeup. He is a native Algerian that has only been playing baseball for the past six to seven years. Seminole State College player profile Seminole State College Baseball page NJCAA Baseball page Google Pitching Video _____________________________________________________________ 27. T.J. Macy, RHP (Scottsdale CC, AZ) Built tall and strong with a prototypical workhorse frame at 6'4", 205 pounds, Macy has a 84" wingspan which gives him an even greater advantage as a pitcher, releasing his pitches to homeplate several inches closer than the average hurler. He is a very good athlete, excelling at both baseball and basketball in high school, where he starred as a internal force in the paint as a power forward. That natural athleticism leads to excitment towards Macy, who is working hard to repeat his delivery given his big body. He has a power arsenal, which led to 71 strikeouts last spring in 68 innings of work. Scottsdale CC Baseball page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 28. Terrell Alliman, OF (CC of Southern Nevada, NV) http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/terrell_alliman.jpg Alliman, a native of Waterloo, Ontario, played shortstop for Team Ontario, but is moving to centerfield as he moves on to attend the Community College of Southern Nevada, joining another Brewers DFE candidate, Chad Robinson. Alliman played for the tournament champion Reds Scout Team last fall at the WWBA World Championship in Jupiter, Florida. He has grown quite a bit over the last couple of years, going from a wiry thin shortstop and turning into a 6'3", 185 pound five-tool outfield prospect. Alliman has very good speed and range that serves him well on the basepaths, although he is still raw tracking fly balls in the outfield given his relative inexperience. He has a quick, slashing bat that could develop more power as he continues to fill out his growing frame. CCSN Baseball page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 31. Robert Bryson, RHP (Seminole CC, FL) http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/rob_bryson.jpg Bryson is a shorter yet strongly built 6'1", 200 pound right-handed pitcher that posted a 8-1 record his senior year in high school, tossing five complete games with a 1.00 ERA. Over 53 innings of work he struck out 97 and walked only 10, a tribute to the command of his fastball. The velocity on his heater continues to rise, as he was clocked consistently in the 92-93 range last fall. Bryson's secondary pitches need to catch up to the development of his fastball, but the foundation is there for both a solid breaking ball and changeup, and it's only a matter of experience and him becoming more comfortable with those pitches. He'll get that experience against quality competition as a regular starter in a very tough Florida junior college circuit, as he is one of the more exciting names to watch of the DFE candidates. Seminole CC player profile Seminole CC Baseball page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 32. Nicholas Tyson, RHP (Lake City CC, FL) Tyson was a teammate of Robert Bryson on the New Jersey Super 17 travel club. He is a 6'3", 180 pound right-handed pitcher. Like Bryson, Tyson will be a key starter in a very tough Florida junior college conference, and his Head Coach Tom Clark expects Tyson to open the season serving as the staff ace for Lake City Community College, a college the Brewers have mined several tmes before for talent. A tough competitor, he has good command of his fastball, which sits right around 90 mph with plenty of room for added velocity given his athletic, projectable frame, and he has a plus curveball when it is working for him that gives him two legitimate strikeout pitches. Added velocity and a more consistent feel for his curve this spring would make Tyson a likely candidate to sign with the Brewers. Lake City CC Baseball page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 36. Clay Jones, C (Shelton State CC, AL) http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/clay_jones.jpg Jones is a very good all-around athlete that starred in both football and in baseball in high school. Drew interest from several notable D1 programs as a classic drop-back passer. His arm strength was evident in both sports, as he was an all-state selection as a two-way player, drawing attention for both his arm on the mound and for his arm behind the plate. He was also one of eight high school sluggers invited to participate in a high school home run derby as part of the Southern League All-Star Game last summer. The combination of his arm strength and power potential has the Brewers excited about his abilities as a solid all-around catcher. He is somewhat unrefined, but the tools are there. Shelton State CC Baseball page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 38. Todd Fitzgerald, LHP (San Jose CC, CA) http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/todd_fitzgerald.jpg Fitzgerald enjoyed a very strong freshman season at San Jose City College, earning a rotation spot with an impressive fall performance. He went 3-3 on the season with a 3.53 ERA and showed his ability to miss bats by striking out 84 batters in 74 innings of work. He's a shorter (5'11", 170 pound) lefty with a solid three-pitch repertoire. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 80s, and he starred as both an outfielder and as a pitcher in high school. He has committed to play for the Cal Bears in 2008 should he not sign this spring or summer. San Jose CC Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 42. Matt Peck, RHP (Cowley College, KS) http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/matt_peck.jpg Peck is a 6', 200 pound right-handed pitcher built shorter yet strong, with a compact, no-nonsense delivery. He started last spring rather slow, getting knocked around a little bit, but he settled down about mid-season to finish the year 5-1 with a 4.06 ERA. His fastball sits in the upper-80s, and there is reason to believe that he will add a few ticks as he continues to hone his delivery. Peck also throws a very sharp curveball and a solid changeup, giving him a well-rounded three-pitch repertoire. He throws all three pitches for strikes, and even when he started last season slow he did a good job limiting the damage against him by being stingy giving up bases on balls. Peck could be Cowley College's best pitcher this spring, and he has already committed to Oklahoma State for the 2007-08 school year if he doesn't sign with the Brewers or later in the summer should he be drafted again. Cowley College player profile Cowley College Baseball Page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 44. Bryan Crosby, 3B (Cleveland State CC, TN) Crosby is an athletic, 6'1", 185 pound third baseman that has played for the East Tennessee Prospects travel team. Despite playing with several nagging injuries his senior year in high school, he still managed to hit .477 while hitting 10 doubles and six home runs. He also has some speed, swiping 12 bags on his way to being named first team All-District. Crosby's bat is by far his greatest tool, displaying a short and quick yet powerful stroke and generating a fair amount of bat speed. Expected to be fully healthy this spring, Crosby could put up some big numbers playing third base full time at Cleveland State. Cleveland State CC Baseball page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 45. Matthew Thompson, SS (Eastern Arizona College, AZ) http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/matthew_thompson.jpg Thompson has a perfect athletic baseball frame at 6'3", 195 pounds. He starred in both baseball and soccer in high school, showing his balance and coordination in both sports. That natural athleticism along with a strong arm and good range serves him well at shortstop, and his frame generates exciting power potential from a middle infielder. Despite that natural athleticism, almost every facet of Thompson's game is raw, and the Brewers are hoping that everything clicks for him this spring. Eastern Arizona College Baseball page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 46. Aaron Johnson, C (Lethbridge CC, Alberta, Canada, playing for Prairie Baseball Academy) Johnson is the fourth player in three years that has played for the Prairie Baseball Academy while attending Lethbridge Community College in Alberta, Canada, and the second catcher. Left-handed hitting catcher Chris Copot was a DFE candidate each of the past two years, while right-handed pitcher Ryan Patterson was followed up until the 2005 draft and outfielder Garrett Regan was followed up until last year's draft. Finding information on these players has always been difficult, as all we know are Johnson's measurables: He is a 6', 190 pound right-handed hitting catcher. Prairie Baseball Academy _____________________________________________________________ 47. Matthew Coburn, RHP (San Jacinto College, TX) http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/matthew_coburn.jpg Coburn has committed to play for pitching-rich TCU in 2008 should he not be signed this year, either by the Brewers or should he re-enter the draft this coming June. The Brewers lost another TCU recruit a few years ago, Jake Arrieta, who profiles to be selected in the first round of the 2007 draft after an impressive showing with Team USA last summer. Coburn has a very strong build at 6'1", 230 pounds and a power arsenal to match, although his stature will definitely draw some concern, so conditioning will always be an issue. San Jacinto College Baseball page San Jacinto College roster page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 48. Brandon Owens, RHP (Truett McConnell JC, GA) http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/brandon_owens.jpg Owens had surgery over the winter to remove three bone spurs in his pitching elbow. This surgery allowed him to avoid Tommy John surgery, and should allow Owens to pitch in some capacity this spring. He currently is on a rehab program, so the likelihood of him signing with the Brewers utlimately depends on how well his arm responds this spring. Owens was his high school team's best pitcher in leading them to the state playoffs as a high school senior, and is a good overall athlete that also starred as a hitter. Truett McConnell College Baseball page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 49. Nicholas Spears, SS (San Diego CC, CA) http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/nicholas_spears.jpg Spears has a smaller, lithe yet wiry frame with plenty of room to add more muscle as he continues to mature. He has naturally broad yet sloped shoulders, and a high, narrow waist that makes him look like a natural infielder. Spears finest attributes lie on defense, as he shows a strong arm, quick hands, smooth actions and an overall steady glove from the shortstop position. There isn't much power to his swing at this point in time, but he has good bat speed tailor-made for making consistent contact. While he's not a burner and isn't a huge stolen base threat, he is a solid base-runner. San Diego City College Baseball page _____________________________________________________________ 50. Ricky Alvernaz, 3B (Cisco JC, TX) http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y155/colbyjack/ricky_alvernaz.jpg Alvernaz is a live-armed infielder that could serve double-duty at Cisco JC. A good natural athlete, his arm and athleticism profiles well at the hot corner, and he has also seen some time in the outfield during his high school career, playing for the White Rock Titans of the British Columbia Premier Baseball League. Alvernaz has a large 6'3", 190 frame that leads many to believe that he could develop power at the plate to match his arm in the infield. He has good bat speed and can crush good fastballs, but he does struggle to recognize and make contact with offspeed stuff. Alvernaz' conditioning is also somewhat in question, and he could stand to improve his footspeed. He played with fellow DFE canidate Mehdi Djebbar on Canada's junior national team last summer. Cisco Junior College Baseball page NJCAA Baseball page _____________________________________________________________

Thanks for the head's up on Crosby. The north-central part of Illinois is loaded with top pitchers for next year, including Zawacki, whom I know you know well, and Seth Blair. I hope to get down and see a Blair-Zawacki matchup next May, as it could be a very exciting matchup.

I really like Kentrail Davis, and I think more and more people are starting to like his overall game and package of tools despite not having the best baseball body. Here's what I wrote about him after the Aflac game: Kentrail Davis Davis stepped up to the plate and I thought I was watching Kirby Puckett. Short and stout, Davis defies his stature by showing off good power, quick hands, solid bat speed, and impressive foot speed. During the game he walked and hit an infield single, swiping a bag each time he was on base. Davis also shows good range in the outfield and an average arm at worse. He may not be the 6?4?, 200-pound athlete scouting directors pine for, but you know what you?re getting in Davis. Here's his Brewerfan.net profile: www.brewerfan.net/ViewAma...;draftId=5 I don't know as much about DJ Jones, but here is his profile from Perfect Game's '06 National Showcase: www.perfectgame.org/playe...eID=06natl PG Crosschecker has him rated as the 71st best prep player, and tossed out a comparison to Jay Bruce for his lefty bat and his all around tools. I think the comparison falls short in that Porcello has a special, special FB. Agreed. I have Porcello as the top prep pitching prospect available due to his fastball, which I like better than Harvey's. And speaking of prospects, there are now 50 '07 draft eligible prospects entered into the Brewerfan.net database. To access it, click on "Draft" in the maroon sub-nav bar at the top of the page, click on "2007" from the drop-down menu of past years, and then select "All" from the drop-down menu of the player profiles. Or just follow this link: www.brewerfan.net/ViewDra...;draftId=5 Please disregard the rankings at this point in time, as they need to be updated.

Yeah, I'm with Blazer, I'm not sure where you're getting you're info on Alderson, but it's certainly not from me. Here's what I wrote about him after the Aflac game, and as Blazer noted, people have seen him better: Tim Alderson Alderson and Runion opened my eyes more than any other player. Alderson used all of nine pitches to get out of the fourth inning, the only pitcher in the game that didn?t allow a single baserunner. He employs somewhat of a violent, herky-jerky delivery that creates a fair amount of deception and seems to make his stuff faster than it actually is. Alderson spotted his low 90s sinking fastball extremely well, and once he set batters up with that pitch, he put them away with a nasty, nasty slider. Yet another pitcher with a big, strong frame, the sky is the limit for Alderson. Allow me to say that Alderson wasn't the only pitcher to not allow a baserunner, as Josh Smoker did so to close the game for the East squad. And while a low-90s fastball isn't in the realm of Porcello, Harvey and Main, the amount of movement it has makes it just as good of a power pitch. I know Blazer like myself puts as much emphasis on movement as velocity. And for what it's worth, I think guys like Alderson, Runion, Peavey, Goeddel and Ramirez have a pretty good chance to be better than the power trio of Harvey, Porcello and Main because those guys know how to pitch. From what I've seen, heard and read of the power trio is that they really struggle with this part of their games, too often relying on their power fastball, which none of them commands well consistently. When Alderson, Runion, Peavey, Goeddel and Ramirez don't have their best stuff, they can always fall back on other tried and true measures of getting batters out. However, Alderson is nothing like Homer Bailey, unless you're trying to say that Alderson will be as good of a prospect some day as Bailey is now, which I can't argue with. Size and stuff-wise, he is very similar to Chris Volstad. EDIT: I think I catch your comparison to Bailey now, which has more to do with geography than size, stuff or anything else. Although I would argue that Rainville was one heck of a pure pitcher in high school. If anything, he lacked physical projection, not pitchability, given his stocky build, much like Sean O'Sullivan.

Jones was ranked the top prep player entering the 2001 draft season, but dropped that spring when his velocity dipped and he didn't show much of a breaking ball. I also seem to remember him having some tendonitis in his throwing arm or something like that, but I could be way off. It probably wasn't fair of me to lump Jones with Rogers as far as being taken as early as they would have been, as there were some pre-draft rumors that Jones could have gone in the 8-10 range (I believe the Brewers drafted 11th or 12th that year). I'm probably still bitter that the Brewers didn't take Casey Kotchman because I felt there was no way in Hades that Kotchman would fall that far. Jones was a top 5 guy entering the spring, but not on draft day. Gavin Floyd passed him up as the best prep pitching prospect about mid-spring. And yes, the Brewers did note that they liked Rogers because his arm was relatively fresh. In defense of the Brewers scouting department, they have always like tools early and often in the draft. Their philosophy is to take the best player available, and they clearly love themselves some tools. When it comes to tools, few players compared with Rogers, who easily threw in the mid-90s and had (has) a pretty wicked breaking ball. The delivery wasn't the best, but that is something everyone always believes they can correct. His athleticism was also off the charts, as noted, as he was a multiple-sport star in high school, with some varying reports of just how good he was in hockey (and soccer). I have seen it many times where talent overcomes everything else, and as the saying goes, you can't teach things like throwing a upper-90s fastball or running like the wind. It's hard to project that scrappy guy that just competes his tail off, but I don't think anyone is suggesting that the Brewers start selecting that scrappy guy. I think what people are suggesting that they weigh projection versus risk, particularly when you rely so heavily on building your entire organization, including the big-league club, through the draft and drop $2-$2.5 million on these early draft picks. I can't fault the Brewers too much for taking Rogers over Bailey, despite Bailey being ranked better by most scouting publications, since it was reported that many teams had Rogers higher than Bailey on their draft boards. I can fault them for taking Rogers over Sowers. As I noted above, while Sowers didn't have the prototypical arsenal that defines your usual staff ace, he got batters out like staff aces do. Barry Zito is a good example of a team reaching to find a pitcher they felt could be successful at the highest level (and taking Sowers 5th overall in '04 wouldn't have even been a reach). I'm sure if you ask the A's they would admit they had no clue Zito would be as good as he was, but I know they were pretty confident he would be a pretty good big-league pitcher. That's what I want the Brewers to do with their first-round pick, should they choose to take a pitcher. Find the guy that can pitch, the guy that can pitch even when he doesn't have his best stuff and the guy that has relatively low injury risk. I really don't care if that guy if from college or high school, but college guys obviously have gotten through a few extra key "injury nexus" years, although the college draftees are far from prone to injuries.

I'm definitely not shocked, and I think most of us were pretty much of the opinion that if he did have shoulder surgery, that he'd be missing the 2007 season, despite what Gord said in the first article. I'm not shocked either, I'm just pointing out that it sounds as though the injury is a lot worse that what was originally suspected. I know the bandwagon wants to quit drafting High school pitchers---I'm not quite there yet---because i really want to see one of these guys work out...I guess I just think trades are the way to go with pitching...the brewers have the hardest time developing pitchers, and honestly, I'm sick of it... I'm not opposed to drafting high school pitchers, but I am pretty close to being opposed to them in the first round. As noted in a different thread regarding Jeremy Jeffress, I didn't oppose that pick because his value was greater than the spot he was selected, meaning he was expected to be taken earlier. Rogers and Jones were taken pretty much as high as they were going to, particularly Rogers. I agree though that trades seem to be the way to go, and it is how Melvin has acquired Capuano, Bush, Ohka and even Villanueva, and hopefully Vargas can follow suit. I really hope the Brewers reconsider their strategy in the future. At least a bit. And they really need to go over what they're looking for when drafting High Schoolers since it's not working very well. Well stated, as always Robert. I've mentioned endless times before that the Brewers need to start evaluating one's ability to pitch if they are going to take such a risk with hard throwers. Guys like Gallardo and Inman, who did have a reputation of knowing how to pitch coming out of high school, have progressed so much more quickly, which really shouldn't be that big of a surprise.

As already discussed on the MLB forum, a new story in the MJS that talks about Rogers having surgery. This story has gone from the surgery should be minor and they expect Rogers to pitch in 2007 to it seems likely he will miss all of 2007. I'm guessing that second opinion the first story talked about didn't go as well as hoped. Not good. Please Brewers, learn your lesson from this one. www.jsonline.com/story/in...?id=543258 Rogers faces surgery Assistant general manager Gord Ash said right-hander Mark Rogers is headed for shoulder surgery after getting a second opinion and a new set of tests. Rogers was the Brewers' first-round draft pick in 2004 and pitched last season at Class A Brevard County. "In all likelihood, he will be a surgical candidate," Ash said. "There appears to be no value to conservative treatment at this point." Ash said Rogers' surgery probably will be in early January. He is expected to miss most if not all of the 2007 season.

I just want to point out that Jeff Suppan, whom the Brewers are reportedly pursuing, is one of three remaining type A free agents, meaning the Brewers would lose their second-round pick if they sign him. That would not stop me at all from doing so, I just wanted to point that out. No compensation for Ohka, Graffy, and the possibility of losing the team's 2nd round pick shows just how hard it is to predict what picks a certain team will have where. So much more comes into play, and usually it has everything to do with money.

although Colby, wasn't there another rather polished lefty in recent years who hasn't reached the big leagues yet? I want to say there was someone we all liked, like Sowers, but who has been derailed by injuries. I think you may be thinking of Ricky Romero, now with the Blue Jays organization who was taken right after Braun was in '05, and like Sowers, Romero was definitely on the Brewers radar (unlike Sowers vs. Rogers, I don't think anyone can argue against the Braun pick). Romero was a favorite of mine, and I tuned into many of his Friday night starts at CS Fullerton, but he never approached my man-love for Sowers, who I have been all over since his high school days (even more so than Casey Kotchman, as I knew Sowers was intent on going to college). Romero missed the first month of last year with some stiffness in his elbow, but that injury was never considered to be that serious. He pitched well enough at high-A to get a bump up to AA, where he initially struggled, but finished strong. And if you take a peak at his final AA numbers his peripheral stats are actually quite strong if you can look past his 5.08 ERA. I think one thing we liked about Sowers was that due to lower velocity, he didn't seem as likely to get hurt. I honestly have never taken this into consideration. While it always seems like hard throwers are the first ones to go under the knife early and often, no pitcher is immune to such problems no matter how they throw. Agreed on Anderson, although he did sign with the D-Backs, for just under $1M IIRC. I don't mean to apply my usual kiss of death on the kid, but my fave lefty for next year is Jack McGeary of Massachusetts (note that he isn't my favorite overall prospect, just my favorite LHP). I've already bugged Mass Haas plenty about getting the skinny on this kid. Like Sowers, he's committed to a high academic institution (Stanford), and has a knack for pitching.

Jeff Niemann has bounced back pretty well too, and pitched his way to AA this past year, so it would be hard to argue against him (had he been available of course). If the Brewers had Sowers right now they wouldn't even have to worry about going after someone like Suppan. I'd like to say hindsight is 20/20, but there were many of us that knew Sowers would be this good this fast, so these comments aren't even based off of hindsight. I do know that Sowers was on the Brewers short-list in '04, but that doesn't do them any good now.

If I were good at odds & percentages I'd be working in Vegas http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . I wish I knew. A lot of people in this thread sound pretty optimistic.

Yeah, I know you didn't like those Rice guys (except for Baker of course).

I'm jumping in really late to this discussion, and I'm not going to add anything new, but I really like the idea of adding Suppan. I remember having this discussion as we reviewed the free-agent-list-to-be when the season was still going on, and Suppan was a name that stuck out to me. I never thought the Cardinals would let him go to be honest, and I like the fact that he not only is a good pitcher, but they would be weakening an opponent while turning one of the team's biggest individual foes into a teammate. I agree that his numbers (like the FIP stuff being tossed out there) suggests that the Cardinals good defense definitely helped him, but I would argue that a good defense helps any pitcher. As for the number of pitchers that have gone on only to struggle after working with the Cards pitching coach, Duncan, it's not like the Brewers have a slouch in Maddux, who seems to work well with guys like Suppan. Get it done Doug. The Brewers starting five on paper would be pretty encouraging. As several have noted this entire offseason, having Villanueva as the team's 6th starter would be a lot better than having him as the team's 5th starter. He'll be needed soon enough, plus the team really didn't have a competent long-man out of the pen last year given Helling's early injury issues.

It's one thing to rag on the Rogers pick, but if you do so at least bring up the guy the Brewers should have really taken: Jeremy Sowers. While Bailey is a top prospect, Sowers was already mowing down big-league hitters last spring http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . Here's to Rogers bouncing back and proving all of us wrong. As for the rankings, nice to see Yo and Braun so high, and actually 45 is a pretty nice spot for Rogers as well. I'm sure they will be ranked in similar positions once BA's top 100 list is released in a few months.

Baseball America reported this as well last week: www.baseballamerica.com/t...62999.html That's good news, probably more so for Canadian players than anyone else, especially since the DFE process will be put to rest.

When you're picking at 5 or 7, though, I think the calculus needs to be a bit different, particularly if you're a team without multiple picks in the first two rounds. Throwing away a pick is all that much more painful when you are passing on some very good talents and also have to wait forty or fifty slots before you get another. Thus I am happier with the Jeffress pick than I was with Rogers. Well put SoCal. I never had a problem with Jeffress because he was a relative steal at where the Brewers selected him. I heard some rumors in the spring that the Brewers would take Jeffress if he fell to them, something they didn't expect to happen. I wouldn't have as big of a problem with the Brewers taking prep pitchers in the first round if they took pitchers that had a combination of stuff and savvy. All of the pitchers that have crashed and burned have actually done so because of injury more so than anything else, but even a college guy (one that went to Yale to boot) like Jon Steitz was more about his pure stuff than his ability to pitch. This is why I liked Jeremy Sowers so much, and it's no surprise he had a very good rookie year for the Indians next year and should continue to succeed. The Brewers should take a page from their own big-league team and look at guys like Capuano, Bush and the recently departed Davis and realize that you don't have to throw 95-100 to be a very good pitcher. I know the Brewers are tryinig to hit a home run on each of their first round picks, but at some point I feel they are going to kill themselves if they don't take a safer approach when it comes to pitching. I agree that it is basically the top 10 picks and then every other pick, so hopefully after next June this isn't even an issue.

Here's the list for the Rangers, which was up two days ago: www.baseballamerica.com/t...62987.html John Danks at the top, and overall the Rangers are pitching heavy. Not too many impact bats on the way up, and a few of the top pitchers hit a few bumps in the road last year. Danks is a good prospect, but I'm not fond of their depth.

While we have heard about how the ball explodes out of Mark Rogers' hand, how Mike Jones' delivery is flawless, how good JM Gold's curveball was, etc., Jeffress is a very good, athletic prospect whose delivery is about as smooth as they come. He played basketball in high school as well, and was his team's leading scorer as a point guard. Throwing 101 without breaking a sweat is pretty impressive as well. He's not a pitcher though at this point in time, which always concerns me, and while his slider projects as a plus-pitch, it's not very consistent, and there isn't much of a changeup right now. These are things that can develop, as Gallardo didn't have much of a changeup when the Brewers drafted him either, but I do wish the Brewers placed more emphasis on one's ability to pitch rather than just gaudy radar readings. That said, I do think Jeffress was a solid pick where the Brewers took him. I heard about mid-spring that the Brewers were ready to jump on Jeffress if he fell to them, and having that kind of arm fall to the 16th spot is a pretty good pick for value. With the 7th overall pick next year, Jeffress is the type of pitcher I personally would avoid, just like I would have avoided Mark Rogers with the 5th pick in 2004. I think there's a good chance Jeffress is pushed up to West Virginia to open '07, as Rogers was pushed a few short years ago. Reportedly Jeffress' mechanics don't need the kind of overhaul that Rogers' did, so hopefully that is a good thing moving forward, as he can focus on throwing strikes with what already works for him.

In the most recent Baseball America, they report that Erik Cordier had Tommy John surgery in September, and likely will miss all of 2007. Bummer for Cordier. Here's to a healthy and successful recovery.

I commented above about how the WV rotation looks to be pretty thin, which was pretty much the problem with the Helena squad last summer. There are some intriguing names not mentioned that are likely ticketed for Helena next summer, and a few of those players (Jeffress, Anundsen, Hill, Ramirez) are darkhorses to make the Power squad. Add in a few other promising pitchers that are more likely to be at the rookie level (Pascual, Mercedes, Seidel), as well as all of the pitchers Toby has projected to be at AAA, AA and A+, and I don't think there is any reason to load up on pitchers in the draft just because one level, West Virginia, doesn't look as good on paper at this point in time. Actually, I'm pretty excited about the overall depth as it makes the link reports a lot more exciting to follow from day to day when there are so many intriguing names to follow. I remember a few years ago when you waited four days twiddling your thumbs in between Neugebauer starts. Of course, if the Brewers do target pitching early and often next June with the idea of seeing what sticks as LouisEly suggests, I certianly won't have a problem with that since no matter what the depth looks like, you can never have too many pitchers.